000
WTNT23 KNHC 201434
TCMAT3
HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1500 UTC WED SEP 20 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 56.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..375NE 300SE 225SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 56.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 56.0W
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.3N 57.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.4N 57.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.3N 56.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 35.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 40.5N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 275SW 275NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 46.0N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 50.0N 28.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 56.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
T Storm Helene Advisories=Last Advisory Written by NHC
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cycloneye
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WTNT43 KNHC 202031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
A NOAA P-3 EQUIPPED WITH THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN SAMPLING
HELENE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR...THE DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE
EYEWALL IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD.
AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN
THE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE DATA FROM THE SFMR AND THE LARGE WIND
FIELD ARGUE AGAINST A 90 KT HURRICANE...AN EYEWALL DROP REPORTED AN
IMPRESSIVE 960 MB. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESSURE AND THE FACT THAT THE
PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 90 KT. IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS IN
SUBSEQUENT PASSES...THE INTENSITY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE TROUGH INTERACTIONS...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT HELENE MAY ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HELENE
MAY STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY
DAY 2...HELENE STARTS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SINCE BAROCLINIC
FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. INDEED HELENE MAY BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
HELENE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/08. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH WITH THE GFS AND GFDL ALONG THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE NOGAPS PERFORMED WELL DURING GORDON...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY REGISTERING
AT SEVERAL EAST COAST BUOYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 26.6N 57.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 27.9N 57.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 30.6N 57.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 33.9N 55.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 37.5N 52.3W 85 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/1800Z 43.5N 43.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 24/1800Z 48.5N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
A NOAA P-3 EQUIPPED WITH THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN SAMPLING
HELENE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS FAR...THE DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE
EYEWALL IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD.
AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN
THE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE DATA FROM THE SFMR AND THE LARGE WIND
FIELD ARGUE AGAINST A 90 KT HURRICANE...AN EYEWALL DROP REPORTED AN
IMPRESSIVE 960 MB. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESSURE AND THE FACT THAT THE
PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 90 KT. IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS IN
SUBSEQUENT PASSES...THE INTENSITY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE TROUGH INTERACTIONS...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT HELENE MAY ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HELENE
MAY STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY
DAY 2...HELENE STARTS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SINCE BAROCLINIC
FORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST. INDEED HELENE MAY BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
HELENE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/08. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH WITH THE GFS AND GFDL ALONG THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE NOGAPS PERFORMED WELL DURING GORDON...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND
CURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY REGISTERING
AT SEVERAL EAST COAST BUOYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 26.6N 57.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 27.9N 57.5W 90 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 30.6N 57.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 33.9N 55.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 37.5N 52.3W 85 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 23/1800Z 43.5N 43.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 24/1800Z 48.5N 35.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
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cycloneye
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767
WTNT33 KNHC 210232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 20 2006
...HELENE TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 210232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 20 2006
...HELENE TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES...
950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.1 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146130
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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979
WTNT43 KNHC 210254
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
OVERALL...HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWED MINIMAL CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...POSSIBLY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SEEN IN DATA FROM
NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT. SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGE...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE
EYE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85
KT BASED ON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 MISSION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.
HELENE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 360/8. THE HURRICANE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED AFTER 24-36 HR. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN 6
HR AGO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF...AND IS SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HELENE TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE...AND THIS REMAINS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
RECURVATURE...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS
SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MODEL SURFACE
FIELDS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO INTERACT WITH HELENE AT ABOUT 48
HR. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THOSE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT HELENE MAY NOT BECOME A CLASSIC COLD CORE CYCLONE.
INSTEAD...THEY SUGGEST THAT HELENE WILL BECOME AN ASYMMETRIC WARM
CORE SYSTEM AS TRANSITION BEGINS...THEN REGAIN A SYMMETRIC WARM
CORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A NON-TROPICAL SECLUSION PROCESS
RATHER THAN THE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PROCESS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BE DELAYED 24 HR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION...HELENE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 27.1N 57.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 28.6N 57.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 31.2N 56.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 34.0N 54.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 37.2N 51.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 43.0N 42.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/0000Z 48.0N 32.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0000Z 52.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 210254
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006
OVERALL...HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWED MINIMAL CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...POSSIBLY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SEEN IN DATA FROM
NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT. SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGE...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE
EYE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85
KT BASED ON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 MISSION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.
HELENE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION NOW 360/8. THE HURRICANE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED AFTER 24-36 HR. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN 6
HR AGO. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF...AND IS SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HELENE TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE...AND THIS REMAINS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
RECURVATURE...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS
SEND MIXED SIGNALS ON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE MODEL SURFACE
FIELDS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO INTERACT WITH HELENE AT ABOUT 48
HR. HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THOSE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT HELENE MAY NOT BECOME A CLASSIC COLD CORE CYCLONE.
INSTEAD...THEY SUGGEST THAT HELENE WILL BECOME AN ASYMMETRIC WARM
CORE SYSTEM AS TRANSITION BEGINS...THEN REGAIN A SYMMETRIC WARM
CORE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A NON-TROPICAL SECLUSION PROCESS
RATHER THAN THE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PROCESS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BE DELAYED 24 HR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION...HELENE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 27.1N 57.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 28.6N 57.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 31.2N 56.3W 90 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 34.0N 54.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 37.2N 51.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 43.0N 42.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/0000Z 48.0N 32.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/0000Z 52.0N 24.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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203
WTNT43 KNHC 211446
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WITH THE
COLDEST CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED. USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T...AND CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE HURRICANE. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND HELENE WILL BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE DO NOT RESTRENGTHEN HELENE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL NOT EITHER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11. HELENE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL EAST OF
THE HURRICANE. HELENE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.6N 56.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 31.4N 56.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 34.1N 54.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.8N 51.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 39.6N 46.6W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1200Z 45.2N 36.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1200Z 49.5N 28.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
WTNT43 KNHC 211446
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WITH THE
COLDEST CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED. USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T...AND CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT SOME
MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE HURRICANE. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND HELENE WILL BE
MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE DO NOT RESTRENGTHEN HELENE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL NOT EITHER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11. HELENE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL EAST OF
THE HURRICANE. HELENE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS
MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.6N 56.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 31.4N 56.3W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 34.1N 54.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.8N 51.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 39.6N 46.6W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1200Z 45.2N 36.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1200Z 49.5N 28.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146130
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
584
WTNT33 KNHC 212037
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006
...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC....
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH HELENE WILL BE PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.7 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
910
WTNT43 KNHC 212036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
A 1531 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT BANDING FEATURES
WERE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HELENE'S APPEARANCE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE WITH AN AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND OVER 26 TO 27C WATER.
THEREAFTER...HELENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HELENE TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING
THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS MORE CLOSELY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12. HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT HELENE SHOULD VERY SOON ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS HELENE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UKMET
TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS TAKE IT QUICKLY
NORTHWARD MERGING IT WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE ECMWF
TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATER MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 30.7N 56.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 32.7N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 35.4N 53.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 37.9N 49.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 40.7N 43.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1800Z 46.5N 32.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1800Z 58.0N 18.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT33 KNHC 212037
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006
...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC....
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH HELENE WILL BE PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.7 N...56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA
910
WTNT43 KNHC 212036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
A 1531 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT BANDING FEATURES
WERE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HELENE'S APPEARANCE IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE WITH AN AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND OVER 26 TO 27C WATER.
THEREAFTER...HELENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR
INCREASES AND SSTS COOL. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HELENE TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING
THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS MORE CLOSELY.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12. HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT HELENE SHOULD VERY SOON ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ALONG
THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS HELENE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UKMET
TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS TAKE IT QUICKLY
NORTHWARD MERGING IT WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS
CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE ECMWF
TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATER MODEL.
EVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 30.7N 56.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 32.7N 55.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 35.4N 53.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 37.9N 49.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 40.7N 43.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1800Z 46.5N 32.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1800Z 52.0N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1800Z 58.0N 18.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146130
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
893
WTNT33 KNHC 220239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006
...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.8 N...56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 220239
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FOR BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 75 KT.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO WITH ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP HELENE IN A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT DAY.
AFTER WHICH...VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS HELENE
TRANSITIONS INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015/12. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH RACING EASTWARD TOWARD
HELENE WITH A DRY PUNCH OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
ACCELERATE HELENE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS HELENE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE UKMET IS THE GREATEST OUTLIER AND TAKES
HELENE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH...AND SHIFTS THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TAKE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DATA FROM A 2226 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 31.8N 56.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 54.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 36.3N 51.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 38.9N 45.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 41.7N 40.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0000Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z 58.0N 17.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 220239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 21 2006
...HELENE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES...
805 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST...WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...31.8 N...56.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 220239
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006
THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND
BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS
HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FOR BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 75 KT.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO WITH ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP HELENE IN A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT DAY.
AFTER WHICH...VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS HELENE
TRANSITIONS INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015/12. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH RACING EASTWARD TOWARD
HELENE WITH A DRY PUNCH OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
ACCELERATE HELENE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS HELENE
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE UKMET IS THE GREATEST OUTLIER AND TAKES
HELENE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH...AND SHIFTS THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
TAKE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DATA FROM A 2226 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 31.8N 56.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 54.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 36.3N 51.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 38.9N 45.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 41.7N 40.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0000Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0000Z 51.5N 23.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z 58.0N 17.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE EYE REMAINING CLOUD-OBSCURED. A
22/0518Z AQUA-1 OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE HAD RETAINED GOOD
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL HAD ERODED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
AT T4.5/77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. HELENE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 65W LONGITUDE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE AT A MORE RAPID PACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED WELL WITH GORDON.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 32.9N 55.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 35.0N 53.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 37.6N 48.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 40.3N 43.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.0N 37.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0600Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z 51.5N 22.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 58.0N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE EYE REMAINING CLOUD-OBSCURED. A
22/0518Z AQUA-1 OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE HAD RETAINED GOOD
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL HAD ERODED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
AT T4.5/77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. HELENE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 65W LONGITUDE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE AT A MORE RAPID PACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND
BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF
THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED WELL WITH GORDON.
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 32.9N 55.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 35.0N 53.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 37.6N 48.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 40.3N 43.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/0600Z 43.0N 37.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0600Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z 51.5N 22.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 58.0N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146130
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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054
WTNT43 KNHC 222043
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.
THE OVERALL SATELLITE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT HELENE
IS ENTERING THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN
ADDITION TO DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...THE OVERALL CLOUD SHIELD IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT HELENE IS NOW STARTING TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DETERMINING WHEN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. DESPITE THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STRUCTURE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
WARM CORE CYCLONE...ALBEIT ASYMMETRIC...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE RECENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...A LITTLE SOONER
THAN BEFORE. ONCE HELENE TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
RESTRENGTHENING...AND HELENE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HELENE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.
HELENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES...RESULTING IN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/18. TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO
THAT NEVER MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
CONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 35.4N 53.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 36.8N 50.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 38.4N 45.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/0600Z 40.3N 40.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 42.2N 36.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z 47.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 51.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
WTNT43 KNHC 222043
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS THE
INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.
THE OVERALL SATELLITE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT HELENE
IS ENTERING THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN
ADDITION TO DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...THE OVERALL CLOUD SHIELD IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT HELENE IS NOW STARTING TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DETERMINING WHEN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC. DESPITE THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STRUCTURE SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SHALLOW
WARM CORE CYCLONE...ALBEIT ASYMMETRIC...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE RECENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...A LITTLE SOONER
THAN BEFORE. ONCE HELENE TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE
RESTRENGTHENING...AND HELENE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HELENE IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.
HELENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES...RESULTING IN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/18. TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO
THAT NEVER MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
CONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 35.4N 53.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 36.8N 50.1W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 38.4N 45.3W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/0600Z 40.3N 40.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1800Z 42.2N 36.1W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1800Z 47.0N 28.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 51.0N 20.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z 55.0N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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cycloneye
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705
WTNT33 KNHC 230230
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 22 2006
...HELENE GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL STORM...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850
MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1305 MILES...
2100 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT HELENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...36.0 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 230230
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
HELENE IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESS TROPICAL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...
WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER TOPS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM AFWA...AND EXTRATROPICAL FROM SAB. QUIKSCAT
DATA FROM 22Z SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
ONE QUESTIONABLE-LOOKING 65 KT VECTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...HELENE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT
TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
HELENE TURNED TO THE RIGHT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT SINCE THEN
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TURNING BACK TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/20. HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HR IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS. THE 12Z ECMWF...THE 18Z GFS...AND THE 18Z NOGAPS ALL
TURN HELENE SOUTHWARD AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET...THE 18Z GFDL...AND THE 18Z GFS
ENSEMBLE-MEAN ALL FORECAST HELENE TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE
THE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS RUNS SHOW MAJOR CHANGES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS THAT TOOK HELENE NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS TOO SOON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE
CENTER...SUGGESTING THE THE COLD FRONT THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS HAS LED TO AN EARLIER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAN FORECAST 24-48 HR AGO. ALTHOUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HELENE MAY KEEP A WARM
CORE OF SOME TYPE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12-24 HR. HELENE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN SOME AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 36 HR...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 36.0N 50.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 37.0N 47.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0000Z 38.5N 42.6W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1200Z 40.0N 38.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0000Z 42.1N 33.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 45.5N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 53.0N 12.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT33 KNHC 230230
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 22 2006
...HELENE GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL STORM...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 850
MILES...1370 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1305 MILES...
2100 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT HELENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...36.0 N...50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT43 KNHC 230230
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006
HELENE IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESS TROPICAL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING. ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...
WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER TOPS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT
FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM AFWA...AND EXTRATROPICAL FROM SAB. QUIKSCAT
DATA FROM 22Z SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
ONE QUESTIONABLE-LOOKING 65 KT VECTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
BASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...HELENE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT
TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.
HELENE TURNED TO THE RIGHT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT SINCE THEN
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TURNING BACK TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/20. HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HR IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS. THE 12Z ECMWF...THE 18Z GFS...AND THE 18Z NOGAPS ALL
TURN HELENE SOUTHWARD AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET...THE 18Z GFDL...AND THE 18Z GFS
ENSEMBLE-MEAN ALL FORECAST HELENE TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD. SINCE
THE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS RUNS SHOW MAJOR CHANGES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS THAT TOOK HELENE NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS TOO SOON TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. THUS...THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE
CENTER...SUGGESTING THE THE COLD FRONT THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS HAS LED TO AN EARLIER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAN FORECAST 24-48 HR AGO. ALTHOUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HELENE MAY KEEP A WARM
CORE OF SOME TYPE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12-24 HR. HELENE WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN SOME AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 36 HR...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 36.0N 50.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 37.0N 47.1W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0000Z 38.5N 42.6W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1200Z 40.0N 38.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0000Z 42.1N 33.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 45.5N 26.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 53.0N 12.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
800 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1105 MILES
...1775 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...37.4 N...47.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
800 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1105 MILES
...1775 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...37.4 N...47.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146130
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTNT43 KNHC 231226
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FOR HELENE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT HELENE CONTAINS A LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
BASED ON THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH WAS
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ALSO BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. EVEN
THOUGH HELENE HAS STRENGTHENED...IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1200Z 37.4N 47.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FOR HELENE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES THAT HELENE CONTAINS A LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
BASED ON THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH WAS
OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ALSO BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. EVEN
THOUGH HELENE HAS STRENGTHENED...IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1200Z 37.4N 47.2W 80 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 38.2N 44.8W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 39.7N 40.3W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 41.5N 35.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z 43.3N 31.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0600Z 46.8N 23.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0600Z 50.4N 16.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
WTNT43 KNHC 231445
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
HELENE APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE
STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80
KT. UNTIL THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...WHICH COULD HAPPEN
AT ANY TIME...HELENE WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL
HAPPEN LATER TODAY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE WIND
FIELD SPREADS OUT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD MEANS THAT GALE FORCE
WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AZORES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. BEYOND 48
HOURS...WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT.
HELENE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 065/20. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BY DAY 5. THE
NOGAPS MODEL FORECASTS HELENE TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD TURN. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE AZORES RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TURNING SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF EITHER OF THESE
OUTLIER SCENARIOS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS NEAR BOTH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AND
A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE
SPREAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 37.7N 46.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 38.9N 43.0W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1200Z 40.7N 38.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 44.1N 30.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.5N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
HELENE APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE
STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80
KT. UNTIL THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...WHICH COULD HAPPEN
AT ANY TIME...HELENE WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL
HAPPEN LATER TODAY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE WIND
FIELD SPREADS OUT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD MEANS THAT GALE FORCE
WINDS COULD AFFECT THE AZORES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. BEYOND 48
HOURS...WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT.
HELENE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 065/20. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BY DAY 5. THE
NOGAPS MODEL FORECASTS HELENE TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD TURN. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE AZORES RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TURNING SOUTH.
AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF EITHER OF THESE
OUTLIER SCENARIOS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS NEAR BOTH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AND
A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE
SPREAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 37.7N 46.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 38.9N 43.0W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1200Z 40.7N 38.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.2W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z 44.1N 30.7W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1200Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1200Z 49.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1200Z 50.5N 13.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
WTNT33 KNHC 231442
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES
...1700 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.7 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES
...1700 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...37.7 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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dwsqos2
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE REMAINS A HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES...
1520 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...44.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
000
WTNT43 KNHC 232031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
HELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL
HAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO
STILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER. HELENE
IS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT
CLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE. SINCE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC
QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
APPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS
OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT. ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
COMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT.
HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE
SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET
MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE
ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD
TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 38.0N 44.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
WTNT33 KNHC 232031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006
...HELENE REMAINS A HURRICANE...
AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST OR ABOUT 945 MILES...
1520 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE...AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES...GALE FORCE WINDS COULD
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BEGINNING TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HELENE GRADUALLY LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 130 MILES...215 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...38.0 N...44.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
000
WTNT43 KNHC 232031
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006
HELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL
HAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO
STILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER. HELENE
IS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT
CLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE. SINCE THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC
QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY
APPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS
OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT. ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
COMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS
BAROCLINIC SUPPORT.
HELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19. THERE HAS OTHERWISE
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE
SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT
NEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE. THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE UKMET
MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE
ECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD
TURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 38.0N 44.4W 80 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 39.1N 40.9W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1800Z 41.3N 36.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 32.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1800Z 44.6N 28.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/1800Z 47.0N 21.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/1800Z 49.0N 15.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/1800Z 51.0N 11.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
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-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 429, SATURDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2006 AT 1930971 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 23 AT 12 UTC
HURRICANE HELENE MOVING NORTHEAST, EXPECTED 978 41N38W BY 24/12UTC,
THEN 971 43N34W BY 25/00UTC, AND 44N38W BY 25/12UTC.
FARADAY
FROM 24/15UTC TO 25/12UTC AT LEAST
IN WEST, NORTHEASTERLY 8 TO 10. VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH.
ALTAIR
FROM 24/09UTC TO 25/09UTC AT LEAST.
BECOMING CYCLONIC 10 TO 12 (65 KTS), DECREASING 9 TO 11 LATER.
VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH.
ACORES
FROM 24/09UTC TO 25/12UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTHERLY 8 INCREASING 8 TO 10 SOON, AND VEERING SOUTHWEST LATER.
VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH.=
WARNING NR 429, SATURDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2006 AT 1930971 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SATURDAY 23 AT 12 UTC
HURRICANE HELENE MOVING NORTHEAST, EXPECTED 978 41N38W BY 24/12UTC,
THEN 971 43N34W BY 25/00UTC, AND 44N38W BY 25/12UTC.
FARADAY
FROM 24/15UTC TO 25/12UTC AT LEAST
IN WEST, NORTHEASTERLY 8 TO 10. VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH.
ALTAIR
FROM 24/09UTC TO 25/09UTC AT LEAST.
BECOMING CYCLONIC 10 TO 12 (65 KTS), DECREASING 9 TO 11 LATER.
VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH.
ACORES
FROM 24/09UTC TO 25/12UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTHERLY 8 INCREASING 8 TO 10 SOON, AND VEERING SOUTHWEST LATER.
VIOLENT GUSTS. SEA BECOMING HIGH TO VERY HIGH.=
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
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WTNT33 KNHC 240836
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2006
...HELENE CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...COULD SPREAD GALES OVER THE
AZORES TONIGHT...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375
MILES...600 KM. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...39.9 N...39.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT43 KNHC 240835
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006
HELENE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS OF IT NOW THAN 6 HOURS
AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT BASED ON THE EARIER
QUIKSCAT DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
APPROACHING HELENE COULD KEEP THE WINDS UP...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS SHOWN UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IN ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF IT HASN'T ALREADY LOST IT'S
DEEP CONVECTION BY THEN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON A CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF DROPPING HELENE
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE AZORES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING
OF THE TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH OF HELENE...WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 39.9N 39.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 41.6N 36.6W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 33.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1800Z 44.5N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0600Z 45.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0600Z 47.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2006
...HELENE CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...COULD SPREAD GALES OVER THE
AZORES TONIGHT...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1135 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR.
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 375
MILES...600 KM. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...GALE
FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...39.9 N...39.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT43 KNHC 240835
TCDAT3
HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006
HELENE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS OF IT NOW THAN 6 HOURS
AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT BASED ON THE EARIER
QUIKSCAT DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
APPROACHING HELENE COULD KEEP THE WINDS UP...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS SHOWN UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH IN ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF IT HASN'T ALREADY LOST IT'S
DEEP CONVECTION BY THEN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON A CONTINUED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF DROPPING HELENE
SOUTHWARD NEAR THE AZORES. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING
OF THE TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPS SOUTH OF HELENE...WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 39.9N 39.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 41.6N 36.6W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z 43.2N 33.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 25/1800Z 44.5N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0600Z 45.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0600Z 47.0N 18.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WTNT43 KNHC 241426
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER OF HELENE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED
DEFINITIVE FRONTAL FEATURES WITH EXTENSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. MOREOVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0900
UTC SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BECOMING REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS IS TYPICAL OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES
BASED ON THESE DATA IS SHOWING A WARM CORE...WE BELIEVE THIS IS DUE
TO A WARM SECLUSION THAT IS COMMON IN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES. BASED ON THE ABOVE ANALYSES...THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS CONSIDERED COMPLETE... AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/18...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS
TO DIVERGE AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. IN LIGHT OF THE MODEL
SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE 65 KT VECTORS
AND...ASSUMING GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A
CONTINUED SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL IT COMBINES
WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC AND BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 40.9N 37.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1200Z 43.6N 31.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/0000Z 44.2N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1200Z 45.1N 23.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER OF HELENE.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED
DEFINITIVE FRONTAL FEATURES WITH EXTENSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. MOREOVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0900
UTC SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BECOMING REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS IS TYPICAL OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES
BASED ON THESE DATA IS SHOWING A WARM CORE...WE BELIEVE THIS IS DUE
TO A WARM SECLUSION THAT IS COMMON IN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONES. BASED ON THE ABOVE ANALYSES...THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS CONSIDERED COMPLETE... AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/18...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS
TO DIVERGE AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. IN LIGHT OF THE MODEL
SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE 65 KT VECTORS
AND...ASSUMING GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A
CONTINUED SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL IT COMBINES
WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC AND BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 40.9N 37.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 25/0000Z 42.5N 34.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/1200Z 43.6N 31.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/0000Z 44.2N 28.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/1200Z 45.1N 23.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/1200Z 48.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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