W. Caribbean Blob

HurricaneHunter914 · #21 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:47 pm

If this does form, then S FL should prepare, because I beleive we are getting into the time when these TC's recurve into my hometown.

#22 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:05 pm

There seems to be some kind of circulation as evidenced by the vis loop. It's moving off to the NW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Nimbus · #23 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:05 pm

No kidding, a month from now is the 85th anniversary of the last big storm to hit the Tampa bay area.

October 25, 1921 the storm surge from a cat 3 split the barrier islands off the coast, and flooded Tampa bay with a 10 foot surge.

I'm feeling lucky though with this blob in the Carribean. :cheesy:

Typhoon_Willie · #24 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:06 pm

Any radars located in the region to look at? Looks like there may be some spin to the area.

#25 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:23 pm

Typhoon_Willie wrote:Any radars located in the region to look at? Looks like there may be some spin to the area.

Here you go, radar out of Panama.

http://www.pancanal.com/eng/radar/main.html

TheRingo · #26 Postby **TheRingo** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:30 pm

These high barbs showing some anti-cyclonic rotation.

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:19 pm

interesting, now lets see if the convection can come back tonight during the diurnal maximum

Sanibel · #28 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 7:20 pm

2006 eats another one.

There's a twist in there but it's at the mid-level.

#29 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:57 pm

As has been typical of 2006, blob cancel

:blowup:

#30 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:18 am

not so fast I guess. Looks like it is starting to get cranking again this morning and has gained signicant lattitude.

rockyman · #31 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:59 am

Spin right on coast of Nicaragua...based on early visibles

Sanibel · #32 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:06 am

Spin on Nicaraguan coast and into Nicaragua.

This had more to it than I expected. SW Caribbean could be coming to life.

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:56 am

there is definitely a spin. The question is will it get back over water. Where is it headed?

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:26 am

convection continues to fire this afternoon. More deep reds are showing up.

#35 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:42 am

It's not interacting with the tropical wave yet and NHC has removed the low and any discription of low level center in thier discussion. I wouldn't be too worried about it since it's not interacting with the wave yet. We'll wait to see what the 205 says.

It's such a small area today and it looks like it's having problems with shear.

Yep it's dealing with about 20-30 kts of shear right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It appears there is a fairly weak upper level trough/low to the north of it causing the shear. GFS expects this to hang around but, its so weak i'm not sure about that.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:40 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:It's not interacting with the tropical wave yet and NHC has removed the low and any discription of low level center in thier discussion. I wouldn't be too worried about it since it's not interacting with the wave yet. We'll wait to see what the 205 says.

It's such a small area today and it looks like it's having problems with shear.

Yep it's dealing with about 20-30 kts of shear right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It appears there is a fairly weak upper level trough/low to the north of it causing the shear. GFS expects this to hang around but, its so weak i'm not sure about that.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

it continue to blow up nicely today with deep reds now showing up again in the IR :eek:

TheRingo · #37 Postby **TheRingo** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:43 pm

1008 low is back .

boca · #38 Postby **boca** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:44 pm

It will probably end up moving west into the Yucatan or C America due to the steering currents down there.

#39 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:56 pm

Map depicts a low near 11N 77W w/o convection. The convection is near 15N 83W, near the Honduras/ Nicaragua coast, this appears to be a better chance for development. IMO

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:02 pm

boca wrote:It will probably end up moving west into the Yucatan or C America due to the steering currents down there.

Why, how about those strong troughs that keep digging down. I think a more NW movement is likely.

W. Caribbean Blob

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