What If Rita Hit South of Houston/Galveston

[Ptarmigan]

Since this is the anniversary of Hurricane Rita, I wonder what happened if Rita made landfall on Freeport instead and it was either a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

[stormcrow]

They'd would have been hiring new insurance adjusters as they climbed the Texas banks of the Rio Grande.

[Deputy Van Halen]

The nation's economy would be in a deep recession right now, because of the massive damage and because of the loss of oil refining capability. ($8 a gallon gas, anyone?). And I'd be working somewhere on the mainland instead of on Galveston Island, and trying to decide what to do with the vacant lot where my house once stood.

[LaBreeze]

Count your blessing and consider yourself lucky Deputy Van Halen. Some of us were faced with that empty lot you mentioned - it was our home.

[KatDaddy]

Very scary thoughts indeed. I would be starting life over like many of our friends along the SW LA Coast have been doing. Very sad to still see all the destruction a year later.

[george_r_1961]

The nation's economy would be in a deep recession right now, because of the massive damage and because of the loss of oil refining capability. ($8 a gallon gas, anyone?). And I'd be working somewhere on the mainland instead of on Galveston Island, and trying to decide what to do with the vacant lot where my house once stood.

Thats assuming u could get gas at all. The oil rigs AND the refineries would have been wiped out. On top of the injuries and fatalities( I shudder to think how many there would have been) there would have been thousands, perhaps tens of thousands, out of work for a long time. Not just oil related jobs either.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The pine trees all around me probably would not still be standing.

[Jim Cantore]

Have you seen the pictures of Holly Beach Louisiana? That would be galveston.

[Stratosphere747]

Have you seen the pictures of Holly Beach Louisiana? That would be galveston.

This is a totally false statement, plain and simple!!

[MiamiensisWx]

This is a totally false statement, plain and simple!!

I believe he means that's what Galveston would look like had Rita made landfall further southwest at the right angle.

[Stratosphere747]

This is a totally false statement, plain and simple!!

I believe he means that's what Galveston would look like had Rita made landfall further southwest at the right angle.

Uh...It still would not look like Holly Beach. It is an irrational statement to say that Galveston would look like HB, no matter the angle.

West Beach, maybe. Galveston proper, NO.

[Derek Ortt]

Are we forgetting the 17 foot seawall at Galveston?

Galveston would not have been levelled, unless the wind itself did it, which would have required a 4 or a 5. Had Rita hit as a "marginal 3", there would have been severe damage, but not total destruction

[MiamiensisWx]

Are we forgetting the 17 foot seawall at Galveston?

Galveston would not have been levelled, unless the wind itself did it, which would have required a 4 or a 5. Had Rita hit as a "marginal 3", there would have been severe damage, but not total destruction

Good points, and I agree in terms of surge (i.e., not quite like Holly Beach). I was just translating Category 5's thoughts.

Other than that, surge damage would be likely be very severe to catastrophic locally but over a wide area.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The pictures of the area where Katrina hit, shows that a cat3 can be very powerful. Even to the point that what I once thought a cat5 only could do. Soild homes,Buildings leveled in laying all over the place. What katrina, in to a lesser degree rita did is breath taking.

[Normandy]

http://3dnature.com/anim/Galveston_TX-20ft-high.mp4

I completely disagree.
If Rita had hit Galveston, it would have been severely impacted, not like Holly Beach was, but Galveston would have for sure went under water. This animation shows what a 20 foot storm surge would do to Galveston Island, and notice how water creeps in from behind the seawall before it is even toppled. What would happen in Galveson would be this:

The back portions of the island flood, the seawall starts to fail at keeping the water out, and once the water breaks the seawall, the entire island goes underwater.

Also, for people who have been to Galveston, the sea wall is just what it is, a wall. A katrina sized hurricane of Cat3 or higher would have no problem overtopping Galveston's seawall, and all that water would rush straight into the island, causing some pretty bad surge damage. To say the wind would be the only thing that could flatten Galveston is a bit iffy, just like saying Downtown Houston could never recieve any winds over 115 mph.

If a Cat4 or higher hits, you can kiss Galveston goodbye. It would be nearly wiped out imo. A 5? 1900 all over again.


BTW, speaking of 1900, I have always wondered why this storm was classified as a 4? Was there any pressure measurements (Even if they were low, Katrina and Rita showed us that pressure does not always relate to maximum windspeeds)? Im sure there where no wind measurements....so what really makes the Galveston hurricane a 4? Could it have been a low end 3 like Rita?

[Jim Cantore]

Are we forgetting the 17 foot seawall at Galveston?

Galveston would not have been levelled, unless the wind itself did it, which would have required a 4 or a 5. Had Rita hit as a "marginal 3", there would have been severe damage, but not total destruction

17? I didn't think it was that high.

Scratch my statement.

[Stratosphere747]

The problem with your assessment Normandy is that it has no relation to the question posed, which was -- "I wonder what happened if Rita made landfall on Freeport instead and it was either a Category 4 or 5 hurricane."

And to which I replied after Category 5's incorrect statement.

San Luis Pass to Galveston is a different story, and one we have beaten to death over the years.

[Jim Cantore]

Category 5's incorrect statement.

you've made that clear

One question, does the seawall run the length of the island?

[Stratosphere747]

Category 5's incorrect statement.

you've made that clear

One question, does the seawall run the length of the island?

Sorry about my abrasive attitude, but it is a pet peeve of mine when a blanket statement is made, especially in relation to the middle and upper coasts of Texas....

Here is a great site that explains a bit of the construction of the seawall and has probably some of the best historical photos you will find on the seawall.

http://www.gthcenter.org/exhibits/seawall/index.html

And no it does not run the entire length of the island. The west end is nothing more than a barrier island sitting in the GOM, much like Galveston was before the 1900 storm.

[Jim Cantore]

Maybe more places should build these things.

After seeing what Katrina did, I'd make it higher.