Dreaded October? Lets Not Get Too Complacent Just Yet

[AussieMark]

its no more than 4 weeks

[Jim Cantore]

Although it hasn't actually happened to this area, I worry about October, a storm comes through southwest Florida and up the east coast.

[gatorcane]

looks like there are some persistent thunderstorms blowing up in the NW Caribbean. I'll be watching it

[gatorcane]

Here are the sea surface temps as we go into October. Notice how hot the GOM especially the SE GOM and Caribbean are. Also look at the anomolies and how warm the waters are in the SE GOM and NW Caribbean compared to normal. Also look at the Eastern Caribbean around the Leeward islands. Although not a climatlogically favored area, waters are quite warm there.

[fci]

where did mitch hit?

Mitch meandered in the SW Carib and was a Cat 5 (had winds of 180!)
for 2 days before hitting Central America and looking like he would emerge into the EPAC before turning north and emerging into the BOC and crossing the Yucatan before it raced across South Florida as a TS.

He was a weird one.

[rainbird]

hello

Welcome aboard to Storm2K -

[Nimbus]

As long as the jet stream stays way down over the gulf Florida has nothing to worry about. Wish I could say the season is over but patterns can change.

[T'Bonz]

After sitting through Wilma the week before Halloween last year, I'll never write off October when it comes to storms again. Used to be I'd watch 'til about mid-Oct and say "season over!"

Now it's extended to Nov 1st. We usually (note that word) don't see anything in November.

[gatorcane]

After sitting through Wilma the week before Halloween last year, I'll never write off October when it comes to storms again. Used to be I'd watch 'til about mid-Oct and say "season over!"

Now it's extended to Nov 1st. We usually (note that word) don't see anything in November.

that's right. I don't sit easy until Dec 1st. We still have a solid 2 months.

[wxmann_91]

I'm still expecting at least a NS, possibly a hurricane, in October, but the chances of anything more seems quite slim. (yes, I do know how dangerous a Cat 1/2 can be)

Getting straight to the point -
http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm <-- MJO/OLR forecasts

Look at the significantly decreased OLR at the dateline come mid-October. That's a clear indication of an intensifying El Nino and it usually leads to increased shear in the MDR of the Atlantic.

I don't think that decreased OLR is the result of an El Nino. I think it's an MJO pulse moving eastward into the the western Atlantic Basin. Any El Nino out there is VERY weak. Studies have shown that weak to moderate El Ninos have little effect on the Atlantic Basin.

True, nevertheless, even if it is all from the MJO pulse, the point is low OLR over dateline will induce shear on the MDR of the Atlantic.

LarryWx posted today I recall in another thread about recurving storms in El Nino's. He knows a lot more about this topic of dateline convection vs. Atlantic shear. Derek mentioned it too.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...


MON-FRI...
JET STEAM PATTERN OVER THE PAC NW AND THE NRN PAC OCEAN IS NOT
NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS WEEK...AND THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS ACROSS THE N.A. CONTINENT REVEAL A NEAR LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WITHOUT ANY DIGGING JETS FOR
SUPPORT...THE NEXT COUPLE OF STORMS SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE NRN TIER STATES AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE BLOCKS THEM OUT.
ENERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A
CLIMO WX PATTERN THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricanes have hit Texas in October. There was a major hurricane in early October of 1949, which at one point was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds and hit as a Category 3 with 120 mph winds. It dumped a lot of rain and led to the wettest October on record and one of the wettest months. It formed in the East Pacific and crossed over. Hurricane Jerry hit in 1989, but it was weaker and much smaller. I remember it, but there was no rain or wind. It was a very small hurricane.

[Jim Cantore]

I'd be worried about Tampa in october to be honest.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but for obvious reasons I was worried more this month than I will be in October. If you think about it after Opal, Mitch and Wilma you really haven't had that many serious storms in October. The odds are against it. Yeah I know anything possible and sure we may get a October storm in the NW Carribean or GOM but a Wilma type is not likely.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Wilma and Mitch developed under perfect conditions. This is 2006 and I doubt we'll get one of those massive anticyclone setups over the Caribbean this year. Too much troughing.

That said, how many times has a decayed cold front developed in the GOM and headed northeast in October? That scenario is why I haven't written off 2006 yet. There are still surprises.

[MGC]

Hilda hit central Louisiana about the 3rd or 4th of October in 1964. Developed from a wave south of Cuba. Hilda interaced with a cold front and produced strong north winds over New Orleans once the front went by. It reminded me of Wilma last year. I was in St Augustine when Wilma crossed south Fla and the north winds in St Aug were a blowing. Hopefully S Fla won't get hit this October, I'm headed for the Keys at the end of the month....MGC

[Swimdude]

After about 5 CV's in a row, I'm not freakin' out about anything this season, until there's something to freak out about.

[gatorcane]

I am see *alot* of people writing this season off. Not sure why since we still have a solid 2 months and October has been historically an active month ????

[HURAKAN]

Even in 1997 we had 2 storms in October. I expec the first time usage of "Kirk" this season.

[bucman1]

with all th untapped warm water anything that gets going can really get going quickly!!!