Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[WeatherEmperor]

Well the 12Z GFS run has finished and it now takes this wave behind 96L develops it and tracks it into the eastern Caribbean and then turns it north inbetween Hispanola and Puerto Rico and then recurves out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif

<RICKY>

[SouthFloridawx]

Well the 12Z GFS run has finished and it now takes this wave behind 96L develops it and tracks it into the eastern Caribbean and then turns it north inbetween Hispanola and Puerto Rico and then recurves out to sea.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif

<RICKY>

Yep I noticed that GFS is consistenly developing this feature. Doesn't make it strong but, I think the UKMET is picking up on it too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 2/111.html

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm debating with myself on which area gfs is developing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://tinyurl.com/jeohd

It may be a combination of the two areas. But, I'm thinking it's the one in front.

[Dynamic]

I'm debating with myself on which area gfs is developing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://tinyurl.com/jeohd

It may be a combination of the two areas. But, I'm thinking it's the one in front.

http://img454.imageshack.us/img454/2686/rbldj1.jpg

I agree with him, and looking several times the GFS, it is the first one (currently emerging from Africa) the one that the model develop and hit Puerto Rico on October 4. This was happening since September 17.

[storms in NC]

I don't know if any one knows this but the CV season is done as far as coming across the Atlantic IMO

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't know if any one knows this but the CV season is done as far as coming across the Atlantic IMO

I do enjoy reading your thoughts you post from time to time but, rarely do I see actual facts or proof regarding your info. Why do you think CV is done? Just wondering - Not trying to be mean.

[Stormcenter]

I don't know if any one knows this but the CV season is done as far as coming across the Atlantic IMO

I do enjoy reading your thoughts you post from time to time but, rarely do I see actual facts or proof regarding your info. Why do you think CV is done? Just wondering - Not trying to be mean.

In my opinion I think because it's September 22 and by the time anything off of Africa makes it to this side of the world it will be October 5th or 6th.
I just don't think we will see another Wilma.

[chadtm80]

So no reasoning.. Gotcha

[Stormcenter]

Climatology is my reasoning. How many Cat. 1 or higher Cape Verde originating storms do you on the "average" have each season in early October 2006 that actually make landfall in the U.S.? If you look at the numbers not really many. Hey just my two cents.

[MiamiensisWx]

In my opinion I think because it's September 22 and by the time anything off of Africa makes it to this side of the world it will be October 5th or 6th.
I just don't think we will see another Wilma.

Huh? Wilma formed in the Caribbean and was not a Cape Verde system (although a weak tropical wave did cross the Atlantic into the central Caribbean and interacted with the monsoonal trough synoptics that spawned Wilma in part). Also, some late September or very early October recurving Cape Verde systems have developed in past years. A good example is Isidore (1996) and Karl and Lisa (both from 2004). Ivan and Jeanne of 1998 are also good examples of later-forming Cape Verde systems that recurved in the eastern or east-central to central Atlantic.

Although I don't see any more development east of 45W this year, Caribbean/south-central Gulf development may be quite possible, especially for one - or maybe two - system(s), either via frontal development or low convective development in the west-central Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico, with the chief target areas potentially being Alabama and the Chandeleur Islands of Louisiana (westernmost) eastward, as well as west-central, central, and southern Florida (including the Florida Keys).

Note that I do NOT expect much more than two (maybe three) more systems for the season, and I expect one (maybe two) of them to be from the Caribbean or southern, south-central, or southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche. I just don't believe it can be written off. Also, stating "I just don't think we will see another Wilma" isn't saying much. Do you mean in terms of peak intensity (882 millibars) or in terms of track? Also, just because a storm doesn't reach the peak intensity of Katrina, Rita, or Wilma (or many other storms) doesn't mean they won't be as "bad" (define that, anyway) or destructive/dangerous as those or any other storms. Keep in mind that that two of the three aforementioned storms weakened before Gulf landfalls, while Wilma hit the Yucatan and southwest Florida with lower winds and higher pressure than it's record-breaking peak intensity.

I think your last statement, in short, is rather misleading.

[MiamiensisWx]

Climatology is my reasoning. How many Cat. 1 or higher Cape Verde originating storms do you on the "average" have each season in early October 2006 that actually make landfall in the U.S.? If you look at the numbers not really many. Hey just my two cents.

On that I agree in terms of Cape Verde systems. Late September/early October Cape Verde systems typically recurve further east (e.g., Ivan and Jeanne of 1998 and Karl and Lisa of 2004, as well as other examples) and don't affect the United States.

[MiamiensisWx]

To further add to my point, this is NOT a Cape Verde system...



This storm is of Cape Verde origin, as it developed from a tropical wave of African origin that maintained a distinct axis and identity until it developed into a depression, but was not a "true" Cape Verde storm (becoming a tropical storm or higher at or east of 40W)...



THIS, on the other hand, is a true Cape Verde system (note how Georges reached tropical storm status at or east of 40W, and it reached tropical storm strength east of 40W in this case)...



I really do not quite get the statement that another Wilma is not expected. In addition, although Cape Verde development or development of Cape Verde origin east of 55W typically ends in early to middle October, waves of African origin continue to transverse the Atlantic, often until arrival in the Caribbean, where development may begin.

[SouthFloridawx]

Good points Daniel.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

A very interesting 18z loop to say the least.A caribbean rider here if this verifies.

[wxman57]

Interesting 18Z GFS. Look where it puts that wave at 384 hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384m.gif

[wxman57]

Looks like we posted the same thing at the same time, cycloneye. Of course, I don't think that the 384hr GFS has ever been wrong, has it?

But I have made a bet with my coworkers (who think that th season is over for the Gulf) that there will be at least 1 hurricane in the Gulf in the next 3 weeks, and quite possibly a major hurricane. We defined the Gulf as anywhere north of a line from Key West to the NE tip of the Yucatan. May not be far north of that line (unless the 18Z GFS verifies).

[cycloneye]

Of course, I don't think that the 384hr GFS has ever been wrong, has it?

Is like the odds for the Power Ball drawings 1/1,000,000,000.

However,we can look at the 16 day runs for trends.

[Kerry04]

Looks like we posted the same thing at the same time, cycloneye. Of course, I don't think that the 384hr GFS has ever been wrong, has it?

But I have made a bet with my coworkers (who think that th season is over for the Gulf) that there will be at least 1 hurricane in the Gulf in the next 3 weeks, and quite possibly a major hurricane. We defined the Gulf as anywhere north of a line from Key West to the NE tip of the Yucatan. May not be far north of that line (unless the 18Z GFS verifies).

I have a question wxman57, what are the conditions like in the Gulf that might help you win your bet in 3 are more weeks?

[WeatherEmperor]

Of course, I don't think that the 384hr GFS has ever been wrong, has it?

Is like the odds for the Power Ball drawings 1/1,000,000,000.

However,we can look at the 16 day runs for trends.

Good point Luis. To make this more concrete, the GFS has developed this tropical wave for I think at least 4 consecutive runs(although it could be more). Eventhough the 4 aforementioned runs took the system in different directions, overall all 4 of them had taken this system into atleast the eastern caribbean. I will wait at midnight for the 00Z run. If the 00Z GFS continues to show development of this wave, then I am gonna raise my alert level just a bit higher. Eventhough it is extremely against the odds for the 16 day GFS to ever verify, the fact that it consistently shows DEVELOPMENT early in the run cycle in run after run after run after run should sort of give us an indication that the GFS is not fooling around when it says this wave is going to develop.

<RICKY>

[AussieMark]

I don't know if any one knows this but the CV season is done as far as coming across the Atlantic IMO

I do enjoy reading your thoughts you post from time to time but, rarely do I see actual facts or proof regarding your info. Why do you think CV is done? Just wondering - Not trying to be mean.

In my opinion I think because it's September 22 and by the time anything off of Africa makes it to this side of the world it will be October 5th or 6th.
I just don't think we will see another Wilma.

Its happened in the past so I would not be so sure if I were u