Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm Mukda (ARB 0602)

[WindRunner]

This was looking like trash a few days ago, but it appears to be spinning up. JTWC has issued a TCFA for a system moving WNW at 6kts, and no mention of it from IMD as of yet. And just to make things even more confusing, NRL lists it at 35kts/997mb. So basically, take your pick as to the status of this one - either way, it's spinning up and we could have our first named storm of the year (or second per JTWC).



Forecast for Arabian Sea from Pakistan Met Dept:

Code: Select all

WWPK20 OPKC 200830
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX VALID FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 0900UTC DATED 20-09-2006 BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.
PART -I:           ALERT MESSAGE  : FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN CAREFUL
                                                            FOR NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
PART -II            THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTERAL ARABIAN SEA
                              PERSISTS
                             
PART -III:            FORCASTS:
 
SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I.   WIND         NW/SW'LY 15-20 KTS GUSTING 25 KTS
II.   WEATHER      PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/ THUNDERSHOWERS IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SECTOR.
III.   VISIBILITY   MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV.   STATE OF SEA   MODERATE/ROUGH
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I.   WIND         NW/SW'LY 10-15 KTS
II.   WEATHER      FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING
III.   VISIBILITY   MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE
IV.   STATE OF SEA   SLIGHT
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I.   WIND         SW'LY 15-20 KTS GUSTING 25 KTS
II.   WEATHER      PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN SECTOR
III.   VISIBILITY   MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN.
IV.   STATE OF SEA   MODERATE/ROUGH
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I.   WIND         SW/SE'LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS IN EASTERN SECTOR
II.   WEATHER      PARTLY CLOUDYWITH HAZY MORNING
III.   VISIBILITY   MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE
IV.   STATE OF SEA   SLIGHT/MODERATE.


[RattleMan]

93A has disappeared from the main NRL, but under the "All" tab:

04A.NONAME
03B.NONAME
02B.MALA
01A.NONAME

[Coredesat]

We have Tropical Cyclone 04A:

WTIO31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202221Z SEP 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8N 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.0N 65.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.2N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 66.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 202221Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 202230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.//

NNNN

Nothing on IMD, but that's not really surprising.

[P.K.]

They have also upgraded this to ARB 0602 and the area over the Bay of Bengal to BOB 0608.

No. ARB/2/2006/ 01and BOB 08/2006/01 Dated 21st September, 2006

Subject: Depressions over Jharkhand and Arabian Sea

A land depression has formed which lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today the 21st September 2006 near lat. 23.00N and long 86.50E close to Jamshedpur. It is likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Bihar, north Orissa and north Chhattisgarh during the same period.

Another depression has formed over east central Arabian sea at 0830 hrs IST which lay centred near lat. 19.50 N and long. 66.00E about 450 kms southwest of Porbandar (Gujarat). it is likely to intensify further and move initially in a west-northwesterly direction.

[P.K.]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-09-2006 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS
ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)


SUBJECT:- DEPRESSION OVER BAY OF BENGAL

A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AT
0300 UTC WHICH LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT. 19.5 DEG. N AND LONG.
66.0 DEG. E, ABOUT 450 KMS SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDER (42830).
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST
CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL (.)

RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEGREE NORTH OVER
INDIAN REGION (.)


MSG OVER ??????????

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a deep depression.

No. ARB/2/2006/ 02and BOB 08/2006/02 Dated 21st September, 2006

Subject: Depressions over Jharkhand and Arabian Sea

Morning’s depression over Jharkhand remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today the 21st September 2006 near lat. 23.00N and long 86.50E close to Jamshedpur. It is likely to move in a northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Bihar, north Orissa and north Chhattisgarh during the same period.

The depression over east central Arabian sea also remained practically stationary and intensified into a deep depression. It lay centred at 1130 hours IST near lat. 19.50 N and long. 66.00E about 450 kms southwest of Porbandar (Gujarat). It is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northwesterly direction.

[WindRunner]

Pretty good looking depression:

[P.K.]

Mukda is the next name if this becomes a cyclonic storm. RSMC New Delhi are giving this a Dvorak estimate of 2.0 at the moment. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatcyclone.htm

[WindRunner]

Mukda is the next name if this becomes a cyclonic storm. RSMC New Delhi are giving this a Dvorak estimate of 2.0 at the moment. http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatcyclone.htm

Now a T2.5 as of 21Z, and the update at 1730 IST was the same as the 1130 IST posted above. Probably we will have Mukda tomorrow morning, though that may be late tonight as they appear to be putting the RSMC bulletins in local time, so being UTC+5:30, that would mean 02Z = 7:30am there. That means we might have the upgrade this evening (for those of us on the East Coast).

EDIT: OK, an hour later and I figured it out. Bulletins are at 06Z, 12Z, etc, just they list it in IST, which is +530, like I said above - duh!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

21/2100 UTC 20.1N 65.7E T3.0/3.0 04A -- Arabian Sea


Looks pretty clean cut to me.

[RattleMan]

"The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly northwards and intensified into a cyclonic storm (Mukda) at 0530 hrs IST of 22nd September 2006 and lay centred near lat. 20.00 N and long. 66.00E about 400 kms southwest of Porbandar (Gujarat). Possibility of the system to recurve towards Gujarat coast is fair. It is likely to intensify further and move initially in a northerly direction."

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Eye has developed. 85h data also show it...This thing is likely around 60 knots.

[P.K.]

Seems to be a fair delay on the ICAOs but I'll post it anyway.

FKIN20 VIDP 220625

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060922/0000Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: MUKDA
NR: 01
PSN: N0200 E06600
MOV: N 02KT
C: 996 HPA
MAX.WIND: 40 KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 221200 N 2030 E 06600
FCST MAX.WIND +12HR: 45 KT
FCST PSN +18 HRS: 221800 N 2030 E 06600
MAX WIND + 18 HRS:50KT
FCST PSN + 24 HRS: 230000 N 2100 E 06630
MAX WIND + 24 HRS: 55 KT

NEXT MESSAGE: 20060922/0600Z

OVER
=====

[P.K.]

FKIN20 VIDP 221105

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20060922/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : MUKDA
NR : 02
PSN : N 0200 E06600
MOV : N 02 KT
C : 994 HPA
MAX.WIND 45 KT

FCST PSN + 12 HR: 221800 N 2030 E 06600
MAX.WIND + 12HR:50 KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 230000 N 2030 E 06630
MAX.WIND + 18HR:55 KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 230600 N 2100 E 06700
MAX.WIND + 24HR:60 KT
NEXT MSG: 20060922/1200Z

[P.K.]

No. ARB/2/2006/09 and BOB 08/2006/09 Dated 22nd September, 2006

Subject: Cyclonic Alert for Gujarat Coast (yellow message)

The Cyclonic Storm (Mukda) over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly northeastwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. It lay centred at 1730 hrs IST near lat. 20.50 N and long. 66.50E about 350 kms southwest of Porbandar(Gujarat). It is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction towards Gujarat coast.

Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with strong surface winds reaching 80-100 km/hour may commence along the coastal areas of Gujarat within next 24hours. The sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough along Gujarat coast.

The depression over Jharkhand remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today the 22nd September 2006 about 50 kms east of Ranchi (Jharkhand). It is likely to move slowly in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over north Orissa, north Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and northeastern states during the same period.

[HURAKAN]

22/1430 UTC 20.5N 66.6E T4.5/4.5 MUKDA -- Arabian Sea

[P.K.]

FKIN20 VIDP 222125

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20060922/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : MUKDA
NR : 04
PSN : N 2030 E06630
MOV : NE 02 KT
C : 988 HPA
MAX.WIND 55 KT

FCST PSN + 12 HR: 230600 N 2030 E 06630
MAX.WIND + 12HR:60 KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 231200 N 2030 E 06630
MAX.WIND + 18HR:65 KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 231800 N 2100 E 06700
MAX.WIND + 24HR:65 KT
NEXT MSG: 20060923/0000

[Coredesat]

This thread needs renaming since Mukda's been a severe cyclonic storm for a while now.

[WindRunner]

Sorry about that, this is the first I've been on since it was upgraded.

FKIN20 VIDP 230310
TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20060923/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : MUKDA
NR : 06
PSN : N2100 E06700
MOV : NE 02 KT
C : 988 HPA
MAX.WIND 55 KT

FCST PSN + 12 HR: 231800 N 2130 E 06730
MAX.WIND + 12HR:65 KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240000 N 2200 E 06800
MAX.WIND + 18HR:65 KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 240600 N 2200 E 06800
MAX.WIND + 24HR:65 KT
NEXT MSG: 20060923/1200Z

[WindRunner]

No. ARB/2/2006/ 18 and BOB 08/2006/18 Dated 23rd September 2006

Subject: (1) Cyclone Warning for Gujarat coast (Orange Message)
(2) Depression over Jharkhand

(1) The Severe Cyclonic Storm (Mukda) over northeast & adjoining east central Arabian sea remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today the 23rd September 2006 near lat. 21.00 N and long. 67.00 E about 280 kms southwest of Porbandar (Gujarat). It is likely to move slowly in a northeasterly direction and cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Nalia by tomorrow evening. Numerical models and other inputs suggest signs of weakening of the system.

Under its influence widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy rainfall (25 cms or more) accompanied with gale force winds reaching 80-100 Km/hour are likely along and off Gujarat coast during next 24 hours. Storm surge of 2-3 metres above astronomical tide is likely close to the landfall point. The sea condition is likely to be high to very high along and off Gujarat coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

Damage Expected- Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.

Action Suggested- Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

(2) The depression over Jharkhand remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of 23rd September 2006 close to Dhanbad (Jharkhand). It is likely to move slowly in a northerly direction and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over north Orissa, north Chhattisgarh and east Uttar Pradesh during the same period.

And no longer expected to become a very severe cyclonic storm:

FKIN20 VIDP 231455
TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20060923/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : MUKDA
NR : 07
PSN : N2100 E06700
MOV : NE 02 KT
C : 988 HPA
MAX.WIND 55 KT

FCST PSN + 12 HR: 240000 N 2130 E 06730
MAX.WIND + 12HR:55 KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 240600 N 2200 E 06800
MAX.WIND + 18HR:55 KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 241200 N 2200 E 06800
MAX.WIND + 24HR:55 KT
NEXT MSG: 20060923/1800Z