NOGAPS honkin' on possible development in SW Carrib

CourierPR · #21 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:50 am

The mass appears to be lifting north. If that is the case then it may not head into Central America.

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:02 pm

true but the cloud tops are warming also. We need to see if it persists

TheRingo · #23 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:26 pm

diurnal minimum is killing it...
should have a better idea in the a.m.

TheRingo · #24 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:37 pm

Wonder what will happen when this tropical wave enters into the mix.

KatDaddy · #25 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:01 pm

Excerpt from Monday HPC Disc:

WESTERN CARIBBEAN MID TO LATE PERIOD...
THE MODELS SHOW A LOWERING OF PRESSURES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE
NOGAPS CURRENTLY ATTEMPTS A TROPICAL-TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. CLIMATOLOGY IS ON ITS SIDE...AS WE ARE ENTERING OCTOBER WHEN
ACTIVITY SHIFTS BACK TOWARDS THE REGION. THE MANUAL PROGS SHOW
NOTHING BUT BROAD LOW PRESSURE...FOR THE TIME BEING.

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:20 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

The 12z NOGAPS shows the SW Caribbean area but very weak.Not as strong as the 00z run.

'CaneFreak · #27 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:25 pm

The 12z Canadian is also now picking up our little system. Though it remains weak, it does show the system moving into the BOC....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#28 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:47 pm

Through the Yucatan into the BOC.

ronjon · #29 Postby **ronjon** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:48 am

The 9/26 00Z NOGAPs intensifies a tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Straits at 132 hrs. This is the 3rd run in a row showing this feature. So far, no other global model has picked up on it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

#30 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:40 am

ronjon wrote:The 9/26 00Z NOGAPs intensifies a tropical cyclone in the Yucatan Straits at 132 hrs. This is the 3rd run in a row showing this feature. So far, no other global model has picked up on it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

It also lifts it northward toward the Yuc. Straits which is not good.

#31 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:28 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Very strong directional winds just N of the system.

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1108 40.8 kts ENE ( 72 deg true )

#32 Postby **drezee** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:33 am

NOGAPS loses the system at 144

DESTRUCTION5 · #33 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:41 am

NOGAPS has been great all year and I am starting to see where its getting its WC Idea...I can see some pretty nice LL convergence going on there..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

caneman · #34 Postby **caneman** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:46 am

drezee wrote:NOGAPS loses the system at 144

I don't think it loses it. It is an undefined grid. There are actually a few more in mid run. Not sure why.

#35 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:13 am

Persistent area of convection near the Nogaps initializing area, we may have something brewing IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

TheRingo · #36 Postby **TheRingo** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:54 am

Still see upper level circulation:

#37 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:26 pm

I think we should give Kudos to NOGAPS yet again. Things are looking very ominous down there. I suspect we will have an invest with this one given climatology and the synoptic pattern we are in:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

stormchazer · #38 Postby **stormchazer** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:05 pm

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Appears that the NHC is not impressed.

caneman · #39 Postby **caneman** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:44 pm

stormchazer wrote:A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Appears that the NHC is not impressed.

Anyone know why this area isn't favorable for development? Wind Shear? What is the forecast for next day or two? Shear charts anyone?

#40 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:48 pm

Should become a little more favorable over the next day.

NOGAPS honkin' on possible development in SW Carrib

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