Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

[rockyman]

Is anyone concerned about the southern extent of this wave (possibly a separate system) approaching the northern Leeward Islands? Steering currents should push this system toward Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Visible winds map indicate low level turning here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

[Sanibel]

Lifting into recurve.

[curtadams]

Looks like it is once again a depression. Third time's the charm?

[Thunder44]

026
WHXX01 KWBC 271258
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060927 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060927 1200 060928 0000 060928 1200 060929 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.2N 52.1W 27.0N 53.8W 28.8N 55.1W 30.2N 56.0W
BAMM 25.2N 52.1W 26.6N 54.0W 28.1N 55.5W 29.2N 56.4W
A98E 25.2N 52.1W 26.7N 53.7W 28.3N 54.7W 29.6N 55.2W
LBAR 25.2N 52.1W 26.9N 53.5W 28.4N 54.8W 29.6N 55.7W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060929 1200 060930 1200 061001 1200 061002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.1N 56.6W 32.7N 58.2W 35.7N 58.8W 42.2N 52.7W
BAMM 29.8N 57.1W 30.8N 58.8W 32.4N 60.4W 37.2N 56.8W
A98E 30.7N 55.5W 32.2N 57.0W 34.3N 57.2W 38.9N 52.1W
LBAR 30.7N 56.6W 32.7N 58.6W 35.6N 58.8W 38.3N 54.9W
SHIP 37KTS 43KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 43KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.2N LONCUR = 52.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 49.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[curtadams]

GFDL run was showing this becoming a hurricane earlier today..

link pls

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Although the graphic is of 35 meter winds, so probably the model actually has it as a very strong tropical storm.

[hial2]

[quote="rockyman"]Is anyone concerned about the southern extent of this wave (possibly a separate system) approaching the northern Leeward Islands? Steering currents should push this system toward Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.

Ull to its north marching in tandem with the wave imparting shear.."Development, if any,should be slow"..if it doesn't curve north..

[storms in NC]

Is anyone concerned about the southern extent of this wave (possibly a separate system) approaching the northern Leeward Islands? Steering currents should push this system toward Puerto Rico over the next couple of days.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Visible winds map indicate low level turning here:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8v4km.html

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on September 27, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

The area of low pressure...located about 850 miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands...has become a little better defined this
morning. If this trend continues...a tropical depression could
form later today or tonight.

A small area of disturbed weather is located a couple hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands. Although significant development of
this system is not anticipated...it could bring showers and gusty
winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Mainelli/Pasch

[HURAKAN]

Issac, R U There???? Please, we're bored!!!

[Windsurfer_NYC]

A 12Z ship report to the SW of the system showed a north wind, while another ship to the SE showed a SSE wind..... signs of a circulation?

[MGC]

96L is getting close to being upgraded. Convection has been forming closer to the circulation center. I'm thinking maybee at first light tomorrow....MGC

[Thunder44]

It's looking better organzied this afternoon. It may be upgraded by 5pm.

[Sanibel]

Hitting the same favorable pocket that boosted Florence and Gordon.

[Evil Jeremy]

im writing up my first advisory and will post it when it is official!!!

[Windsurfer_NYC]

09L.NONAME on NRL!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

TD9!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Brent]

Something to look at!!!!

[Windsurfer_NYC]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092006) ON 20060927 1800 UTC

Code: Select all

090
WHXX01 KWBC 271826
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION       NINE (AL092006) ON 20060927  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060927  1800   060928  0600   060928  1800   060929  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    26.1N  52.8W   27.9N  54.5W   29.7N  55.6W   31.0N  56.3W
  BAMM    26.1N  52.8W   27.6N  54.6W   29.1N  55.9W   30.2N  56.6W
  A98E    26.1N  52.8W   28.0N  54.2W   29.6N  55.0W   30.7N  55.5W
  LBAR    26.1N  52.8W   27.7N  54.1W   29.3N  55.1W   30.8N  55.8W
  SHIP        30KTS          34KTS          38KTS          41KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          34KTS          38KTS          41KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060929  1800   060930  1800   061001  1800   061002  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.9N  56.9W   34.3N  58.3W   38.9N  56.5W   43.0N  45.9W
  BAMM    31.1N  57.4W   33.6N  58.6W   37.3N  58.4W   43.7N  52.6W
  A98E    31.5N  55.8W   32.6N  58.2W   34.8N  59.1W   44.1N  51.3W
  LBAR    31.9N  56.5W   33.8N  57.2W   35.6N  56.2W   36.1N  54.5W
  SHIP        43KTS          48KTS          50KTS          53KTS
  DSHP        43KTS          48KTS          50KTS          53KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  26.1N LONCUR =  52.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
  LATM12 =  24.2N LONM12 =  51.3W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
  LATM24 =  22.7N LONM24 =  50.0W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[wxman57]

Don't have the 18Z models yet, but here are the 12Z. Track looks just like Helene's. I see no reason to disagree.

[CrazyC83]

Another fish. I don't see it getting very strong either.