#5 Postby Bgator » Wed Sep 27, 2006 11:50 am
From Jeff Masters:
A new area of concern has developed this morning near 17N 58W, about 500 miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, in association with a tropical wave moving west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave has developed a sharp increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity, and there are signs of a surface circulation in visible satellite imagery. Winds at a buoy at 16N, 58W, just to the south of the disturbance, have gone from northeast to north-northwest in the past few hours, signifying that this disturbance might have a closed circulation. Unfortunately, this morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the disturbance, and we'll have to wait until about 8pm EDT for a new pass. The disturbance will bring showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning. The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain at 10 knots or below the next few days. This may allow some development, and we will need to keep a close eye on this wave. I imagine it will end up recurving between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, but it is too early to be confident of this.
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