What If Rita Hit South of Houston/Galveston

[Jim Cantore]

It just occured to me, what if a storm hit just north of Galveston. No seawall on the bayside right?

[Deputy Van Halen]

If a Cat4 or higher hits, you can kiss Galveston goodbye. It would be nearly wiped out imo. A 5? 1900 all over again.

BTW, speaking of 1900, I have always wondered why this storm was classified as a 4? Was there any pressure measurements (Even if they were low, Katrina and Rita showed us that pressure does not always relate to maximum windspeeds)? Im sure there where no wind measurements....so what really makes the Galveston hurricane a 4? Could it have been a low end 3 like Rita?

I think it's a bit of an exaggeration to say that "you can kiss Galveston goodbye" in a Cat 4, any more than we've kissed Biloxi or Homestead goodbye. Undoubtedly the damage would be significant, and it might take a decade to fully recover, but Galveston would move on. After all, major hurricanes hit in 1909, 1915, 1932, 1949, 1961, and 1983. And there could never really be a "1900 all over again", at least in terms of loss of life, unless 15,000 people are stupid enough to not evacuate when the storm of the century hits.

Overtopping the Seawall is a definite possibility in a major hurricane. I remember that even in little storms like Frances and Claudette, some waves were crashing onto Seawall Blvd. Parts of the city right behind the Seawall are several feet below the top of the Seawall itself. I lived there for a couple years; many a time I walked uphill to get onto the sidewalk atop the wall. Flooding could therefore happen even if the storm surge doesn't actually rise above the Seawall itself. Water could accumulate from rain and could flow in from other parts of the island.

I think the "official" wind and barometer readings from the 1900 storm are derived from a combination of scattered readings at the time, and estimates based on damage and storm surge. I'm sure it could have easily been a Katrina-style strong Cat3, but of course we'll never know for sure. There must be some literature somewhere outlining how these estimates are derived.

[jeff]

I suppose I will throw my 2 cents in.

Had Rita made landfall where it was progged at 1000pm Wed evening the results would have been nothing short of catastrophic. Based on the surge heights along the SW LA coast of 15-17 feet the seawall would have been near its capacity to hold back the Gulf. Wave action would have no doubt exceeded its height and pounded the structures that line Seawall Blvd. The western end of the island (where buildings are being constructed at an astounding rate) would have resembeled Holly Beach as well as the Bolivar Pen. and portions of Surfside and coastal Brazoria County. It is little doubt that both the western end of Galveston and Bolivar would have suffered severe erosion and scour effects and likely substainial cutting due to a lack of dune protection and the forecasted rapid flow of seawater trapped in the bay Gulfward after the hurricane moved inland.

One aspect that seems to be somewhat forgotten would be the large inland penetration of the storm surge nearly covering Galveston County and the SE 1/3rd of Harris County. While the majority of the long period wave energy would be displaced on the barrier islands (Galveston and Bolivar) flooding by seawater would inundate 100's of thousands of homes. Present day Kemah and Seabrook along with their mounting home development tracts would have suffered severe loss as well as the petrochemical industry that lines the Ship Channel. Portions of eastern Glveston County (along and east of I-45) are growing at nearly 20% a year and this entire area is within the 15 foot elevation range.

We too will see the population displacement, and the lack of supplies, and hard living conditions following a large major hurricane. WHY? Because when 900,000 homes are affected (just surge) and an additional 1-2 million with wind damage it overwhelms any kind of response that can be mounted. I dread the day this happens as this area will never be the same and the scares will be deep and long lasting.

[Jagno]

They would be picking up the peices and moving forward.................no matter how slow it seems. My "lot" is beginning to look like home again instead of a landfill piled with Rita debris. This one year anniversary only served to remind us just how far we've come yet the realization that we will never be back to "normal" for a long long time. I'm sure our Flordia members can relate as well.

[Normandy]

If a Cat4 or higher hits, you can kiss Galveston goodbye. It would be nearly wiped out imo. A 5? 1900 all over again.

BTW, speaking of 1900, I have always wondered why this storm was classified as a 4? Was there any pressure measurements (Even if they were low, Katrina and Rita showed us that pressure does not always relate to maximum windspeeds)? Im sure there where no wind measurements....so what really makes the Galveston hurricane a 4? Could it have been a low end 3 like Rita?

I think it's a bit of an exaggeration to say that "you can kiss Galveston goodbye" in a Cat 4, any more than we've kissed Biloxi or Homestead goodbye. Undoubtedly the damage would be significant, and it might take a decade to fully recover, but Galveston would move on. After all, major hurricanes hit in 1909, 1915, 1932, 1949, 1961, and 1983. And there could never really be a "1900 all over again", at least in terms of loss of life, unless 15,000 people are stupid enough to not evacuate when the storm of the century hits.

Overtopping the Seawall is a definite possibility in a major hurricane. I remember that even in little storms like Frances and Claudette, some waves were crashing onto Seawall Blvd. Parts of the city right behind the Seawall are several feet below the top of the Seawall itself. I lived there for a couple years; many a time I walked uphill to get onto the sidewalk atop the wall. Flooding could therefore happen even if the storm surge doesn't actually rise above the Seawall itself. Water could accumulate from rain and could flow in from other parts of the island.

I think the "official" wind and barometer readings from the 1900 storm are derived from a combination of scattered readings at the time, and estimates based on damage and storm surge. I'm sure it could have easily been a Katrina-style strong Cat3, but of course we'll never know for sure. There must be some literature somewhere outlining how these estimates are derived.

Biloxi was not in the worst part of Katrina, despite the horrific damage seen there. A better estimate of Katrina's worse would be to look at Bay Saint Louis or Pass Christian. However, all areas along the MGC got severely impacted. And If I remember correctly, Homestead was largely destroyed by Andrew.

My point is this, and Jeff echoes it further. A large Cat 3+ hurricane hitting Galveston would probably challenge Katrina in terms of economic loss, but probably not in terms of loss of life....Why? Becuase right behind Galveson is Houston, the nations 4th largest city, and a large Katrina sized Cat 3 would bring hurricane force winds into Downtown Houston, and this I have no doubts about. As far as Galveson is concerned, if a Cat4 or higher hits, you would have to add severe wind damage WITH the surge damage, and those two combined would do enough I think to destroy much of Galveston.

[Jim Cantore]

I dont think this has been mentioned but what if the Seawall collapses?