W. Caribbean Blob

#61 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:12 pm

No surprise. The NHC doesn't jump over a blob of convection. They wait and act cautious. The right way to do it!!!

cheezyWXguy · #62 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:24 pm

I hope this deosnt develop...im going ona cruise throguh the western caribbean in 3 days! :eek:

#63 Postby **MGC** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:27 pm

This area should be monitored for persistance. This is the time of year when systems like to get cranking in the W Carb Sea. Sear don't appear to be all that bad. Keep an eye on this one.......MGC

#64 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:33 pm

personally I think I will be editing the title of this thread tonight as I think the blob will grow and persist and the NHC will indicate "slow development is possible over the next day or so as it moves NW"

There is a diurnal maximum tonight it will hit and right now it is blowing up during a diurnal minimum.

#65 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:51 pm

Should be interesting over the next day as the Tropical Wave nears this area of convection.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

chrisnnavarre · #66 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:08 pm

Looks like the system seems to think things are very favorable. It's getting to be a very big blob, for lack of a better word. Buoy in the Cayman Islands is indicating 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa) currently.... Anyone have any readings from over near the western areas?

Thunder44 · #67 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:31 pm

There was another blob just like this one in the Western Carribean earlier this season, and the NHC didn't mention it in their TWO. Why is this one worthy of mention?

#68 Postby **O Town** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:52 pm

Thunder44 wrote:There was another blob just like this one in the Western Carribean earlier this season, and the NHC didn't mention it in their TWO. Why is this one worthy of mention?

Not all blobs are created equally. :wink:

This is the time of year where systems like to develope in that area, and there was probably alot different of an enviroment surrounding the blob you are talking about,each system is different

#69 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:53 pm

Looks to me like there could be a small anticyclone over this area developing as you can see the high clouds are fanning out symmetrically. Although they are warming currently, I really think we need to seriously watch this blob. I give it about a 50% chance of development at this time.

Current Atlantic wind shear map showing some marginally favorable conditions:

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:02 pm

8pm discussion indicates no development still:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS IN THE
WRN PORTION AROUND 80W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 78W-83W...WITH THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION GENERALLY BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA. THIS SEEMS
MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A WELL DEFINED
UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
REGION NOT FALLING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. TRADES
CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ON THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC
HIGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LOWER PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA.
SIMILAR TRADES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sanibel · #71 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:41 pm

See if it persists. Looks more like a wave than diffluence at this point.

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:24 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 270207
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA HAVE WEAKENED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

#73 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:33 pm

yep, it didn't persist but some new thunderstorms are developing now. It seems to be pulsing but not maintaining anything. Just a pulsing blob.

Sanibel · #74 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 8:07 am

Poof

2006 not supporting development.

Frank2 · #75 Postby **Frank2** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 10:28 am

Wow - look at those westerly winds over the northern Gulf and Florida - looks like early Winter...

Frank

cinlfla · #76 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 10:54 am

Frank2 wrote:Wow - look at those westerly winds over the northern Gulf and Florida - looks like early Winter...

Frank

Sure as heck doesn't feel like early winter.

DESTRUCTION5 · #77 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:02 am

Yea, Looks like Winter will be here by Mid Oct..Were looking at a foll El nino on the Horrizon...Looks Like Cane season 06 is going to strugle to get another name..

flhurricaneguy · #78 Postby **flhurricaneguy** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:12 am

ITS OVER SEE YA IN 07

sma10 · #79 Postby **sma10** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:16 am

gatorcane wrote:I give it about a 50% chance of development at this time.

You do?

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:20 am

sma10 lol very funny.

Now I give it a -50% chance of development :lol:

This season is over I think. Unbelievable a difference a year makes

W. Caribbean Blob

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