Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[cycloneye]

SouthFloridawx,I think the area still inside Africa is the one that GFS moves west into the Caribbean.

[hurricanetrack]

I am not so sure. It looks like a larg envelope there with a tail stretching out in to the Atlantic from Africa and it curls in and back around just south of Cape Verde. It appears it is at a low latitude as well- if I am even correct about what I think I am seeing. Give it a few days- the GFS has certainly been persistent about it- so we will know in about 72 hours or so if this is real or another bogus cyclone.

[Dean4Storms]

Did you notice the huge Atlantic ridge and the parade still coming westward from Africa? If this forecast verifies it could be a long first half of October!

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, the GFS continues to show tropical cyclones roaming around the Basin well in to October. If we see just half of the activity it depicts, it could make for an interesting 16 days ahead. It is tough to get out of a hurricane season with no hurricane landfalls in the U.S. We have certainly had them before, even back-to-back (2000 and 2001) but it is not normal to have a "no hurricane landfall" season. I suspect that one of these will get through and we'll see a hurricane hit somewhere- who knows- we could end up a lot like 2002 with an Isidore/Lili set up coming in the next couple of weeks. Definitely not the time to turn a blind eye to the tropics.

[Robjohn53]

I keep thinking about JB's first forcast for the year. He said somthing to the efect that Florida could probly get a big one around the end of the season. Kinda makes me nervous now. But he also said that the EC would get most of the hurricanes this year too. Yet if not for that stuff thats been sending them out to sea he could have been very right. Cause they all came up to the north.

[PTrackerLA]

While I take that 18z gfs run with a grain of salt because it's so far out it might be showing what the pattern will be like then. Also with all the fronts coming down right now I wouldn't be surprised to see something form in the gulf in the next few weeks. There have been quite a few notable northern GOM hurricanes in early October, Opal and Lili come to mind.

[fci]

Really if no system has made it all the way across from the Cape Verde/Africa area; then why would one make it this late in the season?
Just doesn't make sense to happen now; logically.

IMO, Now we watch for about 4-6 weeks the Carib and GOM and then it is over.

[WeatherEmperor]

I just want to show you guys that the 00Z GFS that is now rolling out continues to develop a tropical low for now the 5th consecutive model run(it could be longer cause I didnt older model runs) Since this is the 5th straight run with the GFS developing a tropical low, shouldnt that mean that we should pay some more attention to the GFS or is it still way too early?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126s.gif

<RICKY>

[boca]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The 00GFS still has the tropical low heading west and hits a roadblock at Puerto Rico and heads northward. Climatology always wins.As someone stated last year don't trust the models past 72 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

The 00GFS still has the tropical low heading west and hits a roadblock at Puerto Rico and heads northward. Climatology always wins.As someone stated last year don't trust the models past 72 hours.

Yeah lets hope it's not too developed when it rolls on into PR. I don't think they need a system over them for a few days.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical system the GFS is developing is the one just SW of the Cape Verde islands. While I don't trust the individual systems this model tends to develop, in this particular case it may be right. Right now, the system appears to be gathering itself and very slowly taking form. While it doesn't look like much as of the present time, don't be fooled. Experience tells me that it'll likely look more consolidated by this time tomorrow. After that, it appears that this system has a good potential of becoming Joyce.

Ironically, in 2000 Joyce developed in just about the same location and time of year where this current system is located. If this were 2000, the system NW of it (96L) would be Hurricane Isaac. Joyce would sneak in underneath poleward-moving Isaac with a target toward the Lesser Antilles.

Here's a simple image depicting the actual tropical system (It hasn't been analyzed as a tropical wave, but it's quite possible it will be one in later analyses.):



Caribbean keep an eye on it...

[Dean4Storms]

I think you be right Hyper, that looks like the area the GFS develops in a few days.

Responding to those hanging on climatology for every system this time of year turning northward and missing the states come Oct. The last few years should have been enough to prove too everyone that climatology cannot always be trusted to verify on every system every year. With such an early start this year over the CONUS with such a fall like pattern it would not be a surprise to see a return to a more summerlike pattern come Oct., what we use to call an Indian Summer here in the South. If the GFS verifies and we end up with this huge ridge in the Atlantic it could very well mean a nasty October!!

[storms in NC]

I don't know if any one knows this but the CV season is done as far as coming across the Atlantic IMO

I do enjoy reading your thoughts you post from time to time but, rarely do I see actual facts or proof regarding your info. Why do you think CV is done? Just wondering - Not trying to be mean.

Sorry I didn't get back with you I wasn't on. As far as why I think the CV is over is to many cold fronts that are rolling off the east coast like hot cakes. Pluse the highs that are in place. It would just be very hard for one to come across the Atlantic at this time.
I wish I knew how to post maps on here but I can't seem to get it down. I can do links so here is one link. http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/surf/images/tanal.1.gif

And no I am not mad. Just and old granny trying to learn.

[Meso]

I have to disagree :/ The ridges that are now in place are more favourable for systems tracking west across the atlantic,compares to few days ago where anything would just get sucked out by trof after trof.GFS is picking up on some more waves rolling of africa still in it's runs.It will probably end soon,but I would say it's not quite done yet.The systems might take longer to develope and keep them from being CV systems,but the potential is still there IMO.

[caneman]

Take a look at the 06GFDL on this are behind the invest at end run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

Take a look at the 06GFDL on this are behind the invest at end run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I have to disagree :/ The ridges that are now in place are more favourable for systems tracking west across the atlantic,compares to few days ago where anything would just get sucked out by trof after trof.GFS is picking up on some more waves rolling of africa still in it's runs.

If you look at the link you can see they are still being pulled out to sea.

[Meso]

Invest 96l is being pulled out,that was pretty much a given. But it does build a high over it at a high lattitude.The 1008mb low that it shows at the end of the run is about 15 degrees further south than invest 96l is (at 126 hours). And the 1008mb might well be pulled out,but the ridge is not an anti-CV-across the atlantic feature,it works in favour of it.

[Sanibel]

After bringing model after model warning of a west-tracking system, and all storms taking big recurves out to sea, you think some people would learn.

[ronjon]

I think you be right Hyper, that looks like the area the GFS develops in a few days.

Responding to those hanging on climatology for every system this time of year turning northward and missing the states come Oct. The last few years should have been enough to prove too everyone that climatology cannot always be trusted to verify on every system every year. With such an early start this year over the CONUS with such a fall like pattern it would not be a surprise to see a return to a more summerlike pattern come Oct., what we use to call an Indian Summer here in the South. If the GFS verifies and we end up with this huge ridge in the Atlantic it could very well mean a nasty October!!

I agree Dean. After weeks of an eastern trough-western ridge, the pattern is bound to swing toward a western trough-eastern ridge set-up (negative PNA). This change in pattern often occurs after the first series of cold fronts have blasted through typically during the first two weeks of October (now that is climo). Most people call it Indian Summer because its summertime warmth after the first frost up north. When it does set up, there could easily be storms steered toward the US from the western Atlantic. The CV season is almost over - its doubtful a storm could traverse the Atlantic this late in the season but one that forms say just east of the Lesser Antilles could easily be a threat. I would also focus on the western Caribbean over the next 3-4 weeks as we usually get a strong storm forming down there in October.

[hial2]

[. I would also focus on the western Caribbean over the next 3-4 weeks as we usually get a strong storm forming down there in October.[/quote]

I disagree..On average, we see one Caribbean storm (not necessarily strong) every two years..Odds are nothing will develop, although I wouldn't bet the house on it..