Dreaded October? Lets Not Get Too Complacent Just Yet

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Many of us are writing of this season (not all of course) but I want to start this thread to remind people that October is prime month for Florida(especially South Florida) hits from Western Caribbean systems including monsters like Wilma and the great 1921 Hurricane to hit Tampa Bay - both at the END of October. Also the Greater Antilles are also at high risk including Puerto Rico.

As WxMan57 has pointed out, models are showing that the wet phase of the MJO will be entering the Western Caribbean in about 1 week and with the penetrating frontal boundaries nearing the NW Caribbean and low lattitude tropical waves pushing into the Western Caribbean from the east, I agree that we really need to watch this area.

I am dreading October as it has been far too quiet in the Western Caribbean this season. I predict we'll see something form there of significance and will be the one system to really pose a serious threat to either Florida or some of the islands in the Caribbean.

Thoughts?

[wxmann_91]

I'm still expecting at least a NS, possibly a hurricane, in October, but the chances of anything more seems quite slim. (yes, I do know how dangerous a Cat 1/2 can be)

Getting straight to the point -
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm <-- MJO/OLR forecasts

Look at the significantly decreased OLR at the dateline come mid-October. That's a clear indication of an intensifying El Nino and it usually leads to increased shear in the MDR of the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

true an el nino could be forming but upper-level winds appear to be very favorable for development across the Western Caribbean.

[wxmann_91]

true an el nino could be forming but upper-level winds appear to be very favorable for development across the Western Caribbean.

Uh... I just stated that decreased OLR (meaning increased thunderstorm activity) over the dateline correlates to increased shear in the main development region of the Atlantic. That includes the Caribbean.

That map, if it verifies, would indicate a possible interesting October spike of activity in the EPAC, which is pretty rare considering their season normally ends around this time. We've seen some ferocious October EPAC canes that have done a lot of destruction in Mexico, such as Pauline of 1997.

[Jim Cantore]

Juan
Opal
Wilma
Mitch
Joan

[Josephine96]

No need to bring up Mitch.. That's a name that probably send shivers down some spines..

[N2FSU]

I'm not dreading October at all... I'm looking forward to some more Fall weather! Anything can happen, but I just feel like we're going to get a break this year.

[Ptarmigan]

There is a slight rise of hurricane formation in October.

[gatorcane]

There is a slight rise of hurricane formation in October.

In fact there is a secondary peak in early to mid October just a little lower than the peak at Sept 10th. That peak can be largely attributed to the spike in Western Caribbean activity that typically happens then.

[Ptarmigan]

There is a slight rise of hurricane formation in October.

In fact there is a secondary peak in early to mid October just a little lower than the peak at Sept 10th. That peak can be largely attributed to the spike in Western Caribbean activity that typically happens then.

Hurricane Wilma formed around that time. Hurricane Mitch formed in late October.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm still expecting at least a NS, possibly a hurricane, in October, but the chances of anything more seems quite slim. (yes, I do know how dangerous a Cat 1/2 can be)

Getting straight to the point -
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm <-- MJO/OLR forecasts

Look at the significantly decreased OLR at the dateline come mid-October. That's a clear indication of an intensifying El Nino and it usually leads to increased shear in the MDR of the Atlantic.

It will be very interesting that of the MJO becomes favorable as that graphic depicts in the atlantic.



However if we continue to see the Southern Jet in the Southern United States as we have and as GFS is depicting for the next week or so, we should be protected against any onslaught that late october brings here in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

[Evil Jeremy]

where did mitch hit?

[Ptarmigan]

where did mitch hit?

Mitch made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Honduras and Central America was drenched with heavy rains for the next 4 days, up to 80 inches, including 25 inches in 6 hours! Then it hit Florida as a tropical storm. 11,000 to 15,000 people died.

[AussieMark]

Notable October or November Hurricanes

1950 - King
1952 - Fox
1954 - Hazel
1961 - Hattie
1963 - Flora
1964 - Hilda, Isbell
1985 - Juan, Kate
1988 - Joan
1990 - Klaus
1995 - Opal, Roxanne
1998 - Mitch
1999 - Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Iris, Michelle
2005 - Wilma

[yahoo]

hello

[MWatkins]

One minor addition to the discussion...it's hard to generate significant October hurricanes in nino regimes.

Looking at the list of significant October hurricanes I am not sure any have occured in Nino seasons.

Also, the enhancing phase of the MJO has been running into the date line and more or less washing out since June (for the most part).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... olra_c.gif

It has been hard to pick up a significant MJO signal in the Atlantic all season...maybe it will change in the next few weeks and we will get a secondary peak. But...in situations like this I am a big fan of persistance.

MW

[Rainband]

Yes October is the month us Central Florida peeps look sw to the GOM. Mostly TS though

[Jim Cantore]

One minor addition to the discussion...it's hard to generate significant October hurricanes in nino regimes.

Looking at the list of significant October hurricanes I am not sure any have occured in Nino seasons.


MW

True, especially with the pattern in the Gulf and Caribbiean.

[wxman57]

I'm still expecting at least a NS, possibly a hurricane, in October, but the chances of anything more seems quite slim. (yes, I do know how dangerous a Cat 1/2 can be)

Getting straight to the point -
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm <-- MJO/OLR forecasts

Look at the significantly decreased OLR at the dateline come mid-October. That's a clear indication of an intensifying El Nino and it usually leads to increased shear in the MDR of the Atlantic.

I don't think that decreased OLR is the result of an El Nino. I think it's an MJO pulse moving eastward into the the western Atlantic Basin. Any El Nino out there is VERY weak. Studies have shown that weak to moderate El Ninos have little effect on the Atlantic Basin.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm still expecting at least a NS, possibly a hurricane, in October, but the chances of anything more seems quite slim. (yes, I do know how dangerous a Cat 1/2 can be)

Getting straight to the point -
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm <-- MJO/OLR forecasts

Look at the significantly decreased OLR at the dateline come mid-October. That's a clear indication of an intensifying El Nino and it usually leads to increased shear in the MDR of the Atlantic.

I don't think that decreased OLR is the result of an El Nino. I think it's an MJO pulse moving eastward into the the western Atlantic Basin. Any El Nino out there is VERY weak. Studies have shown that weak to moderate El Ninos have little effect on the Atlantic Basin.

I don't even think it's been around for the required 3 months to even call it an El Nino.