9-22-06 Mid Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790...793...

VALID 230347Z - 230545Z

AREA WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME AND FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION
WITHIN STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE SOLIDIFYING INTO
CLUSTER/LINES...STRONG MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION WILL REMAIN LIKELY.
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITHIN RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
AND SRN KY WHERE SURFACE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE.

..JEWELL.. 09/23/2006


ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

36578903 37938717 38298481 37738441 36938489 36618527

[Coredesat]

HUGE mass of convection over the east central US:

[CrazyC83]

It ain't over yet!

WFUS54 KTSA 230442
TORTSA
OKC091-230530-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0068.060923T0442Z-060923T0530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RAIFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...VIVIAN...
STIDHAM...EUFAULA AND CHECOTAH.

TVS near Checotah now...

[CrazyC83]

HUGE mass of convection over the east central US:

Wow, that makes Helene look like a bunch of whispy cirrus clouds...

[JonathanBelles]

whats the tornado count up to now?

[CrazyC83]

whats the tornado count up to now?

36, although that will likely increase tomorrow as late reports come in.

[CrazyC83]

4 TVS's in eastern Oklahoma right now. 3 of them near Eufaula Lake.

[WindRunner]

Well, a good MOD is in place today (15 tornado and 45 wind, neither hatched), with tornado watches 796 and 797 up for central and northern AR, SW MO, S IL and W KY. Mostly a good squall line, but tornado warnings are going up again in northern AR along the worst part of the line.

Final LSR reports for yesterday included 37 tornado reports, though that number should definately rise.

[WindRunner]

Reports for the Thursday storms:

F1 in Russell Co. KS, and two others in Wichita's CWA:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/scripts/vie ... 2006092200

No official report from Hastings WFO as of yet, even though they had 6 tornado LSRs. And, more importantly, nothing from Tulsa as to the storm they had down there, which was probably one of the strongest on the day.

[NWIASpotter]

That tornado number might actually decrease, as a lot of those reports are going to be of the same tornado that were being reported at different times or just from a different person as well. A quick glance over and I think the tornado count should end up to be somewhere around 30 tornadoes for the day.

[CrazyC83]

They could go either way. Some went unreported that were mentioned by the media, and there will likely be duplicate reports or mistaken reports.

[TexasStooge]

At least there are no F5s in that area...thank goodness.

[NWIASpotter]

And likely a lot of reports for areas of Arkansas, southeast Missouri and areas of KY/TN will not have their surveys started until tomorrow due to the threat of severe weather today. So complete numbers likely won't be known until early next week, I do believe we might have seen an F3 in there with some of the reports that came in. Although I haven't seen damage photos to make a good suggestion of how strong some of the tornadoes could have been.

[wxmann_91]

Reports for the Thursday storms:

F1 in Russell Co. KS, and two others in Wichita's CWA:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/scripts/vie ... 2006092200

No official report from Hastings WFO as of yet, even though they had 6 tornado LSRs. And, more importantly, nothing from Tulsa as to the storm they had down there, which was probably one of the strongest on the day.

...But it was elevated. No surprise there.

I agree with NWIASpotter... the final count won't be as high.

[WindRunner]

...But it was elevated. No surprise there.

Elevated? How so? You can see a shot of the lowest tilit of BR/estimated SRV on page 3 of this thread . . . granted the lowest tilit is till pretty high at that range, but you would think with that strong of a rotation it would have had some surface reflection.

[NWIASpotter]

There were no reports of even large hail out of that storm, let alone a tornado. If there would have been one, then it would have been issued by now. Just becuase there was decent couplet doesn't mean that there is a tornado..

How high up was the tilt on that image?? Looking at just that image alone I can see that you may have been looking at the inflow from the southern side cuasing a dry punch which may indicate it was trying to wrap up, but that definitely doesn't indicate a tornado pursay.

[wxmann_91]

...But it was elevated. No surprise there.

Elevated? How so? You can see a shot of the lowest tilit of BR/estimated SRV on page 3 of this thread . . . granted the lowest tilit is till pretty high at that range, but you would think with that strong of a rotation it would have had some surface reflection.

No, elevated as in ingesting parcels above a stable boundary layer.

Tornadoes can form if SRH is high enough (there are two confirmed according to Wikipedia), but it's extremely difficult.

[Cyclenall]

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

This loops shows the Outbreak very well . Look near Texas.

[WindRunner]

Unfortunately, that was the 0.5° tilit, and it was at a little over 11kft. And that shear is 153kts in SRV (with a storm motion 270° at 41kts). It also shows up at around 80kts shear in the 1.4° tilit (22kft). These are the problems with storms in SE OK/NE TX - it's a huge radar hole. Tulsa, at around 100nm, was the closest radar to the storm when it was at its peak.

wxmann's explantion makes sense, as a stable layer should really hinder most everything that tries to form/exists around it. For those who care to analyze, the Level II files for this storm out of Tulsa will be posted here, one by one, as I upload them (each is around 1.8-2MB a piece, so be warned!). The 01:25Z file is the one that I posted the screen cap from.

http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0048
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0053
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0058
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0103
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0109
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0114
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0119
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0125
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0130
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0135
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0141
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0146
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0151
http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/6/28/ ... 60922_0157

[NWIASpotter]

At 11,000 feet there is no way you can look at that and indicate that a tornado should be on the ground. That is way to high up, in which case that is probably not even the lowest level of the storm. In sense, yes it could be rotating, it's a supercell it is supposed to be rotating that is what makes it a supercell.

Also wondering if you had dialiasing on the velocities? Is there anyway instead of loading them us as files, why don't you load them on the web as images, a lot easier for everybody.

Also, it really isn't a radar hole. As everywhere in the US has places like that, if there is a storm directly between two NWS stations, you just have to live with it. That is why they enjoy spotters so much in situations like that, I'm sure they were in the area and without even reports of a wall cloud from what I could find shows up that their was no rotation at the lowest level of that storm.