Disturbance East of the Leeward Islands

[Thunder44]

a simple picture tells you nada.

You're missing the point, look at the picture. It LOOKS like a fish (its shape).

Now I get it.

[TheRingo]

gfs and nogaps showing pretty good ridging 5-6 days out. Don't know if this will recurve much.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It is very early. Still with the pattern that is projected to be in place I'll have to go (right now) with a recurve between the Eastern US and Bermuda. Question is; how close does it get (if it develops) to areas like Cape Hatteras, Cape Cod, and/or Nova Scotia, New Brunswick & Eastern Maine.

[storms in NC]

dory looking for nemo

[wxman57]

Looks like it may graze the northern Caribbean then head north and out to sea. I doubt it'll develop.

[hiflyer]

From the Dutch Islands forecast for today

Tropical Weather:
A broad surface low pressure area was located this morning about 850 miles East Northeast of our region. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system remains well organized. Atmospheric conditions are more favorable for development and there is some potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two. This system will stay far to the Northeast of the local area.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

http://www.weather.an/forecast/sxmindex.asp

[MiamiensisWx]

From the Dutch Islands forecast for today

Tropical Weather:
A broad surface low pressure area was located this morning about 850 miles East Northeast of our region. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system remains well organized. Atmospheric conditions are more favorable for development and there is some potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two. This system will stay far to the Northeast of the local area.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

http://www.weather.an/forecast/sxmindex.asp

I believe they're mentioning TD 9. The system that is the subject of this thread is just east of the Leeward Islands, not 850 miles out where TD 9 is.

Here is TD 9.

Here is the true system of this thread, which is much closer to (just east) of the Leeward Islands. The Dutch Islands forecast is mentioning TD 9 MUCH further away, not this system much closer in.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 27, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Nine located about 810 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a small area of low pressure
located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated...but it could bring some showers and brief gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Public advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header wtnt34 knhc and under AWIPS header miatcpat4.
Forecast/advisories are issued under WMO header wtnt24 knhc and
under AWIPS header miatcmat4.

Forecaster brown/Knabb

Which means??? Development or no development???

[wxman57]

Why it is a fish:

[boca]

This system looked better this morning than it does now it will probably go poof overnight. The system west of Jamaica looks more interesting and that looks like a nothing too.

[boca]

Wxman57 that was funny.

[cycloneye]

Surely scattered showers and a few gusts will be the rule on thursday over the Northern Leewards and by thursday night in the BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico.But msbee,caribepr,bvigal and the rest of fellow NE Caribbean members,nothing developing to a TD or storm from this.In other words,we dont have to put up the shutters and go to the long gas station lines or running to the supermarket.

Closeup Image

[Nimbus]

I can't believe I am actually taking the time to read about a thunderstorm.

[Jim Cantore]

Why it is a fish:

I nearly just fell out of my chair

[wxman57]

On a more serious note, this disturbance appears to be the southern part of the wave that spawned TD 9. Earlier today, it was interacting with the entrance region of the jet in the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low to its northwest. That created a "hot spot" for thunderstorm development. But the same large-amplitude trof that is going to carry TD 9 northward and out to sea is also lifting out the upper low ahead of this disturbance. Without the upper low, there's no more "hot spot", and the storms have died out. Chances of redevelopment are somewhere between slim and remote.

[caneflyer]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 27, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Nine located about 810 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a small area of low pressure
located a couple hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Significant development of this system is not
anticipated...but it could bring some showers and brief gusty winds
to portions of the Leeward Islands during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Public advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header wtnt34 knhc and under AWIPS header miatcpat4.
Forecast/advisories are issued under WMO header wtnt24 knhc and
under AWIPS header miatcmat4.

Forecaster brown/Knabb

Which means??? Development or no development???

I'd say it means exactly what it says. If there is any development, it won't be of any real consequence.

[canetracker]

This is really funny. I thought we saw it all with Wilma and a number 2 in the center...however, this fish shaped storm takes the cake. I pulled up the original infrared image and showed it to my hubby and he said it looked like an angel fish. Then I showed him weatherman57's outliined image. He was quite amused as was I.