Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[drezee]

There is a potential LLC at 13N and 45W. Look at the visible pic below...

Also Check:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

maybe something but it would have fish written all over it.

[LaBreeze]

[zaqary]

No there isnt. Just some clouds.

[Coredesat]

...that's because the visible graphic changes to IR at night, and you can't make out LLCs very well on IR.

[gatorcane]

...that's because the visible graphic changes to IR at night, and you can't make out LLCs very well on IR.

Yeah zagary still has some learning to do it looks like but he did pick the right place

[zaqary]

No, its nothing. I can see just fine.

[Normandy]

maybe something but it would have fish written all over it.

THere is no way that little swirl, if it becomes something, ends up a fish. Its heading straight for the Leeward islands.

[drezee]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 19N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 48W-56W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 12N FROM
50W-54W.

[drezee]

[rockyman]

Shear looks pretty low:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Center is partially covered by convection

Base of trough that is pulling Helene away is more than 10 degrees north of this area...so area should be steered into the Caribbean:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Thunder44]

Shear looks pretty low:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Center is partially covered by convection

Yes, upper-level winds are favorable for development into the Eastern Carribean for now.

[weatherwindow]

FWIW...the 100am MWD, from the TAFB, now mentions that wave(with or without its attendant low) will be entering the eastern caribbean on sunday and reach the central caribbean by next tuesday...it will be interesting to see how the upper level environment evolves, particularly in the western caribbean, in the wednesday thru friday time frame....TAFB has another large trough from north fla to the BOC by tues moving offshore by friday with some subsequent ridging....october getting closer by the minute......rich

[Thunder44]

Shear looks pretty low:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Center is partially covered by convection

Yes, upper-level winds are favorable for development into the Eastern Carribean for now.

Some of the upper-level outflow from Helene may increase northerly shear over it today.

[SouthFloridawx]

Shear looks pretty low:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Center is partially covered by convection

Yes, upper-level winds are favorable for development into the Eastern Carribean for now.

Some of the upper-level outflow from Helene may increase northerly shear over it today.

It looks like an upper level feature/trough to it's northeast is going to induce some shear on the system rather than Helene.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

Helene is well north of this area now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

Steering flow today looks like it's in an area to move it about 10-15 mph for the next day or so, right under the high centered off the SE US.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Going out 72 Hours from now in the Eastern Caribbean.. looks like favorable upper level winds are in the forecast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

But, will we see development?

Overall I'm not very impressed with this area but, it is a low attached to the wave so it has to be watched.

[Thunder44]

Shear looks pretty low:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Center is partially covered by convection

Yes, upper-level winds are favorable for development into the Eastern Carribean for now.

Some of the upper-level outflow from Helene may increase northerly shear over it today.

It looks like an upper level feature/trough to it's northeast is going to induce some shear on the system rather than Helene.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

Helene is well north of this area now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

Steering flow today looks like it's in an area to move it about 10-15 mph for the next day or so, right under the high centered off the SE US.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Going out 72 Hours from now in the Eastern Caribbean.. looks like favorable upper level winds are in the forecast.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

But, will we see development?

Overall I'm not very impressed with this area but, it is a low attached to the wave so it has to be watched.

Look at visible imagery from GHCC. You see high clouds from Helene moving towards this disturbance.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

I'm also watching for that large trough north of the Carribean on water vapor imagery, to not continue digging southward.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[weatherwindow]

good morning nathan.....agreed, it does look a bit skimpy and none of the 00 or 06Z models suggest anything.....but the low is worth watching if it persist along the wave into the caribbean.....rich

[SouthFloridawx]

good morning nathan.....agreed, it does look a bit skimpy and none of the 00 or 06Z models suggest anything.....but the low is worth watching if it persist along the wave into the caribbean.....rich

Yep you have to watch any low that is attached to a wave for possible development in the future. The amount of Waves going into the Caribbean have been low since Florence formed. I only remember seeing between 6-8 since Florence if that.

Thunder I agree there are some upper level clouds from Helene making it that far south but, looking at some charts it appears that the Upper Level Trough to the Northeast is the culprit for making this happen.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear Tendency

You can clearly see on the 200mb vorticity that there is an upper level disturbance there causing the upper clouds from helene to be stretched so far south.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html
200mb Vorticity

Here is a shot of the Windshear and the direction it is coming from. If you look at the arrows you can see this here also.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Windshear

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 17N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 51W-53W. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS MODEL...THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY.


2:05 PM Discussion.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well looking at the Shear forecast at 72 hours. (That's as far as I would go) we see some shear in the Caribbean but, not an massive amount capably of destroying tropical development. So, we'll see if the condiitions are favorable:

Low Shear
Low Level Convergence
Upper Level Divergence
Persistent thunderstorm activity
Low pressure still associated with it

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr