9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak

[simplykristi]

That storm is headed towards Mound City and Pleasanton KS. I am going to be riding down thru there a week form tomorrow.

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

Wonder if there will be more severe weather then?

[WindRunner]

I agree, that cell is quite intense. Surprised there are no warnings on it. Mind you, there isn't a well-defined hook, but at least a Severe Thunderstorm Warning should be on that cell...

It wouldn't be for hail, as the storm at its best had a Maximum Estimated Hail Size of about .68" . . . i.e. not severe. And since the conditions aren't that great for a wind threat, it was probably just a nasty storm and not even fitting the calmer definitions of severe.

[simplykristi]

I dunno I am going to go look outside and see if I can see any lightning off in the distance.

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

TVS now on that cell in Kansas, SW of Mound City.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783...

VALID 220050Z - 220245Z

21Z VERSION OF THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN DEPICTING
STRONGER TSTM INITIATION ACROSS SERN OK FROM HASKELL SWWD TO
MARSHALL COUNTIES IN OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO
WCNTRL AR LATER THIS EVE. PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE METROPLEX REGION.

00Z MESOANALYSIS TIME-SERIES CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH LA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST
SERN OK AND SWRN AR BY MIDNIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
DESTABILIZATION...00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE EXISTS JUST
ABOVE H7 AND MAY TEMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES.
NONETHELESS...0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED.

ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN END OF THE DEVELOPING LINE SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL AR.
STRONGER...LIKELY SFC-BASED STORMS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK AND
WCNTRL/SWRN AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL
WW MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SWRN AR TO
THE EAST OF WT 782/783 BY 02-03Z.

..RACY.. 09/22/2006


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34109664 35209525 35659399 35249300 34379280 33899326
33819553

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782...

VALID 220058Z - 220300Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES/HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR
FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 782 INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MO/NORTHWEST AR.

SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF TORNADO WATCH 782 IN CENTRAL KS...AS OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE KS TURNPIKE. GRADUAL INFLUX OF
MODESTLY RICHER THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WITH OBJECTIVE
DIAGNOSTICS AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECTIVE OF MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...TO 1000-1250 J/KG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY...HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 MS/S2 OR
GREATER WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.

ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS CURRENTLY A CONCERN EAST OF WW 782 /REF
00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR.
LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY MODESTLY
DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME.

..GUYER.. 09/22/2006


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36949698 38029531 37299360 36079354 35489480 35139621
35239710

[WindRunner]

MASSIVE hook w/ strong couplet on Atoka county cell now . . . pic in a second.

[WindRunner]

Here . . . and new volume in, hook is less impressive, though couplet is just as good:

[CrazyC83]

That has to be a tornado on the ground...

[simplykristi]

Too bad it is dark down there.

Kristi

[CrazyC83]

Looks especially bad near Red Oak, OK now...

[TexasStooge]

The Tornado Watch that was isued for the northern 2/3rds of North Texas has been cancelled, however the watch is still in effect for Fannin, Grayson, Lamar and Red River Counties until Midnight.

[WindRunner]

The Le Flore County, OK SVR really should be a TOR right now, IMO, but I'll let you guys decide. Here's the 0217Z scan:




Volume of area defined by white box in above image:


You can clearly see at least an arc in the volume image, probably rotating, as the arc is very near a possible couplet location and is extending where the hook would be. Far from a certainty, but it is still better to play it safe, especially this soon after the Rogers tornado.

[CrazyC83]

No kidding, that is really intense...

[wxmann_91]

SRH values just a little high...



Or should I say, OFF THE CHARTS!!

[CrazyC83]

Is that current, or expected tomorrow?

[CrazyC83]

Courtesy of easternuswx.com, user jhamps10:

BOLD statement by STL nws HWO!!!!

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

INDICATIONS ARE THAT ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...THE MEDIA AND SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND BEGIN MAKING PREPARATIONS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

I don't even think they were this bold before the March tornado outbreaks, just a little perspective on that. IMO here, I'd expect an high risk to be issued in the morning.

[jhamps10]

excuse me crazy, but you quoted me WORD FOR WORD from easternuswx. I find it wrong for people to quote me without using credit. thank you.

[CrazyC83]

excuse me crazy, but you quoted me WORD FOR WORD from easternuswx. I find it wrong for people to quote me without using credit. thank you.

Sorry, I will take credit. I added "Courtesy of (your name)".