Well, currently Helene is gradually gathering extratropical characteristics and may complete extratropical transition within the next 36 to 48 hours - or even slightly sooner - as it merges with the middle to upper-level trough currently associated with an ULL (which is located to the north-northwest of Helene) located in the west-central to central North Atlantic, as apparent on
visible and
water vapor imagery. As Helene merges with ULT in the north-central North Atlantic associated with the aforementioned ULL near 55N and 54.9W, the southern portion of the ULT may cut off, weaken, and develop into a newer weak ULL in the vicinity of 24.5N and 56.5W while the northern portion of the ULT pulls out while Helene merges with it within the next 56 hours while becoming more entrenched with the westerlies as an extratropical low.
As evidenced, you can already see the beginning stages of a weak ULL forming as the southern portion of the ULT cuts off and retrogrades slightly westward as the more northerly portion of the ULT associated with the aforementioned other ULL over the far northern North Atlantic pulls out with Helene. This, along with allowing the southern portion of the ULT to cut off, weaken, retrograde slightly westward, and form into a weak ULL (as it is currently doing and how the beginning stages of this whole process is evident on current visible loops as the northern portion of the ULT pulls out), may help to significantly decrease the mid-level shear over and just ahead of 96L by 36 to 48 hours and beyond. Based on loops, you can see the beginning stages of this due to all the aforementioned details in earnest.
As the northern portion of the ULT pulls out within the next 36 to 48 hours and as a weak and shallower ULL forms from the weakening southern portion of the trough near 24.5N and 56.5W and retrogrades slightly westward, mid-level ridging off the Mid-Atlantic region may build in eastward by 36 to 48 hours and lasting until roughly 64 hours in advance of a developing mid-level trough in the eastern Great Plains, additionally helping to reduce shear in the region ahead of 96L from roughly 54W to 74.8W. You can see the beginning process of this on this
surface map; additionally helping in this process, a surface front just behind the ULT over the north-central North Atlantic pulling out with Helene may weaken by 36 to 48 hours, allowing this ridging to build eastward.
As for steering of 96L, as the system and potential weak low associated with 96L are still rather shallow, and as the ULT pulls out, a more west-northwest track by 36 to 52 hours until the vicinity of 64W may be possible, as the ridging synoptics may be enough to allow a slightly more westward movement than indicated by current guidance. Based on the developing and amplifying low in the upper Great Plains, however, I don't think 96L may make it past 70W to 71W at the furthest west potential it may take.
Bottom line: conditions may become more favorable at the middle levels ahead of 96L within the next 36 to 48 hours, allowing gradual development and potentially a bit steadier intensification by 55W to 60W region if the weak low may consolidate more. I also believe 96L may recurve, but a bit further west than indicated by guidance, based on viewing the lower to upper-air synoptics through 74 hours.
