The Tail End of Front

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cycloneye
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The Tail End of Front

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 9:11 am

Miami NWS Long Range Loop

There is anything right now that shows circulation but sometimes during this time of the year development occurs at the tail ends of fronts.Let's see what this tail end does in the comming days.It may not do anything but never say never in the tropics.

Miami NWS Short Range Loop
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 30, 2006 11:14 am

I agree Luis, its flaring up in the Bahamas pretty nicely this morning. Delray Beach saw a nice thunderstorm late last night as the activity is hugging the SE Coast of Florida (while the rest of the state is dry). I'll be watching it closely :D
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#3 Postby Nimbus » Sat Sep 30, 2006 11:26 am

Hope the convection does not persist long enough for the forecast ridge to develop north of it.

Low level winds 9 hours ago.

http://tinyurl.com/fs3hg

And now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#4 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Sep 30, 2006 11:54 am

Keep an eye on it. Sometimes, that's how tropical storms and hurricanes form. That's how Alicia formed in 1983.
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Sat Sep 30, 2006 1:05 pm

it would move out to sea even if something formed.
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chadtm80

#6 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Sep 30, 2006 2:54 pm

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 30, 2006 4:24 pm

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/456x ... 0069301719

Instability is present, lots of convection are present. Persistence is the key. Cold front must dissipate before anything happens, but it sure looks like a hot spot for development over the next few days.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 30, 2006 7:18 pm

DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF
73W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N68W
SW TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MIAMI. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W ATLC W OF A
LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N67W AND E OF 79W
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. JUST TO THE E IS A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY THE N
PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM
25N65W TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 62W 68W.


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

The above is from the 8:05 PM Discussion.

As you can read from it,it is a mess right now with several features in the Western Atlantic,so nothing is imminent here at this time to start to get organized.But let's keep watching the tail end of the front to see if with time something gets going.
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#9 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun Oct 01, 2006 3:37 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg

I think we could get something out of this. The convection has persisted and increased. Also that big bulge of convection could split from the front aswell.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 01, 2006 1:02 pm

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#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 01, 2006 4:12 pm

It does appear to be breaking off of the front. I think we need to watch this area over the next couple of days as a ridge builds in over the Eastern CONUS
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:08 am

convection still firing this morning in the Eastern Bahamas and it looks to be nearly seperated from the front now and is stationary. It should begin to move back towards the west as ridging builds in to the north.

Any chances here?
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#13 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:41 am

The Atlantic is completely hostile at this time. Autumnal westerly winds aloft are prevalent throughout the majority of the ocean. The only chance of development for the next week or so is the system SW of the Azores. If an area of low pressure develops in the Bahamas during the next couple of days, the only way it could survive is by moving NE away from the United States, as it will move in tandem with the SW flow aloft.

I'd say the Main Developmental Region (directly east of the Lesser Antilles) is now closed for development as there is not a single area of high pressure aloft anywhere in the ocean.

Watch the Caribbean after the 10th of the month...
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:19 pm

Not all of the Atlantic is hostile. In fact where the tail end of the front is, the UL winds are becoming increasingly favorable. I will watch this area for possible development:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

8:05 TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N66W
SW ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:27 pm

2:05pm TWD

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
VERY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR IS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY JUST OFF
THE SE US AND FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST. PERHAPS MORE INTERESTING
WEATHER IS AT THE SURFACE WHERE FRESH NE FLOW IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SRN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS...WITH A
1027MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM ITS CENTER NEAR
BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA. AVAILABLE CMAN/BUOY OBSERVATIONS OFF
FLORIDA GENERALLY SHOW 15-20 KT ENE/NE WINDS. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
QUASI-STATIONARY N OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED SHORT PERIOD NE WIND
WAVES WILL BUILD ACROSS FL AND EXPOSED BEACHES IN THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
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#16 Postby boca » Mon Oct 02, 2006 3:39 pm

Maybe that front will back up towards S Florida and give us some rain with the high building north of Florida wouldn't the high bridge the front and force it back westward.
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