Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[boca]

Was this the 00utc or the 06utc GFS?

[SWFLA_CANE]

That was the 00 it has already changed at 06. It now takes it to the northern edge of Cuba and then turns it north through the Bahamas. It will change a lot in the coming days if it even remains depicting a storm at all.

[Thunder44]

By the way, the system GFS has crossing the Atlantic is not 96L, it's the wave after it.

Yes, it in fact has a weakness in the ridge over the Central Atlantic for 96L to escape to the NE, which is what is shown.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060921 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060921 1200 060922 0000 060922 1200 060923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 34.3W 12.9N 36.1W 14.2N 37.7W 16.0N 39.4W
BAMM 12.0N 34.3W 12.7N 35.9W 13.8N 37.5W 15.2N 39.1W
A98E 12.0N 34.3W 12.8N 36.7W 13.6N 39.0W 14.7N 40.8W
LBAR 12.0N 34.3W 13.0N 36.5W 14.4N 38.8W 16.1N 41.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060923 1200 060924 1200 060925 1200 060926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 40.8W 22.3N 41.8W 25.0N 40.5W 26.4N 40.5W
BAMM 16.7N 40.5W 19.4N 42.3W 20.6N 44.2W 21.9N 47.4W
A98E 16.1N 42.3W 18.7N 44.8W 21.1N 46.7W 23.7N 48.8W
LBAR 18.2N 43.1W 22.9N 44.3W 25.3N 42.5W 26.0N 41.3W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 73KTS 72KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 73KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 34.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 29.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

By the way, the system GFS has crossing the Atlantic is not 96L, it's the wave after it.

Yes, it in fact has a weakness in the ridge over the Central Atlantic for 96L to escape to the NE, which is what is shown.

If 96L does not develop the Tropical Wave will continue to move westward but, if a closed circulation forms and has convection it probably would recurve but, who is to say for sure at this point.

[gtalum]

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.

Right up Tampa Bay as a 700 mile diameter 200 mph Category 5 monster. You heard it here first, folks.

[boca]

Hey who turned off the Tampa Bay forcefield!!!

[wxman57]

http://img169.imageshack.us/img169/2483/gfs360hz1.png

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.

Right up Tampa Bay as a 700 mile diameter 200 mph Category 5 monster. You heard it here first, folks.

That's not 96L, that's the system still over Africa that the GFS is picking up on. 96L is turned out to sea very quickly by the GFS.

[LaBreeze]

[boca]

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.

Right up Tampa Bay as a 700 mile diameter 200 mph Category 5 monster. You heard it here first, folks.

That's not 96L, that's the system still over Africa that the GFS is picking up on. 96L is turned out to sea very quickly by the GFS.

That senario most likely will not verify since it will be Oct by then and how many system track in from the east or southeast in Oct.

[gatorcane]

I bet it it's a Cat 5 to boot.

Right up Tampa Bay as a 700 mile diameter 200 mph Category 5 monster. You heard it here first, folks.

That's not 96L, that's the system still over Africa that the GFS is picking up on. 96L is turned out to sea very quickly by the GFS.

That senario most likely will not verify since it will be Oct by then and how many system track in from the east or southeast in Oct.

Wouldn't surprise me a bit. It seems like things the seasons are "off" this year. Remember summer really didn't get going until the end of June and it wouldn't surprise me that maybe the peak this year shifts a bit later despite this big trough that came through.

That trough did NOTHING to SSTs around the GOM and Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Ok,Folks,let's not post the same quote of the graphic as it's getting very long.

[gatorcane]

sorry Luis.....

[jstewholymoly]

The long-range GFS animation shows it curving up towards the Carolinas. I WISH it would hit tampa bay.

Here's a link:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/anima ... &file=anim

long time away...

[cycloneye]

455
ABNT20 KNHC 211510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HELENE...LOCATED ABOUT 505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Blown Away]

Most of the models show the high rebuilding. 96L a possible non-fish?

Most of the models have 96L N of 20 before it gets to 50W, highly likely 96L will remain out to sea!

[Thunder44]

Floater 1 is on this system now. Also the SSD page is has this titled "Invest 96L"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

[skufful]

The long-range GFS animation shows it curving up towards the Carolinas. I WISH it would hit tampa bay.

Here's a link:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/anima ... &file=anim

long time away...

14 and bored, huh?

[Meso]

12z CMC model run

Interesting

[storms in NC]

12z CMC model run

Interesting

would ride under the ridge. Looks like up the east coast then out