9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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jhamps10
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jhamps10
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Day 1 prediction map - Friday, September 22, 2006
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION - Extremely severe, and potentially deadly weather is in store for much of the central United States. Violent tornadoes, extremely large hail and destructive straight line winds are all possible. The primary risk seems to - at least throughout Friday - be tornadoes.
Anyone living in the risk zone, and especially in the Extreme Risk area, should be prepared BEFORE the event occurs and be caught up on their tornado preparation skills and potentially lifesaving precautions. Tornadic supercells will likely develop in western Missouri or eastern Kansas in the mid-afternoon ahead of a cold front (with the help of a hot humid air mass ahead of it) and track east-northeastward into Illinois and possibly Indiana in the evening. Many other supercells will likely form from Minnesota to Texas throughout the afternoon. Ultimately, overnight, a squall line could form on the cold front.
Day 1 prediction map - Friday, September 22, 2006
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION - Extremely severe, and potentially deadly weather is in store for much of the central United States. Violent tornadoes, extremely large hail and destructive straight line winds are all possible. The primary risk seems to - at least throughout Friday - be tornadoes.
Anyone living in the risk zone, and especially in the Extreme Risk area, should be prepared BEFORE the event occurs and be caught up on their tornado preparation skills and potentially lifesaving precautions. Tornadic supercells will likely develop in western Missouri or eastern Kansas in the mid-afternoon ahead of a cold front (with the help of a hot humid air mass ahead of it) and track east-northeastward into Illinois and possibly Indiana in the evening. Many other supercells will likely form from Minnesota to Texas throughout the afternoon. Ultimately, overnight, a squall line could form on the cold front.
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jhamps10
CrazyC83: You're really living up to your name, you know that?
First of all, there is not a slight risk of severe storms from southern Ontario to the Mexican border. Second, your moderate risk is larger than the SPC's slight risk area for the same forecast period. Third, I don't think there'll even be a "high" risk area tomorrow, much less one that covers thousands of square miles, and by extension, there definitely won't be an "extreme" risk, wherever that came from (do you have something against the greater St. Louis area? :-P ).
If anything, I'm betting the SPC will downsize the moderate risk area tomorrow, or at least nudge it west. It's the beginning of fall and there's a truckload of uncertainty regarding how this system will come together, and even more uncertainty about how much instability it'll have to work with. Regardless of how things turn out tomorrow, I don't think your sky-is-falling prediction is going to verify either way. If it does, I'll eat the crow into extinction, provided I haven't been killed by one of the tornadoes in your little Super Outbreak II you've got goin' there.
First of all, there is not a slight risk of severe storms from southern Ontario to the Mexican border. Second, your moderate risk is larger than the SPC's slight risk area for the same forecast period. Third, I don't think there'll even be a "high" risk area tomorrow, much less one that covers thousands of square miles, and by extension, there definitely won't be an "extreme" risk, wherever that came from (do you have something against the greater St. Louis area? :-P ).
If anything, I'm betting the SPC will downsize the moderate risk area tomorrow, or at least nudge it west. It's the beginning of fall and there's a truckload of uncertainty regarding how this system will come together, and even more uncertainty about how much instability it'll have to work with. Regardless of how things turn out tomorrow, I don't think your sky-is-falling prediction is going to verify either way. If it does, I'll eat the crow into extinction, provided I haven't been killed by one of the tornadoes in your little Super Outbreak II you've got goin' there.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
It's basically a repeat of March 12. Not exactly a Super Outbreak II (if I did, I'd have HIGH or EXT across almost all of the eastern US).
My standards for EXT:
45%-hatched or higher-hatched Tornado (in this case that is what it is)
75%-hatched Wind (not issued by SPC)
Not issued on Hail
My standards for EXT:
45%-hatched or higher-hatched Tornado (in this case that is what it is)
75%-hatched Wind (not issued by SPC)
Not issued on Hail
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK AND CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 784...
VALID 220425Z - 220630Z
AIR MASS WAS DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR LATE THIS EVENING AS
MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD FROM LA. LONG-LIVED CYCLIC
SUPERCELL THAT HAD ITS ROOTS IN SOUTHERN OK...CONTINUES TO THRIVE
WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE... LINE
SEGMENTS TO THE WEST OF KRUE HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE DISCRETE WITH
THE SRN-MOST CELL TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ELY FLOW WITHIN THE RVR VLY.
GIVEN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO MOST
OF AR...CURRENT STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN-MOST
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS WOULD SHIFT
THE SUPERCELL THREAT INTO CNTRL AR BY 06Z.
USING A STORM MOTION OF 260/40...0-1KM SRH DERIVED FROM THE DE QUEEN
PROFILER WAS 550+ M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IF THE STORMS CAN
REMAIN ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SFC...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FARTHER EAST.
..RACY.. 09/22/2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK AND CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 784...
VALID 220425Z - 220630Z
AIR MASS WAS DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR LATE THIS EVENING AS
MID-UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS ADVECT NWD FROM LA. LONG-LIVED CYCLIC
SUPERCELL THAT HAD ITS ROOTS IN SOUTHERN OK...CONTINUES TO THRIVE
WITHIN THE ERN-MOST GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE... LINE
SEGMENTS TO THE WEST OF KRUE HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE DISCRETE WITH
THE SRN-MOST CELL TAKING ON SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF ELY FLOW WITHIN THE RVR VLY.
GIVEN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MORE QUALITY MOISTURE OVERNIGHT INTO MOST
OF AR...CURRENT STORMS MAY VERY WELL REMAIN WITHIN THE ERN-MOST
GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THIS WOULD SHIFT
THE SUPERCELL THREAT INTO CNTRL AR BY 06Z.
USING A STORM MOTION OF 260/40...0-1KM SRH DERIVED FROM THE DE QUEEN
PROFILER WAS 550+ M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS THAT IF THE STORMS CAN
REMAIN ROOTED CLOSE TO THE SFC...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO CNTRL AR THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FARTHER EAST.
..RACY.. 09/22/2006
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221406
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC001-005-009-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-049-051-
053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-085-089-093-095-
097-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-135-
137-141-145-147-149-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
MOC069-155-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
TNC033-045-047-075-095-097-131-157-167-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 786 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 221410Z - 230000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45S FSM/FORT SMITH AR/ - 30SSE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /42S FSM - 26SSE DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 785..AR MO MS TN
LAT...LON 35619437 36548919 34658919 33749437
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 786 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 910 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 785. WATCH NUMBER 785 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
910 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE BOUNDARY DELINEATING VERY
MOIST/TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SWRN TN INTO
W-CENTRAL AR/SERN OK THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY MAY LIFT NWD AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WILL
ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING
AND MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. PRESENCE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH O-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2
AND LOW LCLS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS
SUPERCELLS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221406
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC001-005-009-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-045-049-051-
053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-083-085-089-093-095-
097-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-135-
137-141-145-147-149-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE
CLARK CLAY CLEBURNE
CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HOT SPRING
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MARION MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEWTON
PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT POLK POPE
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SHARP ST. FRANCIS STONE
VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF
YELL
MOC069-155-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TATE
TUNICA
TNC033-045-047-075-095-097-131-157-167-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0786.060922T1410Z-060923T0000Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
HAYWOOD LAKE LAUDERDALE
OBION SHELBY TIPTON
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 786 TORNADO AR MO MS TN 221410Z - 230000Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45S FSM/FORT SMITH AR/ - 30SSE DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /42S FSM - 26SSE DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
REPLACES WW 785..AR MO MS TN
LAT...LON 35619437 36548919 34658919 33749437
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 786 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
NWS Memphis getting deep in the act:
FXUS64 KMEG 221537 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1037 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNTIL 00Z. AS OF 15Z...THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JUST
NORTH OF WALNUT RIDGE EASTWARD TO NEAR PARIS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND NOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH AS WELL.
WE SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SFC
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDS INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FEATURE
LACKING IS THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FEATURE.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EAST WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. JUST
ABOUT ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERES FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. SOME OF THE VALUES INCLUDE...MLCAPES AROUND 2500
J/KG...0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2...EHI VALUES OVER 3...AND SIG TOR
PARAMETERS OVER 5.
KEEP IN MIND...THAT THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
HEATING. THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE. THIS COULD ACTUALLY SERVE TO WORSEN THE SITUATION AS
IT WOULD ALLOW ANY SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE...ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL OF DANGEROUS LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY
IF/WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REDUCE POPS TO 50 PERCENT AS
MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD.
&&
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tn/discussion.html
FXUS64 KMEG 221537 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1037 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
UNTIL 00Z. AS OF 15Z...THE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM JUST
NORTH OF WALNUT RIDGE EASTWARD TO NEAR PARIS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD
MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE CWA BY AROUND NOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH AS WELL.
WE SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS SFC
HEATING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDS INSTABILITY. THE MAIN FEATURE
LACKING IS THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FEATURE.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EAST WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. JUST
ABOUT ALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERES FAVOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES. SOME OF THE VALUES INCLUDE...MLCAPES AROUND 2500
J/KG...0-1 KM SRH OF 300 M2/S2...EHI VALUES OVER 3...AND SIG TOR
PARAMETERS OVER 5.
KEEP IN MIND...THAT THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THROUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC
HEATING. THEREFORE...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE. THIS COULD ACTUALLY SERVE TO WORSEN THE SITUATION AS
IT WOULD ALLOW ANY SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN DISCRETE...ALLOWING THE
POTENTIAL OF DANGEROUS LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY
IF/WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.
WILL SEND AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REDUCE POPS TO 50 PERCENT AS
MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD.
&&
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tn/discussion.html
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC held the MDT but enlarged it even more...
SPC AC 221552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR INTO
PARTS OF MO/IL AND FAR WRN KY/TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM N
TX INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS SPECIFIC TIMING FOR GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT STILL UNCERTAIN. EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH MOST FOCUSED INTENSE SHEAR
REMAINING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS INTENSE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AS 65+F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NNEWD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN IL. OVERALL SETUP REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
...THROUGH 20Z...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE TROPICAL WARM FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED AT 15Z FROM WRN TN WSWWD INTO SERN-E-CENTRAL OK...AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR INDICATE LITTLE OR NO
CAPPING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. VWPS AND SHEAR ANALYSES
INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL FOCUS FOR DEEP ASCENT APPEARS DIFFUSE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY . HOWEVER WITH INTENSE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE
MID MO/SWRN MN...SWLY LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID SOUTH
/H85 WINDS AROUND 40-45 KT/. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY OVER AR INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM AIR ALONG EDGE
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER ERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL AR AND MOVE QUICKLY
ENEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. NEWD EXTENT OF THREAT FROM AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION/CLOUDS NOW
OVERSPREADING SERN MO AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
...LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...
MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA/ERN OK INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO CENTRAL MO. IN ADDITION...SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOW ECHOES EVOLVE AND RACE ENEWD INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR IN SEVERAL BANDS
ACROSS WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INHIBITION...WITH DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING/BACK-BUILDING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF EWD MOVING NE-SW
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1606Z (12:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 221552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND MUCH OF AR INTO
PARTS OF MO/IL AND FAR WRN KY/TN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM N
TX INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS SPECIFIC TIMING FOR GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT STILL UNCERTAIN. EXTREME SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL U.S...WITH MOST FOCUSED INTENSE SHEAR
REMAINING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS INTENSE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AS 65+F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT NNEWD INTO
CENTRAL/NRN IL. OVERALL SETUP REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
...THROUGH 20Z...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE TROPICAL WARM FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED AT 15Z FROM WRN TN WSWWD INTO SERN-E-CENTRAL OK...AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS WITHIN MOIST WARM SECTOR INDICATE LITTLE OR NO
CAPPING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. VWPS AND SHEAR ANALYSES
INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH OVERALL FOCUS FOR DEEP ASCENT APPEARS DIFFUSE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY . HOWEVER WITH INTENSE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE
MID MO/SWRN MN...SWLY LLJ WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID SOUTH
/H85 WINDS AROUND 40-45 KT/. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY OVER AR INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM AIR ALONG EDGE
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER ERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL AR AND MOVE QUICKLY
ENEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. NEWD EXTENT OF THREAT FROM AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL BE HINDERED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION/CLOUDS NOW
OVERSPREADING SERN MO AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY.
...LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...
MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NERN TX/NWRN LA/ERN OK INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER INTO CENTRAL MO. IN ADDITION...SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOW ECHOES EVOLVE AND RACE ENEWD INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
LATER TODAY/OVERNIGHT SEVERE THREAT MAY OCCUR IN SEVERAL BANDS
ACROSS WARM SECTOR GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INHIBITION...WITH DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING/BACK-BUILDING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF EWD MOVING NE-SW
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT.
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1606Z (12:06PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND
NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221811Z - 221945Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DUAL WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH NRN
MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO SEWD INTO WRN TN /NE OF DYR/
AND THEN INTO N-CNTRL AL. THE SRN BAROCLINIC ZONE...NOT AS WELL
DEFINED...EXISTED FROM CNTRL AR TO NEAR TUP. TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
ALONG ERN FRINGE OF LLJ FROM NRN MS/NWRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.
CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WITH 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND 0-1 KM
SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT
LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN.
..MEAD.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
34118972 35118919 35908901 36308887 36408836 36158761
35798707 35138682 34238704 33728763 33428806 33338848
33448918 33698955
Doubt the new watch (789) would be a PDS since it is in the SLGT area.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN SWD INTO NERN MS AND
NWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221811Z - 221945Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A DUAL WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH NRN
MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MO SEWD INTO WRN TN /NE OF DYR/
AND THEN INTO N-CNTRL AL. THE SRN BAROCLINIC ZONE...NOT AS WELL
DEFINED...EXISTED FROM CNTRL AR TO NEAR TUP. TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
ALONG ERN FRINGE OF LLJ FROM NRN MS/NWRN AL INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG.
CURRENT OKOLONA MS PROFILER SHOWS MODESTLY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WITH 40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND 0-1 KM
SRH OF AROUND 150 M2/S2. GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT
LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS WAA PATTERN.
..MEAD.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
34118972 35118919 35908901 36308887 36408836 36158761
35798707 35138682 34238704 33728763 33428806 33338848
33448918 33698955
Doubt the new watch (789) would be a PDS since it is in the SLGT area.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Newest watch farther north:
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING FROM
SW-NE ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN IL.
CAPPING IS EVIDENT AT 18Z OVER CENTRAL IL...BUT THIS WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221811
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 788 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-039-049-051-055-061-077-
081-083-087-107-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-145-147-
149-153-157-163-167-169-171-173-181-189-199-230200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0788.060922T1815Z-060923T0200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALEXANDER BOND
BROWN CALHOUN CASS
CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON
DE WITT EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON
LOGAN MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MASON
MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN MOULTRIE PERRY
PIATT PIKE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT SHELBY ST. CLAIR
UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
MOC007-017-019-023-027-031-035-051-055-071-073-093-099-113-123-
127-133-135-137-139-143-151-157-163-173-179-181-183-186-187-189-
201-207-219-221-223-510-230200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0788.060922T1815Z-060923T0200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOLLINGER BOONE
BUTLER CALLAWAY CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER COLE CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN GASCONADE IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEW MADRID
OSAGE PERRY PIKE
RALLS REYNOLDS RIPLEY
SCOTT ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE STODDARD
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
ATTN...WFO...LSX...PAH...ILX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 788 TORNADO IL MO 221815Z - 230200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WSW POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 35NNW SPI/SPRINGFIELD IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /28N ARG - 53SSW BDF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36569276 40299173 40298812 36568933
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 788 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Not a PDS watch surprisingly (should be in my opinion).
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INCREASING FROM
SW-NE ACROSS WW INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/SRN IL.
CAPPING IS EVIDENT AT 18Z OVER CENTRAL IL...BUT THIS WILL ERODE
THROUGH THE DAY. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221811
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 788 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-039-049-051-055-061-077-
081-083-087-107-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-145-147-
149-153-157-163-167-169-171-173-181-189-199-230200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0788.060922T1815Z-060923T0200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALEXANDER BOND
BROWN CALHOUN CASS
CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON
DE WITT EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GREENE JACKSON
JEFFERSON JERSEY JOHNSON
LOGAN MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MASON
MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN MOULTRIE PERRY
PIATT PIKE PULASKI
RANDOLPH SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT SHELBY ST. CLAIR
UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON
MOC007-017-019-023-027-031-035-051-055-071-073-093-099-113-123-
127-133-135-137-139-143-151-157-163-173-179-181-183-186-187-189-
201-207-219-221-223-510-230200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0788.060922T1815Z-060923T0200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOLLINGER BOONE
BUTLER CALLAWAY CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER COLE CRAWFORD
FRANKLIN GASCONADE IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MARION MISSISSIPPI MONITEAU
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEW MADRID
OSAGE PERRY PIKE
RALLS REYNOLDS RIPLEY
SCOTT ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE STODDARD
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
ATTN...WFO...LSX...PAH...ILX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 788 TORNADO IL MO 221815Z - 230200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WSW POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 35NNW SPI/SPRINGFIELD IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /28N ARG - 53SSW BDF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36569276 40299173 40298812 36568933
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 788 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Not a PDS watch surprisingly (should be in my opinion).
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Nate-Gillson
- Tropical Storm
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