Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[cycloneye]

LSU Image

Does not look bad.

[cycloneye]

QS pass shows this wave has surface circulation with it. Perhaps elongated or broad:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

At 8n-22w.

[Hyperstorm]

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, this system should be an invest sometime today. After that, it is quite likely it will continue organizing and a tropical depression could form as early as tomorrow, believe it or not. There is a major increase in thunderstorm activity ongoing as we speak and with a well-defined circulation showing up on Quikscat, it looks like this is a go.

If this continues, this could become a named storm before our Invest 96L. In that case, this would be the usually dreaded "I" storm.

Who said 2006 was over?

[OURAGAN]

I agree with you, it seems better than 96l.
Spiral banding are forming.
http://maps.weather.com/images/sat/tropsat_720x486.jpg

I remember Hurricane INEZ in Guadeloupe on September 27 in 1966.

[cycloneye]

SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 21W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-29W AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 8W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1058.shtml?

8 AM Discussion.Above is paragrafh from the ITCZ area.However no introduction by TPC of this area as a Tropical Wave.And no mention of that quickScat.

[OURAGAN]

Ther are waiting a little bit, this system is in the far eastern atlantic at low latitude, convection is on the increase, this system could be a thread for the lesser antilles.

[caneman]

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, this system should be an invest sometime today. After that, it is quite likely it will continue organizing and a tropical depression could form as early as tomorrow, believe it or not. There is a major increase in thunderstorm activity ongoing as we speak and with a well-defined circulation showing up on Quikscat, it looks like this is a go.

If this continues, this could become a named storm before our Invest 96L. In that case, this would be the usually dreaded "I" storm.

Who said 2006 was over?

This may in fact be why the GFS has it turning North and East as opposed to previous run. I'm thinking they are picking up on A quick developer and see it as more apt to get pulled Poleward

[Hyperstorm]

Most of the available models are forecasting a ridge to build and strengthen in the eastern and central Atlantic over the next few days. As a matter of fact, there is no major troughiness in the region at the present time. This will drive any developing system westward. However, don't forget we have 96L near 40W. This will be a player.

The future of (likely) 97L will depend on how fast 96L moves NW. If it stays in slow mode or nearly stationary, 97L will decidedly follow on its heels. Remember that these developing systems create a weakness in the synoptic pattern. If 96L moves toward the NW at a steady pace, there is nothing but a generally westward movement expected for a while with future 97L.

It will all come to timing as always...

[Hyperstorm]

Looking at the latest pattern across the Atlantic...It looks like Helene is in some sort of way helping 96L stay in weak steering currents at this time. This is causing 96L to be a very slow mover. As Helene reaches the Azores and beyond, a ridge to west of it will start strengthening and be in a position to drive 96L to the WNW for a while at a faster forward speed. The trough over the eastern United States should be the kicker of 96L and will drive it to the north in a few days.

It'll be interesting to see how fast it pushes away from the tropics...

[caneman]

Well this would not bode well for it then. From the 8:00 discussion. 96L is getting sheard though so maybe it stays weak enough to not pull this system /North

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N43W NEAR STATIONARY. LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS SW OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
18N40W-23N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 38W FROM 17N-23N.

[caneman]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z GFDL. Looks to be going NW At end run.

[Hyperstorm]

The system off Africa is at a very low latitude. That means it needs greater forcing to drive it northward away from the tropics.

With the current pattern, 97L should move westward for the next 24 hours, with a move toward the WNW and NW due to the weakness which is 96L. After 96L picks up speed, it should leave 97L behind as a strengthening ridge to the north takes charge. Regardless of where 97L ends up, it will have to move back westward for a while. Depending on how far south/north it is, it will mean if there will be any threat to the Lesser Antilles.

Shouldn't be a hard forecast for the NHC once it is classified. Again, timing will be key.

[OURAGAN]

Here is what i see:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest Metsat-8 image of the area South of the Cape Verde Islands.

[hial2]

After examining all available information I could gather, I now feel (brave?) confident enough to say this: Nothing forming east of 50w will affect the continental US or even the Caribbean islands..The next spot for possible development,if any, in the near future should be from the BOC to the NW area of the Caribe..IMO, three weeks to go before we shut down this hurricane season...
Let's see how correct I am..This is my first assertion EVER

[Fego]

From NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 AM AST SUN SEP 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAMAICA ENE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
JUST NORTH OF PR AND CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL ATLC SE OF DEPARTING
HELENE...WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL UPPER TROF ROTATING NW THROUGH THE
E CARIB AND BEGINNING TO MERGE OR REINFORCE TUTT SEGMENT IN
CENTRAL CARIB. DEEP LAYERED HIGH ACROSS W ATLC. AN AEW IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE SE CARIB FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 64W...NNE TO
THE CENTRAL LEEWARDS. THIS WAVE LEFT AFRICA ON THE 14-15TH AND WAS
STRONGLY STRETCHED AND SHEARED N TO S WHILE EXITING AWAY FROM THE
CONTINENT...WITH SOUTHERN PORTION MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS ATLC WITH
SIGNAL LARGELY S OF 16N. MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL SE FLOW WILL GUIDE
THIS WAVE NW NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND LARGE AEW IS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC...WITH ALL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWING A
NEGATIVE SSW TO NNE TILT/ELONGATION OF THE LLVL CIRCULATION. THE
NORTHERN VORT HAS ATTEMPTED TO SPIN UP THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND
NHC HAS BEEN RUNNING HURRICANE GUIDANCE ON A LLVL CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE...BUT DEEP LAYERED SSW SHEAR SEEMS
TO BE INHIBITING SUSTAINED OR INCREASED CONVECTIVE GROWTH. SAL HAS
ALSO BEEN A NEGATING FACTOR IN W AND SW QUADS THROUGHOUT THE PAST
WEEK. WIND ENVELOPE OF THIS FEATURE MOVING WNW PAST 12-24 HOURS. A
THIRD AEW IS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG ABOUT 22-23W WITH STLT
IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW
INVOF 8N 22W.

[Sanibel]

Hey folks, pay attention to what is happening in the CV belt right now.

A curved wave has exited Africa with what looks like a west-guiding ridge building in the Atlantic.

We could have one sneaking up on us here totally unexpected.

Unexpected late start to the low-track season?

[Stormcenter]

Hey folks, pay attention to what is happening in the CV belt right now.

A curved wave has exited Africa with what looks like a west-guiding ridge building in the Atlantic.

We could have one sneaking up on us here totally unexpected.

Unexpected late start to the low-track season?

Not in my opinion.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ON THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG 22W SOUTH
OF 13N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE DATA AND UPPER AIR.
SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT AT LOW LEVELS. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
22W-27W.

2:05pm Discussion

[cycloneye]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

This is the 12z GFDL animation of 96L but has also the wave we are watching.Notice at the end of the loop how it bends more west.