Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[Sanibel]

As long as the convection persists it should develop further downrange.

Moving west along 22.5N. Should lift soon.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 26, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands have not become any better organized this morning.
However...this system still has some potential for tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two as it moves to the northwest
around 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.

Forecaster Mainelli/Pasch

[hial2]

There was talk yesterday from the NHC in Puerto Rico to the possible splitting of 96L, with the lower half tracking west..Is that what's happening now with the blob S/W of 96l??

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Code: Select all

739
WHXX04 KWBC 261724
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    96L

INITIAL TIME  12Z SEP 26

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            21.1             49.2           295./ 9.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT   0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

There was talk yesterday from the NHC in Puerto Rico to the possible splitting of 96L, with the lower half tracking west..Is that what's happening now with the blob S/W of 96l??

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N DRIFTING WEST. THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
RELATED TO THE WAVE.

That is the southern branch of the whole system 96L.The southern area is a wave that will move west to the Lesser Antilles by thursday.

[cycloneye]

26/1745 UTC 22.9N 50.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060926 1800 060927 0600 060927 1800 060928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 50.0W 24.2N 52.1W 26.1N 53.8W 28.1N 55.3W
BAMM 22.7N 50.0W 24.0N 52.2W 25.6N 54.1W 27.3N 55.6W
A98E 22.7N 50.0W 24.2N 51.9W 25.6N 53.4W 26.6N 54.6W
LBAR 22.7N 50.0W 24.1N 52.0W 25.8N 53.8W 27.7N 55.5W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060928 1800 060929 1800 060930 1800 061001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 56.2W 32.6N 56.9W 34.4N 56.2W 35.9N 54.5W
BAMM 28.8N 56.6W 30.7N 57.7W 31.6N 58.5W 33.1N 59.9W
A98E 27.7N 55.4W 29.0N 57.0W 29.5N 58.6W 30.5N 59.1W
LBAR 29.2N 56.8W 32.3N 57.6W 35.1N 56.6W 35.3N 53.6W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 50.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 48.4W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 20.1N LONM24 = 46.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

403
ABNT20 KNHC 262100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060927 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060927 0000 060927 1200 060928 0000 060928 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 51.0W 24.8N 52.7W 26.8N 54.1W 28.8N 55.0W
BAMM 23.0N 51.0W 24.5N 52.9W 26.3N 54.3W 27.9N 55.3W
A98E 23.0N 51.0W 24.6N 52.8W 26.5N 54.2W 28.8N 55.0W
LBAR 23.0N 51.0W 24.8N 52.8W 26.6N 54.3W 28.4N 55.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060929 0000 060930 0000 061001 0000 061002 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 55.4W 32.3N 55.4W 33.9N 55.7W 36.2N 53.5W
BAMM 29.1N 55.6W 30.2N 55.9W 30.9N 56.9W 31.9N 58.2W
A98E 31.1N 55.3W 34.9N 54.8W 37.6N 52.3W 38.2N 45.7W
LBAR 29.7N 56.1W 31.8N 57.0W 33.9N 57.0W 35.7N 55.3W
SHIP 39KTS 45KTS 49KTS 48KTS
DSHP 39KTS 45KTS 49KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 49.2W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 20.2N LONM24 = 47.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on September 26, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the broad low
pressure area centered about 875 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands has changed little in organization this
evening. However...there is some potential for tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two as this system moves toward
the northwest.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea have weakened and further development is not expected.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Brown/Avila

[Thunder44]

389
ABNT20 KNHC 270910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA


QS pass this morning shows a surface circulation and 50kt+ wind barbs, perhaps rain contaminated:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

no longer an invest?

[Thunder44]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

no longer an invest?

It's back up. Still invest with winds at 15kts and the center at 23N 51W.

[Evil Jeremy]

why is it in backup mode?

[senorpepr]

why is it in backup mode?

No... it's not in backup mode. He said it's back up--meaning that it has returned to the NRL page.

[cycloneye]

And apart from the main NRL site 96L has returned to their backup site.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 24.1N 52.5W T1.0/1.5 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Meso]

GFDL run was showing this becoming a hurricane earlier today..

[jusforsean]

GFDL run was showing this becoming a hurricane earlier today..

link pls