Next wave to watch...Will this be the one?

[fci]

I just don't see it from the satellite picture above to be very organized.
Looks pathetic when compared to 96L which isn't exactly a superstar either!

[Stormcenter]

Check out the beautiful front in the Gulf.

[sma10]

still not an invest?!?!?! by noon tommarow, i will be so shocked if this isnt an Invest by then.

Prepare to be shocked.

[StormTracker]

Nothing yet!!!

[Sanibel]

I don't see any LLC or circulation in that mid Atlantic wave.

[Sanibel]

Has anyone considered that the central Atlantic wave that is now hanging at low latitude will beat the recurve steering currents by laying low to the south and emerge into the Caribbean where it will develop?

This unexpected scenario could be unfolding before our eyes.

[SouthFloridawx]

Has anyone considered that the central Atlantic wave that is now hanging at low latitude will beat the recurve steering currents by laying low to the south and emerge into the Caribbean where it will develop?

This unexpected scenario could be unfolding before our eyes.

Well a couple of days ago I surmised that this thing has no where to go but, west. Now this is occuring.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
There is no development imminent but, Sanibel maybe you are correct I think this one will end up in the Caribbean and not move as slow as suggest by GFS. Here are a couple of scenarios with this area.


1. Remains weak and moves into the Caribbean where it Develops and gets pulled northward over DR/Haiti/Cuba and possibly into the Bahamas or even Florida. I am seeing a Ernesto like situation possible.

2. Doesn't develop

[StormTracker]

Yeah, I thought about this a.m! Because it's moving into more a favorable environment and it's just drifting with no spin, I think it just might be able to pull that off!

[cycloneye]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
18W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N...AS VERIFIED BY THE AVAILABLE
SURFACE/SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEARBY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW NOTED
WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Mark Sudduth,here is new wave with a low pressure.As the title of your thread says,will this be the one? But it's getting late for systems to develop that far east.

[StormTracker]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
18W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N...AS VERIFIED BY THE AVAILABLE
SURFACE/SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEARBY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW NOTED
WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Mark Sudduth,here is new wave with a low pressure.As the title of your thread says,will this be the one? But it's getting late for systems to develop that far east.

Are you giving up on the CV systems too CE??? I don't hear no fat lady singing, as a matter of fact, I don't hear any singing at all!!! I know, you've been doing this a lot longer than me (online anyway) but, I think we tend to forget about one thing on this forum(the main player of the game)!!! I'm eating chicken for dinner right now, but, if I have to try eating crow for the first time, I'll do it!!! I'm on the late start of the season bandwagon! I think we're gonna get a few surprises before the east Atlantic's fat lady opens her mouth!!!

[Stormcenter]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
18W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N...AS VERIFIED BY THE AVAILABLE
SURFACE/SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEARBY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW NOTED
WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Mark Sudduth,here is new wave with a low pressure.As the title of your thread says,will this be the one? But it's getting late for systems to develop that far east.

Are you giving up on the CV systems too CE??? I don't hear no fat lady singing, as a matter of fact, I don't hear any singing at all!!! I know, you've been doing this a lot longer than me (online anyway) but, I think we tend to forget about one thing on this forum(the main player of the game)!!! I'm eating chicken for dinner right now, but, if I have to try eating crow for the first time, I'll do it!!! I'm on the late start of the season bandwagon! I think we're gonna get a few surprises before the east Atlantic's fat lady opens her mouth!!!

Do I hear her clearing her voice?

[StormTracker]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG
18W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
1011MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N...AS VERIFIED BY THE AVAILABLE
SURFACE/SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEARBY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW NOTED
WITHIN 100NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

Mark Sudduth,here is new wave with a low pressure.As the title of your thread says,will this be the one? But it's getting late for systems to develop that far east.

Are you giving up on the CV systems too CE??? I don't hear no fat lady singing, as a matter of fact, I don't hear any singing at all!!! I know, you've been doing this a lot longer than me (online anyway) but, I think we tend to forget about one thing on this forum(the main player of the game)!!! I'm eating chicken for dinner right now, but, if I have to try eating crow for the first time, I'll do it!!! I'm on the late start of the season bandwagon! I think we're gonna get a few surprises before the east Atlantic's fat lady opens her mouth!!!

Do I hear her clearing her voice?

Is that what that annoying sound is???

[hial2]

BIG Ull diving south, right into the area in question, putting the final coffin nail into the CV season..the fat, thin and medium lady has sung the last notes of that season..(taps play)

[cycloneye]

Water Vapor Loop

As hial2 said,that big upper low is dipping and for sure will close the CV season.It's time to look closer to the Western Hemisphere.

[wxman57]

Has anyone considered that the central Atlantic wave that is now hanging at low latitude will beat the recurve steering currents by laying low to the south and emerge into the Caribbean where it will develop?

This unexpected scenario could be unfolding before our eyes.

You are correct. The SW/W Caribbean Sea to the BoC may be the focus for development through mid October. All that is needed to help get development started is a wave that's too far south to get picked up and carried out to sea.

[Sanibel]

Central Atlantic wave:


Poof

[Stormcenter]

Central Atlantic wave:


Poof

I still think we "may" see something weak to moderate form close to home but the waters are slowly getting cooler in the GOM and we have another (5th one)pretty significant front heading in south this weekend.
They (fronts) will only get stronger and stronger.

[Boricua]

What is that cluster at the east of Guadeloupe? It appears to have a LLC and is firing up a little this morning. Is 96L going to have a baby? Is this a next wave to watch or nothing more that a little rain for the islands?

[TheRingo]

Seems convection has died some but the system is getting broad.

[Boricua]

Looks like the show is almost over for the eastern Atlantic Ocean the curtain is going down. I thing only one more low near the CV could past but I am not even 15% sure.