Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[hurricanetrack]

It looks like 96L will indeed turn northwest and then eventually recurve whether it develops or not. It is likely to develop according to the various models, but should stay well out to sea.

That being said, the GFS develops the next wave to emerge from Africa and brings it all the way across to near Florida throughout its long 384 hour run. Of course, beyond 5 days, who knows...but perhaps this will be the one to break the cycle of recurving tropical cyclones. Perhaps not. It looks to me like the convection about to hit the water would be part of this next tropical wave. I will be curious as to how this evolves- we just might have something to really keep an eye on here over the next few days.

[boca]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 06 GFS has our system turning north in the Bahamas at 384 hours.

[cycloneye]

Defintly if this verifies is a big change from the fish tracks of the systems so far this season,even if it misses the U.S.

[boca]

If this were to track west and not recurve most people would bet that these other systems we had earlier would track west and this one would of recurved due to climatology and that were getting closer to Oct and a system to track across the Atlantic at the end of Sept is rather remote because of stronger troughs catching the systems as they roll off Africa and increasing shear.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

The 06 GFS has our system turning north in the Bahamas at 384 hours.

A fan of the crow/duck.

[boca]

Hey Nathan we can use your grill.

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey Nat we can use your grill.

I know just pulling your leg. You bring the beers

[SouthFloridawx]

Just sitting there off shore... Does it remind you of any system in particular?

Boca you need to look at your loops more carefully. It doesn't move it north of the bahamas at the end of the run. Eventhough it's 15 days out

[SouthFloridawx]

The other interesting thing about the GFS is that it holds a ridge in place through the next 6 days. When was the last time it did that?

[boca]

The last frame in the 06GFS has it turning north in the Bahamas no westward componet last 2 frames. Lets see what the next model runs do. Hey you still probably have the MGD beer in the fridge.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry folks but this forecast model more than likely will not pan out. It's getting very late in the ballgame and once you get into October the odds plummet. Yeah I know anything can happen but that was more the case in 2005 than in 2006. I'm cautiously optimistic that the "average" season will continue and all we have is some more fish storms. I would not rule out a GOM TS or minimal hurricane forming in October though.

[superfly]

The last frame in the 06GFS has it turning north in the Bahamas no westward componet last 2 frames. Lets see what the next model runs do. Hey you still probably have the MGD beer in the fridge.

There's a high right over it in the last frame, it's not going anywhere except west if it verifies. BIG if at this point.

[SouthFloridawx]

The last frame in the 06GFS has it turning north in the Bahamas no westward componet last 2 frames. Lets see what the next model runs do. Hey you still probably have the MGD beer in the fridge.

Ok ever so slightly north... you make it sound like it's going out to sea. Either way I don't know why we're squabbling about GFS 15 Days out.

[Frank2]

As cycloneye mentioned, the pattern does seem to change over the next week or two - this was also mentioned last evening on NBCWP.

Keep your eye on the "I"...

Frank

[SouthFloridawx]

ECM builds a pretty decent ridge out there also.



As does Nogaps.

[boca]

Lets see if something develops first,these models mean nothing if future 97L doesn't develop.

[caneman]

As does CMC. I was going to mention this last night. Most models I've seen have a ridge in place by 144 hours.

[hurricanetrack]

Regarding these two runs not panning out, that is entirely possible. The 12Z run might show a turn up 60 or 70 and all the excitement leaves the building- perhaps only until the next run. This is what makes this phenomenon so interesting, there are rarely easy answers. I just thought it was interesting to see several of the models showing at least some kind of tropical energy moving west for a much longer period of time than we have seen. And as far as October having less odds, if this thing develops before October 1, then the odds would still be September odds, right? Just a change in the month won't necessarily kill this thing off- if it ever gets going at all. We shall see. At least we have something to track as of late.

[Evil Jeremy]

notice how some of the models do go NW before turning back West!

[gatorcane]

South Florida definitely needs to watch these developments as the models are somewhat consistent in bringing this tropical system into South Florida from the east