WPAC - Xangsane - ~200 deaths in the Philippines

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone know how to say xangsane?

[HURAKAN]

does anyone know how to say xangsane?

I have been trying to find out but the only thing I get is the translation.

[JonathanBelles]

yea elephant is kinda geting annoying

[HURAKAN]

Got it!!!

Xangsane = shang-sarn

[JonathanBelles]

thanx

[Dave C]

It's beginning to see!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[wxmann_91]

I had expected this to strengthen rapidly, but I was expecting a more poleward track. Had this not gone over the Phillippines, this would be a pretty powerful typhoon with a classical pattern to support one (wet MJO has brought on a very active monsoonal trough).

I am concerned for the potential of severe flooding over the Phillippines. They have gotten drenched!

[HURAKAN]

Almost landfall. NRL says 90 knots and that seems to be right just by looking the system.

[HURAKAN]

T0615 (XANGSANE)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 27 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0615 XANGSANE (0615)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 12.5N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 13.5N 123.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
48HF 290000UTC 14.9N 119.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 300000UTC 15.6N 115.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

[SouthFloridawx]

I like the idea of this type of forecast track as opposed to ours in the Atlantic. There is no straight line here.

[wxmann_91]

Aslkahuna,

Do you have any opinions on the future track and intensity of Xangsane? I do recall that many storms that cross the projected path usually die a quick death in the S. China Sea later in October and November as they reach the mainland (Angela of 1995 would be a good example), but I'm not so sure about the fates of those earlier in the year.

Thank you.

[superfly]

27/0233 UTC 12.7N 125.1E TOO WEAK XANGSANE -- West Pacific Ocean

[Coredesat]

Xangsane is a typhoon now, according to JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 12.7N 125.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 14.0N 122.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 290000UTC 14.9N 119.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 300000UTC 15.6N 115.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

[Aslkahuna]

Late September and early October storms can make it across the SCS and even intensify since the NE monsoon hasn't become established there yet.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Thanks for the info Steve.

BTW, Xangsane has become extremely powerful with a well-defined eye:



Unless something drastically changes, it is poised to strike at peak intensity in Legazpi City, Luzon, which has a population of 157,010 in the next 1-2 hr. The city is located at the head of the Albay Gulf. (which is actually really a bay)

Really sounds like an ugly situation there.

This is really a tough call for the Navy/JTWC - the Navy assigns intensities at 6Z, which is right about now, and if it does it would probably be a Cat 4. But the JTWC issues advisories 6 hours later, in which Xangsane would probably already be over land and weakening. Will be interesting to see what happens wrt official intensity.

EDIT: forgot to mention, the volcano nearby, Mayon, is active. Just wanted to add something to complicate matters even more. link

[Coredesat]

Great, another Yunya.

No intensity update yet from NRL. Then again, I'm fairly sure they're in the eclipse, because the CIMSS ADT (and the NRL satellite images) haven't updated since 0530Z (which was an hour and a half ago).

[P.K.]

Xangsane has bombed overnight, up to 90kts (940hPa).

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 12.9N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 14.4N 121.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 290600UTC 15.6N 117.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 300600UTC 16.1N 113.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the 115 knots put out by the JTWC. Very strong storm. If it had more time who knows.

[Aslkahuna]

Important to note, the last big storm to run up the Bicol Peninsula into Manila was Angela in 1995 which had a landfalling intensity of 115kt at Daet. But Angela was coming down from a 140kt intensity as it passed north of Virac while this one is cranking as it crosses the San Bernardino Strait. It could hit Manila with the same intensity as Angela which would be not good. Old Clark AB could see 50-60kt gusts while Subic could see 70-80 kt sustained winds (1-minute).

Steve

[HURAKAN]

T0615 (XANGSANE)
Issued at 12:00 UTC 27 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0615 XANGSANE (0615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 13.2N 123.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 15.4N 119.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.1N 115.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 301200UTC 16.1N 111.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT