Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, it does. I think we need another 72 hours for this to establish itself in the flow of things and get better organized. It is at quite a low latitude which would bode well for it coming farther west than other systems thus far this season. How far west is still quite the debate.

[OURAGAN]

Things are getting active, look-at inside African coast behind futur 97L:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Stormcenter]

If it was August 24th and not September 24 I would be worried about what was coming off of Africa but it's not. I know you guys want some CV action but I think the best you are going to get is a homegrown system maybe in early October and that may be a stretch. Just my opinion.

[caribepr]

Not all of us *guys* want anything at all from Africa! Well, I wouldn't mind some South African vino...

[Meso]

South African wha- ? :S

[jinftl]

vino is italian for 'wine'

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

GFDL 18Z continues developing a 1008mb low pressure area in the next 126 hours...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W AT 15KT.
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS SEEN. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

[hurricanetrack]

Slowly but surely it creeps along. I wonder where it will be when the favorable MJO shows up? Right now, it is subsidence city out there!

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm finding it hard to believe that GFS moves this area so slowly in it's runs.

As the high pushes east it should be enough to move it along.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[hurricanetrack]

One would think. It won't matter much until that green area of the upward motion pulse moves in to the Basin. Right now there is hardly a cloud in the sky over the western Atlantic and surrounding waters. Very clear.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS FROM
7N TO 8N ALONG 29W/30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.


8 AM Discussion.Hyperstorm,24 hours after you talked about invest 97L being up,still nothing yet.No low mentioned at discussion although there is evident turning.

[Hyperstorm]

Surprisingly, this wave did not do anything during the past 24 hours. In fact, the system became very disorganized late yesterday into early this morning. There seems to be some easterly shear, which disheveled the mid-upper level circulation from the surface circulation. I even doubt Quikscat will show a well-defined circulation on the next pass.

That being said, this morning we have seen (once again) a major burst of convection near the tropical wave axis just east of 30W. It's not very organized, but it is keeping this system from dissipating. About the only positive for development is that today's burst seems to be more concentrated than yesterday's, when there was a large band of moisture firing up to the south of the circulation. We'll have to wait and see how the current burst helps the system. If there is still a defined circulation underneath those developing thunderstorms, then it could become Invest 97L today. I don't see a tropical depression from this during the next 24 hours, however.

One thing is certain, the weaker it stays the longer it will traverse westward over the Tropical Atlantic...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Let's see if convections keeps consolidating throughout the day.

[Sanibel]

Already being drawn-up towards 96L.


If it forms it should clear the Antilles to the north.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to this Shear Tendency Analysis map, there are favorable upper level winds ahead if the system moves westward.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at this area on Satelite it doesn't appear to be drawing northward but, rather a large area moving steadily westward.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[boca]

A little fire in our guy down south around the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

A little fire in our guy down south around the center.

Convection has increased, lets see if this time it holds up...It is expected to encounter favorable upper level winds so lets see how it behaves as it travels westward...

[Evil Jeremy]

still not an invest?!?!?! by noon tommarow, i will be so shocked if this isnt an Invest by then.