Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[SWFLA_CANE]

At least today GFS has been consistent with it missing the US. Looks like if it verifies the islands won't be so lucky.

[SouthFloridawx]

:uarrow: That's what I don't get... Just because you post an image of the Current Steering layer doesn't mean it will look like that in 3-4 days.

I think you're quite right, SouthFloridaWx. That big cold front and upper trof moving off the east U.S. coast in the near future will displace the ridge off the east U.S. Coast eastward and probalby cut off the early recurve options for waves. There is still a significant risk of hurricane activity along the east U.S. Coast and even across the Gulf, though the southern and eastern Gulf would be most threatened this late in the season.

This is why I say that timing is everything as far as the point of development for waves. If the trough off the east coast forces the ridge eastward this is going to keep that wave that gfs is developing at a lower latitude. It's probably more likely that there may be a chance for the islands to get hit from this one. Well, pending it develops period. GFS has been pretty consistent about it. We all know not to trust the models after 5 or 6 days but, we can see from the long range a fairly persistent troughing is evident so timing will be key.

[hurricanetrack]

Here is the 18Z GFDL for 96L. It dissipates 96L in about 42 hours- BUT look at what it does with the "GFS" system:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Not sure how much stock to put in to this, but hey, it shows quite a nice system there approaching the islands. Something to watch indeed.

[cycloneye]

00:00z Full Disk Image

From what area of convection is going to be the one GFS and GFDL develop? I say the area SE of the CV islands.

[WeatherEmperor]

00:00z Full Disk Image

From what area of convection is going to be the one GFS and GFDL develop? I say the area SE of the CV islands.

I agree Luis. That area looks most suspect to me right now.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

Metsat 8 has been fixed so here is the latest pic from the Eastern Atlantic.

[wxmann_91]

IMO there are two options for this wave...

1) It will strengthen and impact the islands, then recurve out to sea (maybe affecting Bermuda or Canada). Like Luis/Marilyn of 1995 and Hortense of 1996.

2) It will remain weak and go without fanfare until entering the Caribbean. It will miss the East Coast trough connection, and under a powerful ridge, be steered westward into Central America. Like Fifi 1974 or Joan 1988.

The synoptic pattern is fairly easy this go-around (massive trough will dig along the east coast), so although it is early, forecast confidence is fairly high.

[Derek Ortt]

or the GFS is totally out top lunch on the 15 day track.

It is a mathematical IMPOSSIBILITY to have any sort of accuracy that far off due to simple rounding error in solving the partial differential equations numerically

[Sanibel]

The ridge isn't there this year.

[boca]

I believe in climatology the system just coming off of Africa can probably traverse the Atlantic to the NE Caribbean Islands, But wouldn't get farther westward than that. My reasoning is because of troughs continuing to move eastward off the east coast and turning these systems northward at 70W instead of 60W which has been the case this year. If a system made it to the SE coast this time of year I'd be shocked. I'm looking into the Western Caribbean and Gulf for activity not the Atlantic this time of year.

[Hyperstorm]

00:00z Full Disk Image

From what area of convection is going to be the one GFS and GFDL develop? I say the area SE of the CV islands.

Yes, Cycloneye. The system the GFS is developing is the one SE of the Cape Verde islands and not the one to the SW. I was wrong this morning as there was basically not much to talk about in that area.

This evening, however, you can definitely see a cyclonic spin on satellite imagery near 9N 21W. I think this system has excellent potential for development into Joyce by next week based on favorable upper-level conditions, warm SSTs, and good hint of rotation on satellite imagery. There is also the help of a large band of energy just to the south of the possible center, which will fuel it as it heads westward. Very classic for development.

Tomorrow morning we should see more consolidation...

[Hyperstorm]

Deep convection ready to explode over the cyclonic spin tonight:



Make no mistake about it...this is the system to watch during the next week....

[WeatherEmperor]

Quick question. Many are saying that it would be very very very unlikely for a cape verde system to traverse the Atlantic at this time of year, and impact the US east coast. I feel the same way. BUT, what would happen if this system were to stay far enough south and enter the Caribbean. Wouldnt all the troughing off the US east coast sort of bring this system up and potentially impact the southeastern gulf? Can anybody please help to explain this to me?

<RICKY>

[WeatherEmperor]

Goes to show how crazy the GFS can be from run to run. For 7 consecutive runs, the GFS developed this wave and showed it impacting the islands. So far in the 00Z run, this system doesnt even make it past 40W. In fact, the GFS even turns it to the NE and begins to dissipate it at that point. So far out to 162 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

<RICKY>

[hurricanetrack]

Yep. Strange run indeed. Perhaps something was off this time or it is the start of a new trend- one towards less development out of this system. Ugh. The tropics are playing games with us....well, not really, but you all get the point. It's not easy this year trying to figure out what is going to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS is supposed to change like this beyond 5 days, for reasons I stated earlier.

There seems to be WAY too much emphasis on these 7-15 day forecasts here, even though it is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to have any type of accuracy

[SouthFloridawx]

If the system develops it may just be a fluke on part of GFS. Looking at the 500mb ridge it's not broken down trough the period of time I posted below. I would say that a westward movement of the low latitude system is probably more likely. Unless it gets stuck in weak steering currents.

Ridge at 72 Hours.


Ridge at 96 Hours


Ridge at 144 Hours



Ridge at 168 Hours

[wxmann_91]

the GFS is supposed to change like this beyond 5 days, for reasons I stated earlier.

There seems to be WAY too much emphasis on these 7-15 day forecasts here, even though it is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to have any type of accuracy

You just realized that?

But seriously, guys, Derek's really right. Anything beyond a week on any model, ESPECIALLY if there isn't continuity, is basically a crapshoot. Not saying it is impossible to have some type of accuracy, as there have been instances where the GFS was right from 10 days out (on the general synoptic level), but it's quite rare.

[curtadams]

Goes to show how crazy the GFS can be from run to run. For 7 consecutive runs, the GFS developed this wave and showed it impacting the islands. So far in the 00Z run, this system doesnt even make it past 40W. In fact, the GFS even turns it to the NE and begins to dissipate it at that point. So far out to 162 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That should tell you to pretty much ignore the GFS on this prediction. All the models have their quirks, and one of the GFS's is that it loves to spin up these fantasy systems with weird behavior (moving S or E, abrupt evaporation) out of the monsoonal trough. They never happen.

[Thunder44]

QS pass shows this wave has surface circulation with it. Perhaps elongated or broad:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png