Have a look at some of the CAPE values: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/s6/sbcp.gif
Some 4000+ out there...that is explosively unstable.
9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Nate-Gillson wrote:Looks like Saint Louis may be in trouble soon.
Indeed - that´s excactly the path...
NOAA Tulsa switched to "significant" concerning lightning,severe and TOR
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANNISTON ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...WW 788...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AS THEY
APPROACH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNW-SSE OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A VERY
DEEP MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S...ALONG WITH LOW
LCLS...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANNISTON ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...WW 788...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AS THEY
APPROACH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNW-SSE OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A VERY
DEEP MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S...ALONG WITH LOW
LCLS...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221906
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 789 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ALC009-015-027-033-037-043-055-057-059-073-075-077-079-083-089-
093-095-103-115-117-121-123-127-133-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0789.060922T1910Z-060923T0000Z/
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CLAY
COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN
ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WALKER WINSTON
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161-
230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0789.060922T1910Z-060923T0000Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...HUN...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 789 TORNADO AL MS 221910Z - 230000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30NNW UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 5NE ANB/ANNISTON AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /21SE MEM - 45NW LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 35588973 34438579 32848579 33978973
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 789 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
New watch SE of the main activity covering the initial activity in MS and AL. Not a PDS, which is what was expected.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANNISTON ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...WW 788...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AS THEY
APPROACH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNW-SSE OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A VERY
DEEP MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S...ALONG WITH LOW
LCLS...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANNISTON ALABAMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 786...WW 787...WW 788...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AS THEY
APPROACH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NNW-SSE OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A VERY
DEEP MOIST LAYER EVIDENT ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN
ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST FEW KM/S...ALONG WITH LOW
LCLS...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...EVANS
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 221906
WOU9
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
TORNADO WATCH 789 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ALC009-015-027-033-037-043-055-057-059-073-075-077-079-083-089-
093-095-103-115-117-121-123-127-133-230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0789.060922T1910Z-060923T0000Z/
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CLAY
COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN
ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN
JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON
MARION MARSHALL MORGAN
SHELBY ST. CLAIR TALLADEGA
TALLAPOOSA WALKER WINSTON
MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161-
230000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0789.060922T1910Z-060923T0000Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN
CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE MONROE PONTOTOC
PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...HUN...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 789 TORNADO AL MS 221910Z - 230000Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30NNW UOX/OXFORD MS/ - 5NE ANB/ANNISTON AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /21SE MEM - 45NW LGC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 35588973 34438579 32848579 33978973
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 789 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
New watch SE of the main activity covering the initial activity in MS and AL. Not a PDS, which is what was expected.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
MOC065-221945-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0099.000000T0000Z-060922T1945Z/
DENT MO-
209 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR DENT
COUNTY...
AT 206 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR TURTLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STONE HILL BY 215 PM CDT
HOWES MILL BY 220 PM CDT
BOSS BY 225 PM CDT
AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED 3 MILES
EAST OF HOWES AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL. THIS
CELL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MILES PER HOUR AND WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY...INCLUDING COMMUNITIES IN AND
AROUND SLIGO.
A THIRD POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELL IS IN SOUTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY.
THIS CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL. SOUTHERN
DENT COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WALNUT SIZE HAIL.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3743 9177 3742 9158 3742 9123 3749 9123
3749 9133 3761 9133 3760 9117 3769 9117
3770 9135
$$
GAGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
209 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
MOC065-221945-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0099.000000T0000Z-060922T1945Z/
DENT MO-
209 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR DENT
COUNTY...
AT 206 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR TURTLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STONE HILL BY 215 PM CDT
HOWES MILL BY 220 PM CDT
BOSS BY 225 PM CDT
AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED 3 MILES
EAST OF HOWES AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL. THIS
CELL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MILES PER HOUR AND WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN DENT COUNTY...INCLUDING COMMUNITIES IN AND
AROUND SLIGO.
A THIRD POTENTIALLY TORNADIC CELL IS IN SOUTHWESTERN DENT COUNTY.
THIS CELL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT SIZE HAIL. SOUTHERN
DENT COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WALNUT SIZE HAIL.
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
LAT...LON 3743 9177 3742 9158 3742 9123 3749 9123
3749 9133 3761 9133 3760 9117 3769 9117
3770 9135
$$
GAGAN
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND...FAR ERN IA AND SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221920Z - 222145Z
SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SEWD
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER HAS AIDED
IN A SLOW WARMUP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/NRN IL AND SERN IA. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50
J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING
INDICATED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND
ERN IA IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ARE A RESULT OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS JET MAX MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...INCREASING INSOLATION AND DIMINISHING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT
AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES NEAR
THE MS RIVER /PER DVN RADAR IMAGERY/. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
/20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF
MLCINH/ WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO SRN WI/NWRN IND BY EARLY
EVENING /AFTER 23Z/ IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE
AREAS OCCURS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
40218838 40309026 40689062 41349093 42099072 43309018
43398908 43348831 43278744 41968681 40498710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND...FAR ERN IA AND SRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221920Z - 222145Z
SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SEWD
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER HAS AIDED
IN A SLOW WARMUP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/NRN IL AND SERN IA. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50
J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING
INDICATED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND
ERN IA IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ARE A RESULT OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS JET MAX MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...INCREASING INSOLATION AND DIMINISHING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT
AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES NEAR
THE MS RIVER /PER DVN RADAR IMAGERY/. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
/20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF
MLCINH/ WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO SRN WI/NWRN IND BY EARLY
EVENING /AFTER 23Z/ IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE
AREAS OCCURS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
40218838 40309026 40689062 41349093 42099072 43309018
43398908 43348831 43278744 41968681 40498710
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
WWUS53 KLSX 221930
SVSLSX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
MOC055-071-221-222015-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-060922T2015Z/
WASHINGTON MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
AT 227 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ST.
JAMES ALONG INTERSTATE 44. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSATI
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH AND WILL BE NEAR CUBA IN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES!
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...
LEASBURG...BOURBON...ST. CLOUD...SULLIVAN...ANTHONIES MILL AND
RICHWOODS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LAT...LON 3825 9138 3821 9154 3800 9153 3806 9110
3812 9069 3837 9075
$$
CVKING
SVSLSX
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
MOC055-071-221-222015-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-060922T2015Z/
WASHINGTON MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-
229 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...
AT 227 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ST.
JAMES ALONG INTERSTATE 44. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ROSATI
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH AND WILL BE NEAR CUBA IN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES!
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...
LEASBURG...BOURBON...ST. CLOUD...SULLIVAN...ANTHONIES MILL AND
RICHWOODS.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LAT...LON 3825 9138 3821 9154 3800 9153 3806 9110
3812 9069 3837 9075
$$
CVKING
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.kmov.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/makeASX.php?title=beloint_kmov&live=1&adurl=adcontent/Kmov/stclairPreRoll063006.wmv
Live coverage from KMOV in St. Louis
they only show a commercial for st clairor somthing
That is the first 30 seconds. After that they show live coverage. They have to pay for our courtesy, after all!
Tornado definitely showing up on radar, S of Bourbon and E of Leasburg.
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CrazyC83 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.kmov.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/makeASX.php?title=beloint_kmov&live=1&adurl=adcontent/Kmov/stclairPreRoll063006.wmv
Live coverage from KMOV in St. Louis
they only show a commercial for st clairor somthing
That is the first 30 seconds. After that they show live coverage. They have to pay for our courtesy, after all!
...
Maybe later. I only can see that commercial guy...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:http://www.kmov.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/makeASX.php?title=beloint_kmov&live=1&adurl=adcontent/Kmov/stclairPreRoll063006.wmv
Live coverage from KMOV in St. Louis
they only show a commercial for st clairor somthing
That is the first 30 seconds. After that they show live coverage. They have to pay for our courtesy, after all!
...
Maybe later. I only can see that commercial guy...
Weird, it worked for me...
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
New watch 791 (PDS?) coming out east of 788.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221955Z - 222200Z
TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT
STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF
DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO
NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND
FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN
WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY
RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2
HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED
SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND
NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747
35968796 36038851
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221955Z - 222200Z
TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT
STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF
DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO
NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND
FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN
WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY
RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2
HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED
SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND
NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747
35968796 36038851
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CrazyC83 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:That is the first 30 seconds. After that they show live coverage. They have to pay for our courtesy, after all!
...
Maybe later. I only can see that commercial guy...
Weird, it worked for me...
Can you give some piece of advice how the get coverage following the comm. ? Could it be that it´s not running while firefox is still open ?
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