Ok, I've created 2 Hurricanes. How did I do?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Jim Cantore

Ok, I've created 2 Hurricanes. How did I do?

#1 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:05 pm

Please, be honest.

I'm not -removed-, I have nothing better to do.

A Tropical Depression forms south of the Cape Verde islands. It struggles for it's first 60 hours before getting it's act together and becoming Tropical Storm Gabrielle. Gabrielle continued to strengthen and became a Hurricane the next day as it moved along toward the WNW.

Then she strengthens at a good rate going from a category 1 to a category 4 in 36 hours. Shortly after Gabrielle became a category 5, reaching a peak intensity of 165mph and a 917mb pressure.

Gabrielle underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, being downgraded to a category 4, but then briefly re-gaining category 5 strength. Then responding to a weakness in the ridge, Gabrielle turned out.. seemingly. She passed to the west of Bermuda as a category 4 Hurricane when an unusual event occured. An unusually placed Bermuda high shot Gabrielle back toward the WNW. Gabrielle accelerated toward the Mid atlantic This She would make landfall near Cape May New Jersey as a category 3 with 120mph winds. Record warm SST's allowed her to maintain this intensity. As she moved inland, she got funneled by the Bermuda high and ECT and accelerated into New England where she became extratropical.

Image

Thanks to wxmann_91 for this photoshop
Image

I even wrote an advisory, obviously this is NOT an official advisory.

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2007

…LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE GABIRELLE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY…BECOMES THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE TO HIT THE STATE SINCE 1821…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA NORTH TO MUNTAUK NEW YORK. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO CAPE HATTARAS NORTH CAROLINA. AND FROM MUNTAUK NEW YORK TO THE MASSACHUSETTS/NEW HAMPSHIRE BOARDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 2PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH… LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST. THIS POSITION PUTS THE CENTER RIGHT OVER CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 23 MPH. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GABRIELLE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

GABRIELLE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 135 MILES FROM THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 400 MILES. A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR AGO, CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 97 MPH WITH A GUST TO 119 MPH. WILDWOOD NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 122 MPH. ATLANTIC CITY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH A GUST TO 131 MPH. PHILADELPHIA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 77 MPH. NEW YORK CITY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 MPH WITH A GUST TO 88 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 22 FEET…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES… WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 2PM EDT POSITION…38.9 NORTH… 74.9 WEST…MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS… 120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE… 952 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EDT AND 6 PM EDT. FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM EDT.

FORECASTER DOESNTEXIST

$$
NNNN



Final numbers

Damage total: 75-125 billion dollars
Deaths: 1000-3000

Ok guys, lay it on me, is it plausible or obserd?

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by Jim Cantore on Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:02 pm, edited 7 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

#2 Postby hial2 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:08 pm

You forgot one important thing...time of the year
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#3 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:09 pm

hial2 wrote:You forgot one important thing...time of the year


Check the advisory. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxmann_91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8013
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
Location: Southern California
Contact:

#4 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:11 pm

Of course it's plausible. A strong high or strongly negatively-tilted trough will do that for you.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146119
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:13 pm

As a moderator and to follow the rules of storm2k,even though,you posted that is not official,the storm2k disclaimer has to be there and I added it to your post.
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

#6 Postby hial2 » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:13 pm

Category 5 wrote:
hial2 wrote:You forgot one important thing...time of the year


Check the advisory. :wink:


Never mind..I just read your theory,not the advisory...BTW, it's plausible..What was the date of the Great Storm of 38? (a subtropical storm)
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#7 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:19 pm

cycloneye wrote:As a moderator and to follow the rules of storm2k,even though,you posted that is not official,the storm2k disclaimer has to be there and I added it to your post.


Ok thanks, sorry about that, I wasn't sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#8 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:45 pm

Some questions that need to be asked is how often would a event like this occur? Has it ever happened before in recorded history? What are the chances of this happening?

Good work in creating a fake hurricane event. You can put the storm name on that track map plus your name on the bottom.
Last edited by Cyclenall on Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 64
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

#9 Postby angelwing » Tue Sep 26, 2006 7:45 pm

Cape May NJ? You are bored :lol:

Seriously, I find it very plausible, it's been quite a while (I don't have the historical info right now)since something has come up this way. I can see major damage to the casinos in AC also and in Philly I can see a lot of wind damage, power loss, and some major flooding, especially from the rivers here.

As for Wilwood, I haven't been there in years is it still a 3 mile walk from the boardwalk to the beach????
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#10 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:02 pm

angelwing wrote:As for Wildwood, I haven't been there in years is it still a 3 mile walk from the boardwalk to the beach????


Yep, and the way it sticks out, this storm might make it bigger.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#11 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:07 pm

nice write-up. I would contend that given the position of your highs and lows on your map, a gradual turn to the WNW and then NW would be more likely, not the sharp turn NNW and then back to the WNW. I just don't see that happening.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#12 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:nice write-up. I would contend that given the position of your highs and lows on your map, a gradual turn to the WNW and then NW would be more likely, not the sharp turn NNW and then back to the WNW. I just don't see that happening.


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#13 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:21 pm

yep that is more likely.


Good write-up by the way
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#14 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:22 pm

yes, that is what I was thinking as far as track...

Good write-up by the way :eek:
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#15 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:25 pm

Thanks, it came out much better then I thought lol.
0 likes   

Deputy Van Halen
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 104
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 12:00 am
Location: Texas City, TX

#16 Postby Deputy Van Halen » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:45 pm

Man, you really put some thought and effort into this. Good job.

I'm sure as part of your effort, you looked at the track of the 1903 hurricane that hit Cape May? It was only a Cat1 and it came more from the south than the southeast. I don't see why a stronger hurricane couldn't follow the same path, though the storm surge might not be as destructive as the storm you've created.

I doubt there would be 1,000-3,000 dead, but it's hard to say without any precedent to compare it to.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#17 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:47 pm

Deputy Van Halen wrote:Man, you really put some thought and effort into this. Good job.

I'm sure as part of your effort, you looked at the track of the 1903 hurricane that hit Cape May? It was only a Cat1 and it came more from the south than the southeast. I don't see why a stronger hurricane couldn't follow the same path, though the storm surge might not be as destructive as the storm you've created.

I doubt there would be 1,000-3,000 dead, but it's hard to say without any precedent to compare it to.


The Vegabond Hurricane of 1903, the last Hurricane to hit the state, a major Hurricane hasn't hit the state in 185 years.

as for my death toll, I use this with the fact that Philadelphia and NYC would be effected extensively. Also, when Isabel came in, people around here seemed to take it like a joke.
0 likes   

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 64
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

#18 Postby angelwing » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:00 pm

They took Floyd like a joke too, at least a lot of the people in Philly did
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#19 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:10 pm

Here, I made up wind gusts

Atlantic City NJ: 131mph
Ocean City NJ: 127mph
Wildwood NJ: 122mph
Cape May NJ: 119mph
Long Beach Island NJ: 111mph
Sea Isle City NJ: 108mph
Lewes DE: 104mph
Somers Point NJ: 103mph
Wilmington DE: 93mph
Asbury Park NJ: 91mph
Philadelphia PA: 90mph
New York City: 88mph
Sandy Hook NJ: 87mph
Fort Dix NJ: 86mph
Montauk NY: 82mph
Camden NJ: 81mph
Fenwick Island DE: 79mph
Trenton NJ: 78mph
Ocean City MD: 76mph
Newark NJ: 75mph
Chincoteague VA: 74mph
Baltimore MD: 72mph
Bridgeport CT: 71mph
Virginia Beach VA: 70mph
Newport RI: 69mph
Nags Head NC: 66mph
Providence RI: 64mph
Marthas Vineyard MA: 58mph
Cape Hatteras NC: 56mph
Boston MA: 46mph
Washington DC: 43mph
Last edited by Jim Cantore on Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#20 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:12 pm

angelwing wrote:They took Floyd like a joke too, at least a lot of the people in Philly did


thats nothing, one man in Jersey was killed during Isabel when he decided to take his small craft into Barnaget bay for some fishing.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: alan1961, AnnularCane, CFLHurricane, dexterlabio, TomballEd, weatherSnoop, wzrgirl1 and 68 guests