Hurricane Isaac - Cat. 1

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#401 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 30, 2006 5:46 am

Image

Image

Hurricane Isaac, sounds right!!!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:04 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#402 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:19 am

30/1145 UTC 30.2N 58.1W T3.0/3.5 ISAAC -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

No hurricane yet according to SSD dvorak sat estimates.
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#403 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:24 am

Eye is no longer visible at this time, so no hurricane.
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#404 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:31 am

TheEuropean wrote:Eye is no longer visible at this time, so no hurricane.


That's because convection has blown up over the center. The eye is still there.
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#405 Postby TheEuropean » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:35 am

Thunder44 wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:Eye is no longer visible at this time, so no hurricane.


That's because convection has blown up over the center. The eye is still there.


I know, but it's not visible at this time. That's what I posted ;-)
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#406 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:46 am

TheEuropean wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
TheEuropean wrote:Eye is no longer visible at this time, so no hurricane.


That's because convection has blown up over the center. The eye is still there.


I know, but it's not visible at this time. That's what I posted ;-)


But you also said no hurricane, which I disagree with. Are you refering to what Dvorak is seeing?
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#407 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:52 am

P.K. that was the early morning 06:00 UTC run not the 12:00 UTC.
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#408 Postby P.K. » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:55 am

I noticed Luis, hence my post disappearing. :wink: Still that was only just released at 1244 GMT so its a little odd it had the old models in. Sorry, just paying more attention to Xangsane at the moment. :lol:
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#409 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:03 am

Image

Here is the 12:00 UTC run of the models.They leave Isaac at 60kts and 995 mbs.Position at 30.5n-58.3w.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#410 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:08 am

I don't see the text printout on the OSU site, but the 12z models plots are out on the map:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif
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#411 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 8:24 am

An error was made when they put out the 06:00z run of the models instead of the 12:00z run.But anyway the graphic tracks has been updated and NRL has the latest 12:00z models intensity not upgrading Isaac leaving it at 60kts.
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#412 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 9:45 am

Officially Isaac is the 5th hurricane of the 2006 season.Now the 2006 numbers so far are 9/5/2.
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#413 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:04 am

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Image

Hurricane Isaac, sounds right!!!


The NHC sometimes listens to me!!!
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#414 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 12:27 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Eye is becoming better defing on the Visible. Possibly 80 MPH at 5pm?
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#415 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 1:38 pm

022
WHXX01 KWBC 301830
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE ISAAC (AL092006) ON 20060930 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060930 1800 061001 0600 061001 1800 061002 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.3N 59.2W 32.6N 60.3W 34.9N 60.9W 38.5N 60.5W
BAMM 31.3N 59.2W 32.4N 60.7W 34.2N 62.0W 37.2N 62.1W
A98E 31.3N 59.2W 32.7N 60.5W 35.0N 60.5W 38.7N 59.3W
LBAR 31.3N 59.2W 32.8N 60.1W 34.8N 60.2W 38.0N 59.4W
SHIP 70KTS 70KTS 70KTS 71KTS
DSHP 70KTS 70KTS 70KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061002 1800 061003 1800 061004 1800 061005 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 43.3N 57.7W 52.3N 46.9W 56.6N 37.4W 57.2N 25.3W
BAMM 41.3N 59.9W 49.7N 48.4W 53.9N 38.1W 53.9N 21.5W
A98E 44.1N 55.6W 52.3N 40.3W 56.7N 16.5W 50.3N 1.5E
LBAR 42.7N 56.3W 51.2N 36.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 70KTS 65KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 70KTS 62KTS 59KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.3N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 57.7W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 29.6N LONM24 = 56.6W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$

18z models initialize at 70kts with pressure at 989mb
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#416 Postby WeatherTracker » Sat Sep 30, 2006 1:51 pm

Another boring fish storm... And everyone agrees...only 17 people viewing right now... :roll: :roll:
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#417 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 30, 2006 1:51 pm

FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:

ISAAC, 2006:
Image

ISAAC, 2000:
Image
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#418 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 30, 2006 1:54 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:Another boring fish storm... And everyone agrees...only 17 people viewing right now... :roll: :roll:


I don't think Isaac is boring. It has done more than it was expected to do. It's great to always have a nice season after really bad seasons so you give to the people affected time to recover.
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#419 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 2:31 pm

Isaac kinda looks a replica of Isaac of 2000 , except his eye is still cloudy at the moment.
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#420 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Sep 30, 2006 4:56 pm

Isaac I would agree looks about 70 knots. Also hopefully this El nino is gone next year.
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