9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY AND SRN
IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790...

VALID 230050Z - 230245Z

THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF WW 788 AND INTO WW 790 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER
AFTER 02Z...MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF WW 788 WILL LIKELY SEE
SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND
A NEW WW IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW
SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING LEFT SPLITTING STORMS/ MAY MOVE INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 788 FROM WW/S 792 AND 787 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THEREFORE THIS IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A REPLACEMENT WW OVER SERN
MO BEFORE 02Z.

LATEST VWP DATA INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
WRN INTO NRN AR. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN AR /SOUTH
OF WW 788/. HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO SRN
MO BEYOND 02Z SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER
NORTH...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE STL
METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 790 BY AROUND 02Z. CONVECTIVE
LINE /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL TORNADO/SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF WW 788 BEYOND
02Z.

FURTHER EAST...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS OVER WRN KY AND SERN IL/SWRN IND /WW 790/ AS CONVECTIVE
LINES/CELLS MOVES OUT OF SWRN IL AND SERN MO. WITH SFC WARM FRONT
IN THE REGION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KY/FAR SRN IND IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS A NEW WW EAST OF WW 790 IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CROSBIE.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

36718608 38488506 38478697 38508860 40278824 39799064
38969137 36589183 36558932

[JonathanBelles]

how many tornadoes so far?

[Bunkertor]

how many tornadoes so far?

34 count. But rising

[Nate-Gillson]

The KAIT8 stream is really getting bad. Must be server overload.

[JonathanBelles]

how many tornadoes so far?

34 count. But rising

well im expecting at least 100

[CrazyC83]

New watch 793 coming out...

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 787...WW 788...WW
790...WW 791...WW 792...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS SW OF SDF APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING
INTO A LARGE SUPERCELL COMPLEX. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY E OF THIS STORM CLUSTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN BASED
VERY NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...THOMPSON


SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
GREEN KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 787...WW 788...WW
790...WW 791...WW 792...

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS SW OF SDF APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING
INTO A LARGE SUPERCELL COMPLEX. THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY E OF THIS STORM CLUSTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN BASED
VERY NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...THOMPSON


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 230117
WOU3

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

TORNADO WATCH 793 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC001-003-005-009-021-027-029-031-045-053-057-061-067-073-079-
085-087-091-093-099-103-111-113-123-137-141-155-163-167-169-171-
179-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-223-227-229-239-230700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0793.060923T0120Z-060923T0700Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON
BARREN BOYLE BRECKINRIDGE
BULLITT BUTLER CASEY
CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON
FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD
GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK
HARDIN HART HENRY
JEFFERSON JESSAMINE LARUE
LINCOLN LOGAN MARION
MEADE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE NELSON OHIO
OLDHAM RUSSELL SCOTT
SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER
TAYLOR TRIMBLE WARREN
WASHINGTON WOODFORD


ATTN...WFO...LMK...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW3
WW 793 TORNADO KY 230120Z - 230700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
85NNE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/ - 25SSE BWG/BOWLING GREEN KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /11W LOU - 20SSE BWG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

LAT...LON 38098472 36638516 36638733 38098693

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.


Watch 793 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[Bunkertor]

how many tornadoes so far?

34 count. But rising

well im expecting at least 100

Same here. Someone´s on the atlantic cable. I thought about 70 but didn´t want to post it. They just showed baseballsize-hailstones.

[CrazyC83]

The KAIT8 stream is really getting bad. Must be server overload.

I would think that would be indeed the case.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking 60 to 80 in the end. Many tornadoes are still being assessed and brought into the offices - a lot of big ones have not appeared on the SPC site yet.

[CrazyC83]

Any thoughts about tomorrow? Could the outbreak continue?

[PTrackerLA]

There were two confirmed tornadoes in our area yesterday afternoon and evening. Quite surprising given that there was NO notice of this possibility bringing severe weather as a warm front lifted through the area. Here's a link to a few pictures. http://livedoppler10.blogspot.com/2006/ ... -pics.html

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, I read about those on the SPC site but didn't know much about them.

More storms popping up in Oklahoma, one of them now has a tornado warning on it in Choctaw County.

[isobar]

Day 2 Outlook hinted at upgrading to MDT.

[CrazyC83]

Marmaduke, AR - devastated on April 2 - in harm's way again!

[CrazyC83]

115mph wind shear headed into Marmaduke - that is just scary, considering many there are in FEMA trailers...

[jhamps10]

isobar, I highly agree w/ SPC. that we will have a solid MDT day tomorrow, one of those days where afterwards Wayne Hart loses his voice for a few days after being on basically every media outlet in the tri-state, except channel 7 and 14 of course...

[Extremeweatherguy]

115mph wind shear headed into Marmaduke - that is just scary, considering many there are in FEMA trailers...

wow. That IS scary.

[wxmann_91]

I think the prelim count will only be about 40-50, with about 40 final tallies.

Face it, it's extremely difficult to get 100 tornadoes.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN/SCNTRL MO...NRN/WRN AR AND W TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 792...794...

VALID 230323Z - 230530Z

03Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RVRS SWWD TO ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER THEN
INTO ECNTRL OK VCNTY KMKO. THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING INTO CNTRL
AND SWRN OK.

WEAKEST INHIBITION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SERN OK AND IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR VCNTY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN AR. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE
WITH RIGHT-MOVING MEMBERS EXPERIENCING 0-1KM SRH RANGING FROM 200
M2/S2 OVER SERN OK TO OVER 400 M2/S2 ACROSS NRN AR. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FROM EXTREME SWRN MO SWWD INTO ECNTRL
OK AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOSH BACK WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
FARTHER W WITH TIME INTO CNTRL OK AFTER 06Z AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. STRONGER INHIBITION ACROSS
CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..RACY.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34069652 35749592 36749495 37349381 37429188 36519097
36538963 36468850 35818862 35488904 35439129 35399270
34719348 34419437 34149492

[CrazyC83]

I think we dodged a major bullet.

NO deaths - the first major outbreak in a long time to have such.