NW Pacific: Typhoon Yagi (0614)

[Dave C]

It definately is a powerhouse. If it curves more quickly to the north, the Bonin Islands would be harder hit, a more gradual turn would directly hit Iwa Jima. The eye has that dark, hazey look that powerfull storms have.

[P.K.]

Now as strong as any system in this basin all year.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.5N 146.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 170NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 24.9N 141.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
48HF 231200UTC 29.8N 141.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 241200UTC 35.9N 147.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[wxmann_91]

Well, I know the SSD aren't going to move the floater again, but for the sake of calamity, I, and Category 5 (maybe), anybody know of another site where we can have closeup satellite images of Yagi (Besides NRL and SSD, and closeup, not zoomed out).

Thanks... I've got to go to school now.

[P.K.]

First 110kt TY since TY Chaba in 2004 I believe.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 22.6N 144.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 26.9N 141.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 231800UTC 31.6N 143.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 241800UTC 36.6N 149.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[cycloneye]

P.K. it's now a SuperTyphoon?

[Derek Ortt]

I think it is just shy of 130KT 1 minute sustained, but is very close

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo doesn't use that term, looks like the JTWC would have it as that though if the NRL is as they have analysed it as. First visible images shortly will be interesting. As Derek says though converting to a one minute average is only around 126kts.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like Yagi may have peaked, based on viewing the surrounding synoptics and this loop, although the trough may enhance outflow as it pulls out, potentially allowing some restrengthening beyond 36 to 48 hours. Through the next 32 hours or so, however, the upper-level trough to the north-northwest may create some shear over Yagi. As evidenced in the last two frames of the loop, we may be seeing the beginning process of this.

[HurricaneBill]

RSMC Tokyo doesn't use that term, looks like the JTWC would have it as that though if the NRL is as they have analysed it as. First visible images shortly will be interesting. As Derek says though converting to a one minute average is only around 126kts.

Although you gotta admit, for a storm this strong, JMA and JTWC are rather close in agreement.

BTW, what was the last storm to reach 10-min 115KT according to the JMA?

[P.K.]

They are yes.

TY Angela (9520) in 1995 I think, 115kts 910hPa.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like Yagi may have peaked, based on viewing the surrounding synoptics and this loop, although the trough may enhance outflow as it pulls out, potentially allowing some restrengthening beyond 36 to 48 hours. Through the next 32 hours or so, however, the upper-level trough to the north-northwest may create some shear over Yagi. As evidenced in the last two frames of the loop, we may be seeing the beginning process of this.

Sigh, I think you are right. Why do these TC's always peak during the night?

BTW, about my post this morning:

Well, I know the SSD aren't going to move the floater again, but for the sake of calamity, I, and Category 5 (maybe), anybody know of another site where we can have closeup satellite images of Yagi (Besides NRL and SSD, and closeup, not zoomed out).

Thanks... I've got to go to school now.

They moved it and Yagi's looking ugly now, so I don't need it anymore. I thought they had a limit on how far north they could move the floaters so I thought they wouldn't move it anymore.

[WindRunner]

Current vis, and it definately looked far more impressive on IR overnight. Dvoraks peaked at 7.0 from SAB, and have dropped in the latest round. And interestingly enough, ADT's are again peaked at a CI of 6.3 - just goes to show how inaccurate the ADT can be, even on the weak side.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ioke looked stronger at times...Very large eye with deep convection around it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still very impressive eye wise. Ring of reds around the eye to...

I don't think Katrina had a black ring around her eye. So I'm not going to go against that this is a strong cat4 or weak cat5.

[WindRunner]

And appropriately back down to 105kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 23.7N 143.6E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 28.1N 141.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
48HF 240000UTC 33.0N 144.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 250000UTC 37.0N 151.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT

[AussieMark]

here is a list of 110 kt storms since 1986 (JMA 10 min)

2004
Chaba - 110 - 910

2000
Bilis - 110 - 920

1998
Zeb - 110 kts - 900

1997
Keith - 110 - 910

1995
Angela - 115 - 910

1994
Seth - 110 - 910
Melissa - 110 - 910

1992
Gay - 110 - 900

1991
Yuri - 120 - 895
Ruth - 115 - 895

1990
Flo - 120 - 890

1987
Betty - 110 - 890

1986
Peggy - 110 - 900
Lola - 120 - 910

[theworld]

wow, sweet....

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.0N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 30.0N 142.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 240600UTC 34.5N 147.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 250600UTC 38.3N 156.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[WindRunner]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 31.0N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 36.5N 151.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 251200UTC 42.6N 166.9E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[WindRunner]

Moving quickly eastward now, should become ET before reaching 170E.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0614 YAGI (0614)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 32.8N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
30KT 230NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 39.2N 157.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 251800UTC 44.1N 171.8E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW