CPAC - Tropical Depression 03-C

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:59 am

400 AM HST MON SEP 25 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

A trough within the ITCZ approximately 1400 miles southwest of Honolulu is generating an area of scattered thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are showing signs of improved organization, and slow development is possible within this area over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Wednesday morning.

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 10:17 am

400 AM HST TUE SEP 26 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

An area of thunderstorms associated with a weak tropical disturbance is about 690 miles southwest of Johnston island, or about 1500 miles west southwest of Honolulu. The disturbance has shown some signs of improved organization over the past 6 hours and further development may occur over the next day or so. We will continue to closely monitor this area.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday.

TD 3C or TD 19W??? Time will tell!!!

Coredesat · #3 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:50 am

Looks like it's organizing at a fairly rapid pace. I wouldn't be surprised to see it become 03C, but it doesn't have much time.

Coredesat · #4 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:42 pm

26/1800 UTC 12.3N 177.5W T1.5/1.5 95C

WmE · #5 Postby **WmE** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:56 pm

Yeah it's running out of time.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:25 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (CP032006) ON 20060926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060926 1800 060927 0600 060927 1800 060928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.1N 177.6W 11.7N 178.8W 12.4N 179.8E 13.1N 178.6E
BAMM 11.1N 177.6W 11.8N 179.4W 12.5N 178.7E 13.1N 177.0E

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060928 1800 060929 1800 060930 1800 061001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 177.4E 13.7N 174.5E 14.1N 171.5E 14.7N 169.3E
BAMM 13.5N 175.3E 13.7N 170.9E 14.3N 166.1E 15.1N 161.9E

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 177.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 176.8W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 175.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

TD 3-C here.Until it's official the title of thread will stay as it is now.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:29 pm

Another shot at "Kika," if not, then maybe "Bebinca!!!"

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:43 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL changed header to NONAME but again,storm2k always wait for the official word from NHC,but in this case from CPHC.

Cyclenall · #9 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:32 pm

That's good news. Hopefully it's fate will not be like TD2-C's or overwhelmed by the ITCZ if you will. The problem is it's just about to enter the Wpac so the CPHC won't have much time to "spend" with 3-C. That means no/less reading from forecaster Nash (the best).

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032006
2100 UTC TUE SEP 26 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060926/2100Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: THREE-C
NR: 001
PSN: N1112 W17748
MOV: WNW 04KT
C: 1008HPA
MAX WIND: 030KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 270600 N1130 W17830
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 271200 N1145 W17906
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 030KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 271800 N1200 W17942
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 030KT
NXT MSG: 20060927/0300Z

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:51 pm

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 am HST on September 26, 2006

...Third tropical depression forms in the central Pacific far
southwest of the Hawaiian islands...

at 1100 am HST...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression
Three-c was located near latitude 11.2 north...longitude 177.8
west or about 1490 miles west-southwest of Honolulu...Oahu and
about 675 miles west-southwest of Johnston Island.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 1100 am HST position...11.2 N...177.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center at 500 PM HST.

Forecaster Browning

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Tropical Depression Three-C Discussion Number 1

Statement as of 11:00 am HST on September 26, 2006

...Third tropical depression forms in the central Pacific far
southwest of the Hawaiian islands...
Several key pieces of data indicate that a tropical depression has
likely formed far southwest of the Hawaiian islands. Infrared
imagery overnight showed a large flareup of convection. Over the
last couple of hours...visible imagery has shown an area of low
level clouds clearly moving from west to east on the southwest side
of the mass of overnight convection. A recent Quikscat pass was
unfortunately ambiguous...with a generally open wave
depicted...however some northwesterly flags were evident to the
west of the consensus fix position. A tao buoy southwest of the
system...near 8n and 180...has shown light west winds over the last
12 hours...6 observations...so there appears to be enough evidence
to upgrade this system to a tropical depression.
With regard to track...available model guidance is clustered fairly
well...and the official track is generally a consensus of all
guidance. The depression is expected to track generally westward
or west...northwestward under a large mid level ridge near 32n.
Intensity is kept at depression through the forecast period. It
appears that significant westerly shear is affecting the
depression...and the low level circulation is likely just to the
west of the main mass of convection. Available model intensity
guidance is limited...but not indicating significant strengthening.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 26/2100z 11.2n 177.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 11.5n 178.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 12.0n 179.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 12.8n 178.5e 30 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 13.5n 176.5e 30 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 14.3n 171.5e 30 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 15.2n 166.0e 30 kt
120hr VT 01/1800z 16.3n 160.8e 30 kt

forecaster Browning

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:37 pm

TRACK:

Cyclenall · #13 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:59 pm

CPHC wrote:Intensity is kept at depression through the forecast period. It
appears that significant westerly shear is affecting the
depression...and the low level circulation is likely just to the
west of the main mass of convection. Available model intensity
guidance is limited...but not indicating significant strengthening.

Has there ever been a tropical cyclone in recorded history to stay at the exact same strength for 120 hours? They're saying there is significant shear over the system. I couldn't tell just by looking at the visibles and loops.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:46 pm

11 AM HST Discussion

Coredesat · #15 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 1:01 am

The latest GFDL run... :roflmao:

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE 03C

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 178.1 295./ 5.0
6 11.7 178.7 306./ 7.7
12 12.2 179.4 311./ 8.7
18 13.1 180.0 322./10.4
24 13.5 181.0 292./10.2
30 13.8 182.3 284./13.2
36 13.8 183.1 267./ 8.1
42 14.2 184.0 298./ 9.5
48 14.3 184.6 275./ 6.0
54 14.9 185.5 305./10.4
60 15.1 186.3 287./ 8.1
66 15.6 187.2 296./10.5
72 16.0 188.4 291./11.5
78 16.0 189.4 269./10.1
84 16.1 190.3 280./ 8.5
90 16.6 190.7 316./ 6.0
96 16.8 191.4 287./ 6.4
102 17.1 191.9 300./ 5.6
108 17.4 192.6 292./ 7.9
114 17.5 192.9 305./ 2.7
120 17.7 192.7 50./ 2.4
126 17.9 192.2 63./ 4.6

CPAC - Tropical Depression 03-C

CPAC - Tropical Depression 03-C

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