Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[cycloneye]

From which area of convection is what the models are showing development? I see some moderate scattered convection in the water behind 96L and nothing big until the mid-Africa area.

[superfly]

The one that's just off the coast and only the GFS is showing development.

[gatorcane]

one thing we can't help but notice is that the models are in fairly decent agreement that a big subtropical ridge will be building back into the North Atlantic:

For example, here is the GFS showing the ridge:
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=144hr

[LaBreeze]

Seems like the GOM will miss out on this one too. That's a good thing! Hard to believe that this season has been a great one for the GOM - something we really needed, that's for sure.

[OuterBanker]

A little bit of irony from the GFS that wasn't even raised a while ago. The 384 GFS had a rather nasty system just off the NC coast on Aug 15. On the 31st Ernesto was headed for Wilmington. It was around 150 miles west of GFS and approached from the south through Fla., the GFS had it as a long tracker. A pure coincidence no doubt.

LaBreeze. Just how much the Gulf getting off this year has on our economy is coming to light now. Gas approaching 2.00 a gallon because of no Gulf threats. Allowing time to rebuild giving the area a chance to catch it's breath, etc. Maybe, just maybe it will allow a national attitude of optimism as far as the Gulf region is concerned.

[sma10]

South Florida definitely needs to watch these developments as the models are somewhat consistent in bringing this tropical system into South Florida from the east

Isn't it a little too premature to start with the "eeks" already?

[gatorcane]

South Florida definitely needs to watch these developments as the models are somewhat consistent in bringing this tropical system into South Florida from the east

Isn't it a little too premature to start with the "eeks" already?

maybe a bit premature but still some of those model runs are quite scary - I assume they will change.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think the models performed excellently with both Gordon and Helene. While it is still VERY early, I think they shouldn't be discounted on this one.

[Meso]

Latest GFS has backed off on the whole near florida system thing it was showing in previous runs

[sma10]

South Florida definitely needs to watch these developments as the models are somewhat consistent in bringing this tropical system into South Florida from the east

Isn't it a little too premature to start with the "eeks" already?

maybe a bit premature but still some of those model runs are quite scary - I assume they will change.

These are 15day forecast positions from the GFS. I do not scare that easily.

[LaBreeze]

Yes, Outerbanker, it is a welcoming to see the gas prices dropping a bit - oil and gas activity is on the comeback here in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Meso you are right.Even abandons the scenario of a system forming and moving from the Tropical Atlantic towards the Bahamas.Mark,what a change from the 00z run to these 12z and 18z runs.

[fci]

South Florida definitely needs to watch these developments as the models are somewhat consistent in bringing this tropical system into South Florida from the east

The "eek" is a classic to me!!!

15 days out with the GFS that had Helene coming to the Bahamas and a sharp right turn to NC/VA just last week!
It is the posts like this one that add so much humor to S2K and allow us to just harrass people SO MUCH.
Thank you so much for allowing some fun during this quiet period!!!!!

15 days out an an "eek"----JUST GOTTA LOVE IT!!!!!
Plus I just know the others that will join in the merriment both in posting and teasing about those posts. Put me in the latter category.

[gatorcane]

In case any of you haven't notice I do like toadd some humor where appropriate. Certainly a forecast 15 days out is not concerning. The eek certainly wasn't being 100% serious

[SouthFloridawx]

In case any of you haven't notice I do like toadd some humor where appropriate. Certainly a forecast 15 days out is not concerning. The eek certainly wasn't being 100% serious

Yeah fci... gatorcane is cool. He's been on here for a while and is certainly not one to scream bloody murder 15 days out. but, I know what you meant FCI.

[wxmann_91]

In case any of you haven't notice I do like toadd some humor where appropriate. Certainly a forecast 15 days out is not concerning. The eek certainly wasn't being 100% serious

Yeah seriously I really thought you were serious.

[gilbert88]

I think some folks in FL like to be in the spotlight... they seem to want a major hurricane hit so bad it's almost as if they didn't know the implications (like the people in NJ wanting a storm to hit them).

[fci]

Gatorcane:
I was razzing you.
You and I have talked (PM'd) and I know you get a little excited and in some ways "w-cast".
Not anything near true "w-casting" but you enjoy the chase and do it in an unobnoxious way unlike some others on this board who truly relish in getting the hype up.
Nathan, I know Chris (and like him) from the couple of years on here and I was just having some fun.
If I TRULY thought he was a serious "w-caster", I would probably just ignore him for fear it would start a problem and PM's from Mods, suspensions, letters to my attorney, beatings...
Now, Gatorcane; those who don' t know you might take you seriously......
fci

[bob rulz]

Everyone remember last month when the GFS consistently forecasted a huge hurricane to make it across the Atlantic and hit the East Coast? And then as soon as the wave left the coast and fell apart, they backed off, even though they had consistently forecast it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well gfs does develope this wave behind 96L I guess that's it. Anyway... tracks it into the caribbean Then across or near Jamaica and under western central cuba and up into sw florida. Now keeping in mind that this is about as accurate as a monkey solving a rubix cube we have to see what the trend is. LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml