9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222343Z - 230145Z

ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DEVELOPING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z.
GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF SVR POTENTIAL...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM
CENTRAL INTO SERN WI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND WAS DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN
IL...WHILE LEAVING SRN WI IN SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER FURTHER
NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER VORT LOBE WAS ROTATING NWD ACROSS WRN WI. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW TOP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR /200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT WITH THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE
SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006


ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

45028866 45238975 44879049 44339016 43948974 43908898
43968845 44598814

[Gorky]

Tornado on the ground in Ravenden as per live phone call on http://www.kait8.com/

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is this a big event like the ones in April...

[CrazyC83]

Is this a big event like the ones in April...

Event? Yes. The remarkable thing is there have been no reported fatalities.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now to 14 reports...

2100 BAY CITY POPE IL 3725 8850 FOLLOW UP REPORT - DAMAGED AT MCCURTY FARM SOUTH OF BAY CITY ON BAY CITY HILL...ALSO A RADIO TOWER DOWN. (PAH)
2125 ROCKWOOD RANDOLPH IL 3784 8970 UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES...TREES DOWN (LSX)
2142 GORHAM JACKSON IL 3772 8948 HOME DAMAGED AT KORANDO LANE (PAH)
2152 5 N MURPHYSBORO JACKSON IL 3784 8934 TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT RT 127 AND TRUEX BLACKTOP MOVING NE TOWARD ELKVILLE...A STATE TROOPER WAS FOLLOWING THIS STORM. (PAH)
2200 PILOT KNOB IRON MO 3762 9064 ANOTHER TOUCHDOWN IN THE AREA...DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER REPORT...RELAYED FROM ST. FRANCOIS COUNTY SHERIFF (LSX)



I wonder if this can be bigger then March 12th event? I wonder if we can get 100 tornadoe's.

[CrazyC83]

27 tornado reports at this point here. Many, many more unaccounted for.

[Brent]

Sounds like a major tornado has hit Blount County, Alabama northeast of Birmingham near Oneonta. Many many reports coming in of damage. It's pretty much the only storm in the state and doesn't look as impressive now. Local TV is on.

[Gorky]

Here's the radar from Blount County at that time.

[CrazyC83]

That looks really bad. I heard reports of houses destroyed there.

[Bunkertor]

Have you seen that lightnings on http://www.abc25.com/Global/story.asp?S=4714898 ?

[CrazyC83]

Yes I did, it was amazing!

I have shifted back to http://www.kait8.com

More supercells firing up to the west - we could be seeing a Round 2 late this evening! And unlike the afternoon storms, this has more potential to be deadly.

[Nate-Gillson]

This could very well be one very loooooong night for northern Arkansas.

[CrazyC83]

How about this:

2115 BAYOU LIVINGSTON KY 3724 8847 FOLLOW UP REPORT - PRELIMINARY SURVEY HAS A TORNADO PATH OF 1/2 TO 1 MILES WIDE AND 5 MILES LONG. STARTED AT BAYOU KY TO HAMPTON KY...POWER LINES DOWN...HOUSES DAMAGED (PAH)

[CrazyC83]

Northern Arkansas could be in for a catastrophic blow tonight. EVERY ONE of these cells are capable of strong to violent, long-track tornadoes. Hopefully they don't strike large populated areas, and we hold on to the 0 death toll we have now (which is the best thing to come out of this so far).

[Bunkertor]

Yes I did, it was amazing!

I have shifted back to http://www.kait8.com

More supercells firing up to the west - we could be seeing a Round 2 late this evening! And unlike the afternoon storms, this has more potential to be deadly.

What makes you think so ?

[CrazyC83]

Yes I did, it was amazing!

I have shifted back to http://www.kait8.com

More supercells firing up to the west - we could be seeing a Round 2 late this evening! And unlike the afternoon storms, this has more potential to be deadly.

What makes you think so ?

More potential to be deadly? Nighttime tornadoes are harder to see and prepare for, plus some may be asleep.

[Bunkertor]

A OK ! I don´t know. I think, a things develope through Arkansas, people must have been warned enough. So when this ist MDT what is high ?

By the way. Is that your 6th hour on pc ?

[CrazyC83]

A OK ! I don´t know. I think, a things develope through Arkansas, people must have been warned enough.
Bythe way. Is that your 6th hour on pc ?

This would be my 6th or 7th with occasional breaks.

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR AND SCNTRL/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 787...

VALID 230032Z - 230200Z

TORNADO WATCH 787 HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 02Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
LIKELY...PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS
EXTREME SRN MO.

NRN END OF THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO
SWWD TO NEAR KSGF THEN INTO NERN OK. LOW-LEVEL MSTR WAS BEGINNING
TO SURGE BACK NWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.

RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE
FROM ATOKA SWWD INTO BRYAN COUNTIES IN OK WHERE CINH HAS WEAKENED.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL
AR THROUGH MID-EVENING. THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.

FARTHER N...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SWRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION WAS INCREASING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

..RACY.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34089647 37739416 38279306 37939153 37059167 36789309
36339370 34079499