Article: Hurricane threat likely over (Texas)

[jasons2k]

Sept. 24, 2006, 11:37PM
Hurricane threat likely over
Hurricanes on the Texas coast after Sept. 24 are rare, but possible

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle

OK, it's safe to exhale. Probably.

Although hurricane season does not come to a close officially for nearly 10 more weeks, for all practical purposes the threat of a large storm ends today for Texas.

It may seem imprudent to tempt fate, but it's impossible to escape a singular fact: Historically, after this time of year, hurricanes strike the Lone Star State exceedingly rarely.

Since reliable records were first kept in 1867, the National Hurricane Center reports just four Texas hurricane landfalls after Sept. 24. Of the four, the most recent was Jerry, a minimal Category 1 hurricane that made landfall on Oct. 16, 1989, near Galveston.

That's one hurricane every 35 years. So, is it safe to signal an all-clear?

"I am not sure, with as strange as the weather patterns have been over the past several years, and the emotions of the public, that that would be a good term to use," said Jill Hasling, president of Houston's nonprofit Weather Research Center.

"The waters in the Gulf are still warm, so I am not sure if I would sound the all-clear yet."

Hasling has a point. Surface water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are as high as 88 degrees, as warm as the waters have been all year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

For the entire Atlantic basin, historically, hurricane season peaks around Sept. 10. Only by mid-October do forecasters say that the bulk of the season's activity typically ebbs. Texas, however, is subject to different weather patterns that tend to dampen the second half of hurricane season.

During the first half of the season, the Bermuda High, a semi-permanent high pressure center in the subtropical Atlantic, usually is quite strong, extending across the Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast, explained Chris Hebert, a forecaster at ImpactWeather, a private forecasting service based in Houston.

Tropical storms typically form south of the Bermuda High and move westward. They generally will turn northward upon a weakness in the high-pressure system. But such a weakness may not occur early in the season until the tropical storm or hurricane reaches the central or western Gulf of Mexico. If a storm never turns north, chances are it will hit Texas.

The Bermuda High, though, tends to weaken toward the end of hurricane season, allowing these storms to move northward earlier. That has been the case this year with hurricanes Florence, Gordon and Helene all sweeping northward before approaching the United States.

Additionally, by the third or fourth week of September, the prevailing weather patterns across the U.S. typically change, Hebert said. The Polar jet stream begins extending further south, allowing cold fronts to approach or enter the Gulf of Mexico. These fronts also buffer the storms from tropical systems.

From now on, to reach the Texas coast, a storm usually has to battle through two factors: a weakening Bermuda High and cool fronts that tend to push storms toward Florida or the northern Gulf Coast.

"It's not impossible for Texas to be hit by a hurricane after September, but it all comes down to the timing of the passage of autumn cold fronts," Hebert said.

Such fronts can be both friend and foe. The last major hurricane to strike near Houston, Alicia in 1983, formed at the tail end of an August cool front that moved over the warm Gulf of Mexico.

Still, Sept. 24 seems to be something of a magical date. It's when Rita came ashore last year, and also when the remnants of Hurricane Ivan moved into Texas in 2004.

And the only major hurricane that has struck Texas after Sept. 24 since reliable records were first kept was something of an oddball.

In 1949, a tropical storm formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean, crossing into the Bay of Campeche in early October. The storm continued northward and strengthened into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall near Freeport.

That could happen again, of course.

"Who knows?" Hasling said. After the record-setting 2005 hurricane season, nothing would surprise storm watchers.

[southerngale]

I certainly feel much better at this time of year. I'm ready for fall, and before long, I'll be doing my snow dance, hoping for some white stuff.

After Rita last year, I'm glad we didn't even have any threats. The stress alone would have been horrible for everyone over here. Rita recovery still dominates the news and is talked about everywhere you go, in some form or fashion.

[gatorcane]

The Polar jet stream begins extending further south, allowing cold fronts to approach or enter the Gulf of Mexico. These fronts also buffer the storms from tropical systems.

What does "buffer the storms from tropical systems" mean?

Should it not read:

"buffer the coast from tropical systems"

[wxman57]

Never mind...

[cycloneye]

jschlitz,A link is needed to have a source to that information you posted by copy and paste.There is a rule about that.

7. Third-party content. In an effort to prevent plagiarism, we require that any statistics, quotes, news articles, forecasts, and the like obtained from a third party to be posted on storm2k.org must be in the form of a brief quote that cites the original source and/or includes comments by the poster other than the quotation. If you are unsure then just post the link.
ALL POSTS containing copied and pasted material must contain
A. Every Post is to contain a citation of the source.
B. Your interpretation, reaction, or some comment that ADDS VALUE to the pasted information. We are not interested in long copy and paste threads alone.

[JonathanBelles]

jschlitz,A link is needed to have a source to that information you posted by copy and paste.There is a rule about that.

7. Third-party content. In an effort to prevent plagiarism, we require that any statistics, quotes, news articles, forecasts, and the like obtained from a third party to be posted on storm2k.org must be in the form of a brief quote that cites the original source and/or includes comments by the poster other than the quotation. If you are unsure then just post the link.
ALL POSTS containing copied and pasted material must contain
A. Every Post is to contain a citation of the source.
B. Your interpretation, reaction, or some comment that ADDS VALUE to the pasted information. We are not interested in long copy and paste threads alone.

the article was found here:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/met ... 11321.html

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Texas Hurricane Season Cancel Alert.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Fl should be getting ready IF a storm forms in the caribbean. I know during October these TC's recurve into the state.

[jasons2k]

jschlitz,A link is needed to have a source to that information you posted by copy and paste.There is a rule about that.

7. Third-party content. In an effort to prevent plagiarism, we require that any statistics, quotes, news articles, forecasts, and the like obtained from a third party to be posted on storm2k.org must be in the form of a brief quote that cites the original source and/or includes comments by the poster other than the quotation. If you are unsure then just post the link.
ALL POSTS containing copied and pasted material must contain
A. Every Post is to contain a citation of the source.
B. Your interpretation, reaction, or some comment that ADDS VALUE to the pasted information. We are not interested in long copy and paste threads alone.

the article was found here:

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/met ... 11321.html

Fact 789 - Thanks for tracking down the link for me.

FWIW: The rule is to cite it, not link it (linking is merely suggested when in doubt). Most newspaper links won't work anyway unless you are a subscriber.

I copied the article from an email that was sent to me so I didn't have the original link or the time to hunt it down. It was clearly cited (as evidenced by Fact's ability to find it) so I don't see why it was an issue.

[chadtm80]

jschlitz is not a "big issue".. Luis was just reminding everyone, not just you, that when things get posted like this it needs to be cited. As you said, as the rule reads a link isn't a MUST but citing it is. Also you said it was cited.. Well it was cited by another member. Luis was just simply pointing out that it is the poster who made the post responsibility to cite it.. It just saves everyone time and avoids confusion if is done properly. Again please don't feel like you were being reprimanded or called out in anyway, he was just passing along the rule/info like I as an admin have instructed him to do. Storm2k might as well be called the "show me site" because people don't believe it unless they see "proof" and then we have half the thread wasted with posts asking where the info came from and pulling away from the topic at hand.

Again.. No big problem or issue at all my friend.. He was just reminding everyone.

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

chad is right.What I did was posting the rule for view of the members for a reminder,not only for the author of the thread.

[chadtm80]

jschlitz after re reading your post you did in fact cite it.. Sorry I missed that. You followed the rules so no worries at all.. When at all possible it is best to post a link as well as someone is eventually going to ask for one.. But again, you did cite the article as the rules states.. Sorry for the mis understanding..

Nice read BTW.. Thanks.