SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

#101 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:23 pm

My yard is just starting to recover from the brutally hot and dry summer up here. I wonder if JB's superfront will put an end to my grass growing? We lost 2 Hollies to the Summer.

Extremeweatherguy · #102 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 4:37 pm

jschlitz wrote:I dunno if I'd say he was "DEAD ON." Didn't you say he said this front would be a "Superfront"? The front before this last one brought the coolest temps since spring. The next front will probably do the same again. And then the next front....and then the next one. It happens every fall.

The airport dropped into the 60's for two mornings when the normal low is now 67. Not exactly a "Superfront" IMO.

he never really said it would be a superfront for Houston. He said it would be one for the northern plains and parts of the NE..and for September, it was. Snow in the rockies and the pacific NW, freeze warnings in the Dakotas and Michigan (as well as other areas), and temps. in the 40s and 50s all the way to the southern plains is not exactly normal for mid September.

Compared to a wintertime arctic front though..this was nothing.

Extremeweatherguy · #103 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 8:42 pm

still windy here tonight in Houston. Gusts over 20mph still happening at 9pm.

Yankeegirl · #104 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:45 pm

Yeah, but not as cool as last night... last night was wonderful!!

Extremeweatherguy · #105 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 10:58 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:Yeah, but not as cool as last night... last night was wonderful!!

yeah, I know it was! I am just happy that we will get that again starting Sun. night and it will last through the beginning of next week.

Yankeegirl · #106 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:10 pm

Its really hot and humid out there, i just took out the trash and i was sweating... yuck! when is it really going to be fall?????

Extremeweatherguy · #107 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:43 pm

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO E TX...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THOUGH DEGREE OF
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A DIURNAL
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY SSWWD...WHILE STRONGER KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
FROM OK ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. THEREFORE --
DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS...MOST FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN OK
ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHEST PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXIST ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
FLOW ALOFT...AND STRONGER LINEAR FORCING THIS PERIOD...DAMAGING
WINDS WITH A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE MAY PREVAIL ON DAY 2.

Could be getting quite active tomorrow evening...

Extremeweatherguy · #108 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:57 pm

Beyond tomorrow's front, the GFS is showing an even stronger one for mid to late next week. It looks so strong in fact, that it could mean highs well below 80F and lows well below 60F. It has been showing a similar scenario for many days now too, and if this plays out, it could be quite a fall-like ending to next week.

#109 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:26 pm

I understand this one wont reach florida, but will the next?

JenBayles · #110 Postby **JenBayles** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:13 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Beyond tomorrow's front, the GFS is showing an even stronger one for mid to late next week. It looks so strong in fact, that it could mean highs well below 80F and lows well below 60F. It has been showing a similar scenario for many days now too, and if this plays out, it could be quite a fall-like ending to next week.

Oh I HOPE it actually verifies! Nice as it's been to not have to worry about my tender tropical plants the past few winters, I could use a dose of normal fall and winter weather for a change. Some kind of wind we've got going here today. The carts at the local grocery store were winging across the parking lot under their own steam and crashing into the cars.
:lol:

Extremeweatherguy · #111 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:46 pm

JB also is still all over this front. He is saying each model run is getting cooler and cooler, and frost may work it's way deep into the plains and all the way to VA behind the strong front coming around Sept. 30th.

If this is correct and we have frost deep into the plains...that could easily mean an airmass capable of 40s for lows here in Houston. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out!

BTW, he also said the EURO winter idea is out and it shows a large area of cool over the nation this winter. He said it shows no area south of 35N being above normal. This winter could get very crazy indeed..

Extremeweatherguy · #112 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:48 pm

ALSO: Here is the latest 18Z run of the GFS for day 7..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

and here is day 6 from the HPC:

#113 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 9:29 pm

Interesting that this is occuring so late in the month - esp. after a few fronts have come through.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

IF READINGS DO NOT DROP MUCH LOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BOTH
HOUSTON (81 DEGREES) AND GALVESTON (84 DEGREES) WILL TIE THE RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER.

Extremeweatherguy · #114 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 9:35 pm

jschlitz wrote:Interesting that this is occuring so late in the month - esp. after a few fronts have come through.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

IF READINGS DO NOT DROP MUCH LOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BOTH
HOUSTON (81 DEGREES) AND GALVESTON (84 DEGREES) WILL TIE THE RECORDS
FOR THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER.

This warm overnight will act as a primer for an active storm day tomorrow evening. I think we could see a nice strong squall line out of this soupy, windy weather.

Yankeegirl · #115 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:28 pm

yeah, i have to agree with you... it is sooooo darn humid out there, and when that nice cold front moves through here, its going to go crazy!!

#116 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:05 am

We may get some decent rain, but once again this front will be coming through at the worst possible of time day for any severe weather.

KatDaddy · #117 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:12 am

Yes indeed jschlitz! I dont think this event will be bust like all the others. I will be watching the radar tonight

#118 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:59 am

Hey Kat,

I'll be doing the same. Maybe the 4th time will be a charm ;-)

....

Extremeweatherguy · #119 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:32 pm

JenBayles · #120 Postby **JenBayles** » Sat Sep 23, 2006 2:42 pm

Dave is just finishing up the yard work, so... BRING IT ON!! :cheesy:

SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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