Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

[cycloneye]

wxman57,try to pinpoint the area that NHC says there is a small low,70 miles ENE of Barbuda and with the great images that you have tell us if there is something there.

[gatorcane]

it had better find the weakness soon as the GFS is calling for a big ridge to build in across the eastern CONUS starting in about 96 hours. Here is the 144 hour GFS:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... hour=144hr

[Brent]

will the board get jumping again because of this?

No I don't think this will be anything...Just another Invest Bust

Probably... and if it does develop I can't see it making it to the East Coast.

[wxman57]

wxman57,try to pinpoint the area that NHC says there is a small low,70 miles ENE of Barbuda and with the great images that you have tell us if there is something there.

I don't see any low center (implies a circulation). Just a thunderstorm "blob". Here's a close-up satellite with surface obs. Winds 5-10 kts around the blob, no circulation evident.

[Dynamic]

For those like me that is the first time that heard about Barbuda. It is a small island part on Antigua, the small island north of Antigua in the map.

[mike815]

i wouldnt be suppised if it developes though not holding my breath. im not entirely sure it will go out to sea but it may go further west then we have been seeing which is nice for a change lol

[hial2]

[quote="Dynamic"]For those like me that is the first time that heard about Barbuda. It is a small island part on Antigua, the small island north of Antigua in the map.

Also well known in the old days as a pirate hangout..anyone remembers the movie Captain Blood?..Errol Flynn?..Anyone?

[boca]

I think Ernesto was the second furthest west storm besides Alberto.

[caribepr]

For those like me that is the first time that heard about Barbuda. It is a small island part on Antigua, the small island north of Antigua in the map.

Dynamic, good for you for having the question and then finding the answer and then thoughtfully providing a visual for the island of Barbuda to educate others. KUDOS!!!

[wxman57]

Here's a really close-up McIDAS shot. No evidence of any rotation. Just building and collapsing thunderstorms.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce4.gif

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see anything with this system. Not sure why this is an invest, unless it is because of the westerly winds south of the system. Might be a broad low

[Blown Away]

Looks like it's getting sheared.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[sma10]

will the board get jumping again because of this?

No, just you.

The system at this time looks pretty pathetic.

[AtlanticWind]

Here's a really close-up McIDAS shot. No evidence of any rotation. Just building and collapsing thunderstorms.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce4.gif

The sat pic you posted looks like their is a evidence of rotation , banded low clouds and a circular shape.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NHC latest Surface Analysis Chart passes this low pressure area through Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

12Z Surface Analysis Chart
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[gatorcane]

Looks like it's getting sheared.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

I think it is yet another ULL off to its west. Just amazing how the ULLs are like land mines all across the Atlantic this season. They just don't seem to go away.

[Blown Away]

NHC latest Surface Analysis Chart passes this low pressure area through Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

12Z Surface Analysis Chart
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

The current models would have to be thrown out, because none even come close to PR.

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html


Looking at visible loop a closed circulation is evident, The question is can this system keep firing convection.

[Blown Away]

All I see is a blob of clouds with the tops getting sheared.

[boca]

Same here a sheared system.