Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[SouthFloridawx]

I am going to have to disagree with a few of you saying that the season is over and that a system can't move westward. To me this is rediculous. It's like saying it will move northward because all the other onese have. Well the environment is ever constant changing you, act like it's always the same.

Please if there is a ridge, a wave develops and another through dips down too late to scoop it up from hitting the islands they you have a situation that equals a bad year for the islands eventhough all the other ones lifted out to sea.

[storms in NC]

[SouthFloridawx]

That's what I don't get... Just because you post an image of the Current Steering layer doesn't mean it will look like that in 3-4 days.

[caneman]

And run after run on the GFS including now the 12z GFS continues to show this feature threatning the islands. Hmmmmm. It's almost like a reverse -removed-:roll:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

And run after run on the GFS including now the 12z GFS continues to show this feature thretning the oslands. Hmmmmm. It's almost like a reverse -removed-:roll:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Maybe since there is weakness in the ridge right now they should turn thier heads away and not watch this one. Let's just say all the storms are going to be fish and that's it.

[storms in NC]

I am not saying it will NOT change. Weather changes every day. We have a saying here in NC if you don't like the weather stick around it will change.
I guess I am just going by what has been going on all summer here. There really hasn't been a good setup with the dry air and the shears they didn't have much of a chance. Now that most of the dry is gone and some of the shear we have which over to the fronts coming off the coast. And yes the fronts can slow and would give a storm a chance to come more west. And it could happen.

NWC out of Raleigh had a nice write up for next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1151 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SC COAST LATE
MORNING. A WARM FRONT HAD SURGED NORTH THROUGH NC INTO VA WITH A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RAPIDLY MOVING SE INTO THE NW NC
MOUNTAINS AT LATE MORNING. THE PARENT STORM CENTER WAS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MO VALLEY...
AND A WARM FRONT OVER TN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER AL/TN/KY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

THE WARM FRONT SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTRODUCING
SUMMER AGAIN TO CENTRAL NC. LATE MORNING DEW POINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT 65-70 OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. PW'S WERE IN THE 1.5
TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. 1100 AM TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED 80
OVER THE SANDHILLS... WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SUNSHINE. SOME
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG STORM TO OUR WEST MADE INTO
TO NEAR THE NW NC BORDER WITH NE TN THIS MORNING... BEFORE
WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN TN AND FAR WESTERN NC... MOVING NNE. THIS ACTIVTY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN W AND NW OF OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LIFT ELSEWHERE DUE TO
THE EXTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LATE MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEARING SKIES COMING OFF THE SW
MOUNTAINS FROM ASHEVILLE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE LOW LEVEL
SW FLOW WAS LARGELY DIVERGENT OVER NC... NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID LEVEL
DRY AIR UPSTREAM COMING OUR WAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY FROM OFF THE COAST INLAND OVER SC/NC.
THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TO THE WEST BLOCKED AND ALLOW AN INCREASE
IN SUBSIDENCE DRYING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY NW AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT MAX TEMP PROJECTIONS OF 83 NW TO 88
SOUTH APPEAR ON TARGET. WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOONE AND SPARTA IN THE N MOUNTAINS AT LATE
MORNING... STILL COMING EAST AT 35-40 MPH... IT SHOULD MAKE IT
CLOSE TO WINSTON-SALEM BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL PROVIDE A MINIMAL FOCUS
FOR SHOWER THREAT NW. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE KEPT FOR THE NW PIEDMONT FOR THE AFTERNOON. NO POP
ELSEWHERE.

THE RAIN CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NC UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FROM NW TO SE... AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES OFF THE BLUE RIDGE RATHER RAPIDLY. IT APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (2-3 HOURS) FOR SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... BEFORE THE FRONT CUTS OFF THE
MOISTURE.
&&
BADGETT


.PREV DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 255 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS HAVE
LEVELED OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 60S BUT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SIT NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW
THE 850 MB WARM FRONT STILL JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD
ZIP NORTHEAST THROUGH NC THIS MORNING... RESULTING IN INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS. LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE... RESPONSIBLE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES IN THE TRIAD AREA OVERNIGHT... WILL PERSIST
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY... AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE THE LONE DYNAMIC FORCING FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY.
THERMODYNAMICS HOWEVER APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS...
PROVIDING THE STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE ABLE
TO MIX OUT AND ALLOW FOR HEATING. THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS WAS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE NICELY YESTERDAY WITH 2700+ J/KG ON THE 00Z/23 BMX
SOUNDING (NOT TO MENTION THE 300 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH)... AND BASED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE MODELS MAY NOT BE SHOWING ENOUGH MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COMING INTO NC. WHILE FORECAST BULK SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STAY JUST BELOW 6 C/KM... MUCAPE
VALUES RISE TO OVER 1000 J/KG. WILL HOLD ONTO THE RISK OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON... LEAVING NO
POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB TODAY AND WHERE THE 1-2KM WARMING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE.
HIGHS 83-88... IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND NUMBERS INDICATED BY
THICKNESSES ADJUSTED FOR CLOUDS. EXPECT VARIABLE TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT WITH MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW INDICATING THAT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE BLOWUP TO OUR WEST WILL HEAD TO OUR NORTH. MILD LOWS
OF 67-71.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: THE LARGE MIDWEST VORTEX OPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE POSITIVELY
TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES NC FROM THE
WNW. THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY... HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT IT MAY STILL BE A FEW HOURS TOO
FAST WITH ITS SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BASED ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT... AND BASED ON ITS
POORER TERRAIN DEPICTION. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS LIKELY CWA-WIDE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1.8". THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE LESS THAN CERTAIN
WITH THE 850 MB JET HEADING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH... MEAGER FORCING IN
THE UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION... AND AN ARRIVAL TIME THAT WILL
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY... THEN WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY... ENDING EVERYWHERE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS TO
LINGER UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS
83-87 SUNDAY... AND MAINLY LOWER-MID 70S MONDAY. -GIH

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC COAST TUESDAY
MORNING... WAITING FOR A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION TO CROSS THE REGION
AND GIVE IT A KICK OFFSHORE. ANY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE NO NOTABLE IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC OTHER THAN ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. OTHERWISE... AN
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM TX NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY... THEN ITS SOUTHERN END ERODES WHILE
SURFACE PRESSURES RISE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY... WITH RIDGING
SOUTHWARD INTO NC. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ESPECIALLY EAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A
HEALTHY 70-80 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THURSDAY AS MINOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE CAROLINAS... BUT THE MODELED MOISTURE
APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD.
THEN WE AWAIT THE NEXT POTENT VORTICITY MAX PROJECTED TO DIVE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FURTHER AMPLIFY THE EASTERN NOAM
TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH A MOISTURE-STARVED POLAR
FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND PASSING THROUGH NC THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF LATER GFS RUNS AGREE WITH THE
00Z/23 RUN WITH ITS INTENSE VORTICITY MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY... WHICH COULD MEAN A LOW-QPF BUT WINDY FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT LATE-PERIOD TEMPS AT THIS TIME. -GIH

AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. TEMP/DEWPOINTS SPREADS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR TAF AREA
WIDE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG...CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN.
BROKEN CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITY. WITH LOSE OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 23Z CLOUDS BECOME
SCATTERED AT 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 MPH AFTER 15Z WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. -RHJ

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...BADGETT





[storms in NC]

here is a 5 day run.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rjava.html

[skufful]

here is a 5 day run.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hrjava.htm

Need to add the "L" to the end.

[hurricanetrack]

Don't know if it has been mentioned, but even the GFDL when run on 96L is showing the GFS system late in the run as a closed 1008 mb low heading towards the WNW at around 15N and 52W. The GFS has been very, very consistent with its cyclogenesis of this system- where it goes, if indeed it does develop, is still in question, but the GFS is really "honking" its development.

[hial2]

Don't know if it has been mentioned, but even the GFDL when run on 96L is showing the GFS system late in the run as a closed 1008 mb low heading towards the WNW at around 15N and 52W. The GFS has been very, very consistent with its cyclogenesis of this system- where it goes, if indeed it does develop, is still in question, but the GFS is really "honking" its development.

I read in this forum say that when a model is focused on a system, there is a tendency for "ghost" development to show elsewhere in the model map..Whether this is an accurate statement or not, I do not know..

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is rolling now.So far the same scenario as the past runs.Let's see as the run goes ahead what it shows.

18z GFS at 120 Hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 144 Hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 156 Hours

[wxman57]

:uarrow: That's what I don't get... Just because you post an image of the Current Steering layer doesn't mean it will look like that in 3-4 days.

I think you're quite right, SouthFloridaWx. That big cold front and upper trof moving off the east U.S. coast in the near future will displace the ridge off the east U.S. Coast eastward and probalby cut off the early recurve options for waves. There is still a significant risk of hurricane activity along the east U.S. Coast and even across the Gulf, though the southern and eastern Gulf would be most threatened this late in the season.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 240 Hours

Oh boy,it's comming towards Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

18z GFS is now complete.No U.S landfall,but the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico are threatened by it.

[OURAGAN]

It'coming to Guadeloupe before.
Do you thin GFS can be right?

[wxman57]

It'coming to Guadeloupe before.
Do you thin GFS can be right?

I can guarantee you that the GFS will be correct. At least, one of the runs will be correct. It's coming up with a different solution every 6 hours. The hard part is determining WHICH run will be correct.

[HUC]

Wait and see,the system is not yet born!!!It's the ons south of the CV islands???
At the present time,some thunder here in Gpe with the wave that seems to gained convection...

[perk]

:uarrow: That's what I don't get... Just because you post an image of the Current Steering layer doesn't mean it will look like that in 3-4 days.

I think you're quite right, SouthFloridaWx. That big cold front and upper trof moving off the east U.S. coast in the near future will displace the ridge off the east U.S. Coast eastward and probalby cut off the early recurve options for waves. There is still a significant risk of hurricane activity along the east U.S. Coast and even across the Gulf, though the southern and eastern Gulf would be most threatened this late in the season.

That's why i never bust open my supplies until the season ends.