Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

#341 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 7:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092006) ON 20060928 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060928 0000 060928 1200 060929 0000 060929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 53.4W 28.5N 54.9W 29.8N 55.8W 30.6N 56.6W
BAMM 26.8N 53.4W 28.1N 55.0W 29.2N 56.0W 29.8N 57.1W
A98E 26.8N 53.4W 28.2N 54.9W 29.6N 55.8W 30.7N 56.2W
LBAR 26.8N 53.4W 28.4N 54.7W 29.8N 55.8W 31.0N 56.7W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 38KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060930 0000 061001 0000 061002 0000 061003 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 57.6W 33.3N 59.8W 37.1N 60.4W 45.4N 50.6W
BAMM 30.6N 58.2W 32.2N 60.2W 35.2N 60.8W 42.1N 53.0W
A98E 31.6N 56.8W 33.3N 59.1W 36.3N 58.8W 43.9N 47.1W
LBAR 32.2N 57.6W 34.1N 58.0W 36.3N 57.0W 36.3N 54.8W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 49KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 49KTS 49KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.8N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 51.7W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.6N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

No change in intensity.In other words,no Issac at 11 PM.

#342 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 7:51 pm

Will this be "Isaac's Storm" or will we have to wait until TD 10?!?!?!?!?!?

spinfan4eva · #343 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:02 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Will this be "Isaac's Storm" or will we have to wait until TD 10?!?!?!?!?!?

It could be #9, I think it may be one to watch along the East coast as well cause ya never know its been a strange year. Remember the I storm from 2004 :eek:

Also, remember what TD #10 became in 2005 :eek:

Quote from Wunderground Blog

New threat approaching Lesser Antilles Islands
A new area of concern has developed this morning near 17N 58W, about 500 miles east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, in association with a tropical wave moving west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave has developed a sharp increase in its heavy thunderstorm activity, and there are signs of a surface circulation in visible satellite imagery. Winds at a buoy at 16N, 58W, just to the south of the disturbance, have gone from northeast to north-northwest in the past few hours, signifying that this disturbance might have a closed circulation. Unfortunately, this morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the disturbance, and we'll have to wait until about 8pm EDT for a new pass. The disturbance will bring showers and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning. The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain at 10 knots or below the next few days. This may allow some development, and we will need to keep a close eye on this wave. I imagine it will end up recurving between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast, but it is too early to be confident of this.

#344 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:04 pm

Could that be a second system?

#345 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 9:31 pm

I just tried to make reference to the book "Isaac's Storm"!!!

superfly · #346 Postby **superfly** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 2:19 am

28/0645 UTC 27.5N 54.0W T2.5/2.5 09L -- Atlantic Ocean

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #347 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:08 am

We track all these systems, that we can't hardly find a LLC to. This one clearly has a strong LLC, which convection is pulling over it. Looks about ready to earn its name.

#348 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:46 am

I think we have Isaac.

#349 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:16 am

QuikSCAT shows 40kt un-flagged winds in the NE quadrant of TD 9. I think the NHC may upgrade it on the next advisory. Watch for the 12Z models to initialize at 35 kts with the header Tropical Storm Nine.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_09as.png

#350 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:19 am

28/1145 UTC 27.8N 54.4W T2.5/2.5 09L -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD dvorak confirms the 35kts.

#351 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:51 am

TROPICAL STORM NINE (AL092006) ON 20060928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060928 1200 060929 0000 060929 1200 060930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 54.5W 29.0N 55.4W 29.5N 56.3W 30.1N 57.4W
BAMM 27.9N 54.5W 28.6N 55.6W 28.9N 56.8W 29.5N 58.1W
A98E 27.9N 54.5W 28.9N 55.6W 29.8N 56.4W 30.9N 57.0W
LBAR 27.9N 54.5W 29.1N 55.4W 30.0N 56.5W 30.8N 57.8W
SHIP 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS
DSHP 35KTS 38KTS 39KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060930 1200 061001 1200 061002 1200 061003 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.8N 58.7W 32.6N 60.6W 36.6N 59.6W 45.1N 52.9W
BAMM 30.0N 59.4W 31.6N 61.8W 35.7N 61.7W 43.6N 55.7W
A98E 31.8N 57.8W 33.4N 59.6W 37.2N 57.8W 47.0N 50.9W
LBAR 31.9N 59.6W 34.8N 60.9W 39.6N 60.0W 48.5N 44.7W
SHIP 42KTS 46KTS 48KTS 47KTS
DSHP 42KTS 46KTS 48KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.9N LONCUR = 54.5W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 53.4W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 51.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Issac!!.But as a reminder,the storm2k policy is to wait for the official word from NHC to then change titles of threads.

#352 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:39 am

It's not the most beautiful tropical storm ever but here is your TS ISAAC.

MiamiensisWx · #353 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:13 am

I don't think TD 9/Isaac has much time left as a tropical storm, as it has a very shallow structure currently with much more marginal convection activity than earlier yesterday. In addition, a frontal-like mid-level feature extending southwest from TD 9/Isaac is becoming more apparent on visible imagery, along with the other synoptic features I aforementioned; thus, I don't believe it may be much longer before extratropical transition of TD 9/likely Isaac (per next advisory). Not as much chance to maintain even subtropical storm status before extratropical transition may begin potentially by roughly 36 to 48 hours. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the mid-level trough and moderate surface front associated with an ULL to the northwest of TD 9/Isaac will likely aid in this extratropical transition, along with the fact that TD 9/Isaac is looking less and less organized and less of a warm-core system.

Looks like a briefly-lived Isaac to me.

Thunder44 · #354 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:23 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:I don't think TD 9/Isaac has much time left as a tropical storm, as it has a very shallow structure currently with much more marginal convection activity than earlier yesterday. In addition, a frontal-like mid-level feature extending southwest from TD 9/Isaac is becoming more apparent on visible imagery, along with the other synoptic features I aforementioned; thus, I don't believe it may be much longer before extratropical transition of TD 9/likely Isaac (per next advisory). Not as much chance to maintain even subtropical storm status before extratropical transition may begin potentially by roughly 36 to 48 hours. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the mid-level trough and moderate surface front associated with an ULL to the northwest of TD 9/Isaac will likely aid in this extratropical transition, along with the fact that TD 9/Isaac is looking less and less organized and less of a warm-core system.

Looks like a briefly-lived Isaac to me.

I agree it does look more subtropical now. I think that was mentioned in one of the TPC discussions that it could make that transition.

MiamiensisWx · #355 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:36 am

As I suspected, latest advisory out indicates we have Tropical Storm Isaac. The synoptics still support that the system still may have sustained tropical storm-force winds and a weak to moderate warmish core.

From the latest (11AM EST) discussion, it confirms my thoughts on subtropical characteristics and not much more intensification beyond 10KT to 15KT or 16KT...

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS A LITTLE SKELETAL... A
QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0845 UTC PROVIDES STRONG EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST 35
KT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM. THUS THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
YEAR... ISAAC... IS BORN. THE STORM IS ALSO EXHIBITING SOME
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS LARGER
THAN AVERAGE NEAR 75 NM... AND ALSO AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY ON TOP
OF THE CYCLONE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE HOVERING NEAR 26C
IN THE PATH OF ISAAC... COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST... WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
INSTABILITY AND MORE CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.

#356 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:40 am

are you kidding me? How can they even call this a TS. :roll:

#357 Postby **AnnularCane** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:58 am

He looks beautiful to me. Hello, Isaac. 8-)

Thunder44 · #358 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:03 am

gatorcane wrote:are you kidding me? How can they even call this a TS.

It probably should of been called a TS earlier this morning, but they wanted to wait for more data to confirm.

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #359 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:26 am

So ends the streak of I-storms becoming hurricanes....Irene, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore, Iris, Isaac2000...you have to go all the way back to 1989 to find an I-storm that only reached TS strength.

#360 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:30 am

Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:So ends the streak of I-storms becoming hurricanes....Irene, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore, Iris, Isaac2000...you have to go all the way back to 1989 to find an I-storm that only reached TS strength.

Nevertheless, there wasn't an "I" storm in 1991 - 1994, & 1997, five years right there.

Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

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