W. Caribbean Blob

[gatorcane]

I guess nobody else finds this area suspicious. It is hanging around pretty good today. Longer than it did yesterday.

I think we need to watch this as climalogy and the synoptic pattern we are in says so.

[Blown Away]

I guess nobody else finds this area suspicious. It is hanging around pretty good today. Longer than it did yesterday.
I think we need to watch this as climalogy and the synoptic pattern we are in says so.

Sure does appear suspicious, the Nogaps seemed to bring a low out from where the convection is located. Either were waisting our time or we'll have bragging rights when this develops. IMO, it will make it to an invest. Time will tell.

[Sanibel]

No LLC, but watching for persistance now.

Could be a shear feature. But climatology says watch it.

[gatorcane]

keeps getting larger folks - convection is definitely on the increase.

[caneman]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Whoa look at this blow up! Any one have link for shear for today and future.

[Buck]

Looking a bit better right now...

[gatorcane]

can we get a floater on it - I think we have business down there with this one.

[Blown Away]

I think people have given up on th season, that's why there are few posts. Maybe the NHC will make this a special feature in their discussion. This area of convection has been persistent.

[gatorcane]

I think people have given up on th season, that's why there are few posts. Maybe the NHC will make this a special feature in their discussion. This area of convection has been persistent.

Now through October are prime months for hits coming up from the Caribbean especially for South Florida but people don't understand that.

[x-y-no]

I guess nobody else finds this area suspicious. It is hanging around pretty good today. Longer than it did yesterday.

I think we need to watch this as climalogy and the synoptic pattern we are in says so.

Oh ... I'm definitely keeping an eye on it. The Nogaps scenario isn't at all unreasonable.

[gatorcane]

Look what nogaps has at 132 hours. Not very intense yet but somewhat concerning for Florida:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=132hr

[SouthFloridawx]

If that area can remain convective over the next 24-48 hours, I think it may have a shot. With an old frontal boundary to the north and a Tropical wave nearing the area, we may see more convection and more of a chance for development. With the ridge shifted Eastward in response to the trough it would have nowhere to go but, north.

Of course this is pending that this sytem can develop and there isn't too much shear for it to do so.

[gatorcane]

I would say at least a brief mention in the 5:30 TWO and if it persists more concentration on it at the 11:30

[hial2]

Look what nogaps has at 132 hours. Not very intense yet but somewhat concerning for Florida:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=132hr

Shouldn't that high prog to be on the north drive whatever forms to the west into Mexico, or even,gulp,Texas?

[caneman]

Look what nogaps has at 132 hours. Not very intense yet but somewhat concerning for Florida:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=132hr

That is an old run. The 12z now isn't showing anything

[gatorcane]

I see from the member list there is a bit more interest as of late as we all hope that whatever is trying to get going in the Western Caribbean goes poof because it will more than likely head North or Northwest.

[Thunder44]

403
ABNT20 KNHC 262100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[gatorcane]

5:30 TWO - lets it does get a mention as I would expect

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

[stormchazer]

5:30 TWO - lets it does get a mention as I would expect

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

NHC is not very concerned it would appear. There is always tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

if it persists over the next 6 hours and especially overnight - the NHC's tune will be different.