Invest 97L North of V.I,Puerto Rico,Models,Sats and Comments

[storms in NC]

Probably... and if it does develop I can't see it making it to the East Coast.

yes is can come close to the east coast. A hit ifff it developes No I don't think so. But Fla should keep a eye on this iffy.It is going WNW so all up in the air I would think.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 281725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 60.5 285./ 8.9
6 18.3 61.2 295./ 7.7
12 18.2 62.6 265./13.3
18 18.3 63.4 280./ 7.8
24 19.2 64.3 314./12.2
30 19.1 65.5 264./11.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 30 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

12z run of GFDL for 97L dissipates it at 30 hours.The small track is not a normal GFDL northbound one at least in this run.

28/1745 UTC 18.0N 61.3W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Evil Jeremy]

this will be intresting. two possible paths, one leading to a SFL landfall.

[WeatherEmperor]

this will be intresting. two possible paths, one leading to a SFL landfall.

I am not very good at this, but what do you mean by two possible paths? Can you show me which paths you are referring to? Thanks.

<RICKY>

[Evil Jeremy]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

[gatorcane]

this will be intresting. two possible paths, one leading to a SFL landfall.

if models show this, then this will really get the board jumping...doubt it will happen

[gatorcane]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

link doesn't work

[wxman57]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

Be very careful what you're using for models. The only tracks I see plotted are climatological forecasts, extrapolated track, and BAM. No dynamic models are being run on the system. By dynamic, I mean models that take into account the changing steering flow in advance of this system. That trof approaching the east U.S. Coast will be moving offshore over the weekend, preventing any system from reaching the east U.S. Coast. It's not going west into the Gulf, despite what JB is saying. In fact, it's likely going to dissipate.

[gatorcane]

I think it is gradually getting better organized today. Although we don't see the big thunderstorms yet, there is definitely some kind of rotation - mid-level or low-level.
Its also moving WNW and looks like it will just miss Puerto Rico to the north. I think it bears watching.

[gatorcane]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

Be very careful what you're using for models. The only tracks I see plotted are climatological forecasts, extrapolated track, and BAM. No dynamic models are being run on the system. By dynamic, I mean models that take into account the changing steering flow in advance of this system. That trof approaching the east U.S. Coast will be moving offshore over the weekend, preventing any system from reaching the east U.S. Coast. It's not going west into the Gulf, despite what JB is saying. In fact, it's likely going to dissipate.

WxMan the cold front is exiting now, ang ridging is building in behind it. There is not another one for this weekend. What are you talking about? The GFS builds a ridge over eastern CONUS and western Atlantic in about 120 hours

[wxman57]

I wouldn't call this getting better organized, and there is no evidence of a circulation at the surface or aloft. Just a mass of mid and high clouds now, leftover remnants of thunderstorms:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce5.gif

[jusforsean]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

link doesnt work:)

[chadtm80]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

link doesnt work:)

http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=97

[wxman57]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

Be very careful what you're using for models. The only tracks I see plotted are climatological forecasts, extrapolated track, and BAM. No dynamic models are being run on the system. By dynamic, I mean models that take into account the changing steering flow in advance of this system. That trof approaching the east U.S. Coast will be moving offshore over the weekend, preventing any system from reaching the east U.S. Coast. It's not going west into the Gulf, despite what JB is saying. In fact, it's likely going to dissipate.

WxMan the cold front is exiting now, ang ridging is building in behind it. There is not another one for this weekend. What are you talking about? The GFS builds a ridge over eastern CONUS and western Atlantic in about 120 hours

Take a look at the mean flow by early next week. Deep trof down to the Bahamas. Nothing will move past it. Besides, chances of development are very remote now. Maybe 5-10%.

Monday 18Z
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce6.gif

Tuesday 18Z
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/joyce7.gif

[WxGuy1]

looking at the model plot on http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif, half of the models there send it towards Florida, while the othe few move it back out to/at sea! but then again, those are the less-reliable ones.

link doesnt work:)

It doesn't work because it adds a comma to the end of the address... Just edit the web address to remove the ending comma.

[boca]

97L will probably be gone by tomorrow because the thunderstorms are diminnishing.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060928 1800 060929 0600 060929 1800 060930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 61.2W 19.0N 63.1W 20.0N 64.9W 21.0N 66.6W
BAMM 18.0N 61.2W 18.7N 63.1W 19.5N 65.0W 20.4N 67.0W
A98E 18.0N 61.2W 18.5N 62.8W 19.3N 64.5W 20.3N 66.3W
LBAR 18.0N 61.2W 18.7N 62.9W 19.7N 64.5W 20.8N 66.1W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060930 1800 061001 1800 061002 1800 061003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 68.2W 23.4N 71.1W 25.0N 72.8W 25.6N 73.2W
BAMM 21.3N 69.0W 23.2N 72.7W 24.5N 75.1W 24.5N 77.5W
A98E 21.3N 68.4W 23.8N 71.8W 26.8N 73.0W 28.9N 71.3W
LBAR 21.9N 67.2W 24.1N 69.9W 25.7N 70.7W 28.2N 70.7W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 57KTS 56KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 57KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.7N LONM12 = 59.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 57.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z models.

SkeetoBite 18:00z Graphic

[wxman57]

97L will probably be gone by tomorrow because the thunderstorms are diminnishing.

The way it's looking now, it may be gone sooner than tomorrow. I think the place to watch for Joyce will be south of the Azores / north of the Cape Verde islands in 4-5 days. Look for a large subtropical storm possibly developing there. Could be named.

[cycloneye]

Infared Loop of NE Caribbean

caribepr,msbee and the other fellow members,no worries about this turning into a cyclone.However we can see some welcome showers and some brief gusts tonight and tommorow as some islands are below normal in rainfall.That will be it from this system for the NE Caribbean islands.

[Sanibel]

El Nino-like conditions in the Atlantic. Not supporting development.