A Tiny Shred of Potential at the BOC?

southerngale · #1 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:20 am

ABNT20 KNHC 171514
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY...
AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

mf_dolphin · #2 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:22 am

I saw that as well. Not totally dead yet but it's definitely on life support right now :-)

#3 Postby **BreinLa** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:26 am

Okay guys I get nervous when i see BOC lol What's the shear like there I haven't looked at the maps yet today?

southerngale · #4 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:29 am

There's not much shear in the BOC but there's a good bit of shear in the rest of the GOM.

lol Marshall...I agree. (but don't pull the plug)

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:29 am

My case in point. We still have a system there and about 12 hours ago there was evidence of a spin over Belize. This circulate certainly certainly has a chance over the warm sea surface temperatures of the Bay of Campeche.

The upper level wind shear isn't as low as it could be. The latest values are around 30 knots in the eastern Bay of Campeche and basically expected to stay about the same or increase a tad. However, they were forecast to decrease and they increased in the last day or two over the western Caribbean, southwest Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Bay of Campeche, as well.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 11:34 am

I found the TWO interesting also. Many of the models have hinted at a possible "redevelopment" in the BOC or W GOM after a lot of wandering, including into the EPAC and back on some. To most it is not even recognizable in the models, you really have to be looking for it(-removed-??)and have a somewhat trained eye for it(from too much model watching). I will say that for the time being it is VERY DOUBTFUL that anything will happen. The trough and attendant stationary front in LA, SE and SC TX and the NW GOM will take whatever might happen, if anything does and move it NE into the the N GOM coast near NO or the MS coast, imo. I am not holding my breath for this though!

#7 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 12:27 pm

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The CMC 12Z still wants to form something down in the BOC in 72 hours. It's not been good with intensity, but it's been very good sensing tropical moisture so far this year. Yesterday's "crack pipe" run brought a 998 into SW LA. The 00z model backed off a bit on that. But today's 12Z again closes off a low in the Western Gulf at 72 hours. Check it out FWIW. I don't think there is that much development potential, but there's probably going to be something down there resulting from the former 92L and any western moving energy from the former TD #2 becoming entrained.

Steve

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 12:29 pm

Well the way this season has been so far nothing surprises me anymore so I am on the two sides it may develop as divergence is there but shear will not be favorable as a trough is in the north GOM so let's watch this thing evolve and wait to see if something will happen.

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 12:30 pm

Ok - can someone please explain divergence to me?

I know what shear is and usually its the killer of most systems.

Patricia

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 12:37 pm

Patricia, upper level divergence is the opposite of upper level convergence.

Convergence is the coming together of wind and divergence is wind moving in opposite directions. The way I understand it is when a high pressure aloft develops when upper level divergence values are positive and upper level divergence is occurring when the values are negative.

#11 Postby **bfez1** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 2:46 pm

Hope, their is always hope.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 2:47 pm

I agree with david..very slim chances of anything developing with the shear and shortwave!!! :roll:

But I suppose anything is possible at this rate :wink:

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 2:58 pm

Ok - can someone please explain divergence to me?

In addition to what CF said, divergence is caused by lower vorticity (or, more"spin"). It pulls air upward from the surface, thus prvoiding a lifting mechanism for the dominant air column. This can spark and/or sustain a surface low pressure. Such a low, however, is often cold core in nature. To get a warm core low you need localized heating from air below, not upper level motion. Convergence is the exact opposite; it is caused by increased vorticity, which can support a low level high pressure and is often associated with sinking air.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 3:21 pm

As for this "system" (I like to call things like this void nothingness, but that's just me), tropical development is highly unlikely. Although there is a small region of low shear in the southern BOC, the large scale GOM shear pattern is not conducive at all. Chances are that whatever enters the BOC will eventually get absorbed by the shortwave trough to the north.

ColdFront77 · #15 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 3:27 pm

Sorry for not going more in depth with my explanation Rob, Patricia and all. I tried to get all that was on my mind about upper air divergence at the moment I was responding to the post(s).

At the moment of typing and posting our message we may miss something. If it happens to me, it can happen to all of us.

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 4:19 pm

Your posts are always very informative and interesting TOM!!!

Lindaloo · #17 Postby **Lindaloo** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 4:21 pm

I agree Rainband! Tom is very informative in his posts. Last season he was very accurate in his storm tracks. Good job Tom!! And keep up the good work.

southerngale · #18 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 4:44 pm

Shred of potential still there :roll:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

ColdFront77 · #19 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 6:24 pm

I appreciate it, Jonathan and Linda.

I am glad you consider my opinion of last years tropical systems good, Linda.

I haven't given up on this systems potential.

Rainband · #20 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 17, 2003 6:54 pm

I haven't either form the last sat I saw..you can see the shear subsiding in the BOC by the radar.... and the clouds being blown ene north of the area(BOC).I say this one has something we may wanna watch...If I am wrong..I'll eat Crow like everyone else so far this year!!!! :lol:

A Tiny Shred of Potential at the BOC?

A Tiny Shred of Potential at the BOC?

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