Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[wxman57]

I think this picture may show 96L's structure better. There is a broad, elongated area of low pressure extending from just north of 14N to 19N. In this area of low pressure I can see two vortices, one near 14.4N/40.9W and a second up neaer 18N/40W. The southern low is what the NHC is running the model data on, but its convection is diminishing and it appears to be rotating around the broader low center.

It's the 2nd low farther north where the convection is concentrating and increasing. That's where development would most likely occur. Most of the low is already north of the islands of the eastern Caribbean, so it's not going to be a threat to those islands. Will likely recurve east of 60W. May not have time to become a hurricane before it goes ET and/or moves over cooler water. These large multi-vortex systems take a while to develop, generally.

[wxman57]

And here are the 12Z models. Looks straightforward. Out to sea.

[Recurve]

WXMAN, thanks for staying all over this one. Great graphics and analyses.

Does anyone foresee a chance of the ridge filling back in before this gets up to 30N, assuming it develops?

[brunota2003]

TCFA has been issued for this area!!!

1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 14.0N 42.0W TO 19.0N 46.0W WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. 2. A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14.0N 42.0W HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE LAST 48
HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECASTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE LOW CENTER PRODUCING
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 81F
(27C). SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IS NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REIS­
SUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 241300Z SEP 06.//
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 241209Z.//

[brunota2003]

why is it quiet? normally this would be buzzing with activity...Earth to Car 54, come in Car 54...Car 54 where are you? New TCFA and no one picked up on it?

[craptacular]

Looks like they agree with wxman57 now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

23/1745 UTC 18.2N 41.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
23/1045 UTC 14.9N 42.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Brent]

why is it quiet? normally this would be buzzing with activity...Earth to Car 54, come in Car 54...Car 54 where are you? New TCFA and no one picked up on it?

It's because it's a fish. Fish are boring. I haven't even looked at this wave for more than a few seconds at all.

[Opal storm]

why is it quiet? normally this would be buzzing with activity...Earth to Car 54, come in Car 54...Car 54 where are you? New TCFA and no one picked up on it?

It's because it's a fish. Fish are boring. I haven't even looked at this wave for more than a few seconds at all.

Would you rather be without power for 2 weeks? Enjoy the fishes,it's what we wished for this season,right?

[Weatherfreak000]

I certainly haven't been wishing for a season like this...no doubt about that lol.

But i'm happy for the lack of loss of property and life.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a LLC at 19 north/43.5 west. It looks pretty well organized...With convection wraping around it....I expect this to slowlly become a td over the next 24-36 hours....Maybe a tropical storm. Looks pretty good. A northwest then northward track as the front/weakness...That is Helene pushes it out.-

[hial2]

[quote="Weatherfreak000"]I certainly haven't been wishing for a season like this...no doubt about that lol.

Although you have the right to say as you please, I find that statement shocking coming from a Louisiana resident..I thought that after K and R, people would be happy with the hurricane season thus far..
I guess I was wrong

[Weatherfreak000]

I certainly haven't been wishing for a season like this...no doubt about that lol.

Although you have the right to say as you please, I find that statement shocking coming from a Louisiana resident..I thought that after K and R, people would be happy with the hurricane season thus far..
I guess I was wrong

You misunderstand me, i'm just referring to the quantity of systems not intensity or landfall, that is the part that makes me bored.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We are here to talk about cyclones, no one has said they went to see another 2005. But if there is one we will be tracking it. Also this thread is to discussion 96l, what is your thinking of it?

[Weatherfreak000]

We are here to talk about cyclones, no one has said they went to see another 2005. But if there is one we will be tracking it. Also this thread is to discussion 96l, what is your thinking of it?

It's pretty obvious, it looks broad and disorganized. However conditions are favorable enough for the formation of TD #9 and the further intensification into TS Issac over the next few days.


Then it will likely take the obvious track recurving out to sea possibly becoming a Hurricane likely peaking out as a Category Two storm.

[Thunder44]

It looks to me like a more defined low-level center is consolidating near 18N and 42W. The little center to the south earlier seems to be mid-level now and moving towards the main center. A North to NW track for the next few days looks likely to me.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Helene...located about 945 miles west of the Azores Islands.
A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure
area is located about 1050 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.

The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
become a little better organized this afternoon...and slow
development of this system is possible over the next couple of days
as it moves toward the north-northwest around 10 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.
$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Beven

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical

[cycloneye]

23/2345 UTC 18.9N 43.3W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

Making some progress, Luis, making some progress!!!

[HURAKAN]

Let see if we can have fishy Isaac before September ends!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on September 23, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Helene...located about 795 miles west of the Azores Islands.

A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure
area is located about 1125 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde
Islands. This system shows signs of organization...and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves
toward the north-northwest around 10 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.

Forecaster Mainelli/Beven