Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[fci]

I think the way this year has been anything that still may form out in the Central or Eastern Atlantic will recurve and be a fish. The fronts are getting stronger and having a strong Bermuda high seems alittle far fetched since we haven't had one of any significence this season. Any threat to the US will be in the Gulf or Caribbean if shear doesn't kill it come October. If I'm wrong about 96L recurving if it forms I'll eat duck instead of crow since I don't like duck.

Meaning you like Crow?

Personally I like Duck, especially Peking Duck with some plum sauce.

[sma10]

Let the honking begin....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_360l.gif

Please remember....this is a 360 HOUR forecast position with the GFS.

[fci]

I am so glad that you posted this at 1:22 AM so the comments will be few and far between for a while!

Just the kind of fuel to send "The Usual Suspects" into hyperventilation mode.
Many of us can name them right off the bat and exactly what they will say.

Oh boy, strap your seal belts tight when they see this!!!!

[sma10]

I am so glad that you posted this at 1:22 AM so the comments will be few and far between for a while!

Just the kind of fuel to send "The Usual Suspects" into hyperventilation mode.
Many of us can name them right off the bat and exactly what they will say.

I actually posted this for entertainment value only

Don't worry, though. By the time most see this link, the 6Z will already be out, and it will be showing something completely different.

[mtm4319]

I am so glad that you posted this at 1:22 AM so the comments will be few and far between for a while!

Just the kind of fuel to send "The Usual Suspects" into hyperventilation mode.
Many of us can name them right off the bat and exactly what they will say.

I actually posted this for entertainment value only

Don't worry, though. By the time most see this link, the 6Z will already be out, and it will be showing something completely different.

Not if someone saves the pic...

[sma10]

Not if someone saves the pic...

Hee, hee! If the GFS actually verified, it would mean a CV wave will develop immediately off the coast of Africa on Sep 22nd, traverse the entire Atlantic (this season of all seasons) and strike South Florida on October 6th. Any takers on this bet?

[Brent]

Not if someone saves the pic...

Hee, hee! If the GFS actually verified, it would mean a CV wave will develop immediately off the coast of Africa on Sep 22nd, traverse the entire Atlantic (this season of all seasons) and strike South Florida on October 6th. Any takers on this bet?

Good laugh before bed.

[superfly]

Hee, hee! If the GFS actually verified, it would mean a CV wave will develop immediately off the coast of Africa on Sep 22nd, traverse the entire Atlantic (this season of all seasons) and strike South Florida on October 6th. Any takers on this bet?

Depends, what kind of odds do I get? If it's 1000/1 which is about what it should be, I'll put a buck on it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If there was going to be a LLC, I would watch around 13 north/34.8. That is the area where the sharp tropical waves flow(Clouds)are moving around it. This system looks to be getting a little bit more organized. Also theres a small little area of convection ahead of it around 45 west that has some spin.(YES maybe it should be laughed at)

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210906
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THE
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[WindRunner]

06Z models take it to 87kts and beyond, with a TS in less than 24h . . . of course it's going to need a serious boost in organization before that could even think of happening.

WHXX01 KWBC 210600
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060921 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 0600 060921 1800 060922 0600 060922 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 33.3W 11.4N 34.8W 12.4N 36.4W 13.6N 38.0W
BAMM 10.7N 33.3W 11.2N 34.6W 12.2N 36.0W 13.5N 37.4W
A98E 10.7N 33.3W 11.6N 36.1W 12.1N 38.8W 12.7N 41.1W
LBAR 10.7N 33.3W 11.5N 35.8W 12.7N 38.4W 14.2N 41.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 0600 060924 0600 060925 0600 060926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 39.6W 17.5N 42.3W 18.6N 44.9W 19.3N 48.7W
BAMM 15.1N 38.8W 17.9N 41.0W 19.1N 43.2W 19.4N 47.6W
A98E 13.6N 42.8W 15.1N 46.1W 16.1N 49.6W 17.2N 54.0W
LBAR 16.1N 43.5W 20.4N 46.2W 23.4N 45.7W 24.8N 44.5W
SHIP 63KTS 79KTS 84KTS 87KTS
DSHP 63KTS 79KTS 84KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 30.4W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 27.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Ha!

However, considering this season, it just might happen.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Please do not take this as anything:

Each of the models do show a significant change in the overall "pattern." For instance, every one of the above linked models show a Canadian H moving off the coast in the 4-5 day range and reinforcing the ridging in the Atlantic. There is also the absence of a front on the EC. Not all of them are 6z runs however. Also, any "disturbance" will have to run the gauntlet and likely not make it. The CMC and the GFS are the only two showing any type of significant cyclone development.

[Kerry04]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Please do not take this as anything:

Each of the models do show a significant change in the overall "pattern." For instance, every one of the above linked models show a Canadian H moving off the coast in the 4-5 day range and reinforcing the ridging in the Atlantic. There is also the absence of a front on the EC. Not all of them are 6z runs however. Also, any "disturbance" will have to run the gauntlet and likely not make it. The CMC and the GFS are the only two showing any type of significant cyclone development.

So what type of "pattern" are the models hinting at?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Most of the models show the high rebuilding. 96L a possible non-fish?

[Meso]

CMC isn't showing developement,do you mean the MM5? Sure is showing more ridging though than earlier in the season..the latest gfs at 384 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_384s.gif

[Meso]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

Gfdl is now run for the invest,and it's calling for fishy

[boca]

The way this year is turning out no one should be suprised if 96L is a fish, it should be the other way around tracking westward against all odds. Not this year folks.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_96.gif

[superfly]

By the way, the system GFS has crossing the Atlantic is not 96L, it's the wave after it.

[Blown Away]

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.