Bay of Campeche...

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Johnny
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Bay of Campeche...

#1 Postby Johnny » Tue Sep 19, 2006 7:59 am

Nice blow up of convectiion in the Bay of Campeche this morning. Any thoughts?


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Nimbus
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#2 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:37 am

The BOC blob looks a little further north this morning. I wonder if it has upper air support?
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:42 am

I've been wondering about this. JB had been chirping about possible western GOM development from the remnant of Lane, a decaying frontal boundary, and wave energy coming in from the Caribbean ... but in the last day or so he hasn't mentioned it at all. In fact, he is now talking SE Gulf action.

The GFS has suggested in the last few runs some precip masses in this area but I don't know enough to discern if it would be any sort of tropical development.

Regardless ... I guess it's worth watching, eh?
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#4 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:48 am

Should blow-off like the last one.

West Atlantic is very negative in 2006.
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#5 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 19, 2006 8:53 am

Portastorm wrote:I've been wondering about this. JB had been chirping about possible western GOM development from the remnant of Lane, a decaying frontal boundary, and wave energy coming in from the Caribbean ... but in the last day or so he hasn't mentioned it at all. In fact, he is now talking SE Gulf action.

The GFS has suggested in the last few runs some precip masses in this area but I don't know enough to discern if it would be any sort of tropical development.

Regardless ... I guess it's worth watching, eh?


What did he say about SE Gulf action? Area coming from, timeline etc>?
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#6 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 19, 2006 9:05 am

caneman wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I've been wondering about this. JB had been chirping about possible western GOM development from the remnant of Lane, a decaying frontal boundary, and wave energy coming in from the Caribbean ... but in the last day or so he hasn't mentioned it at all. In fact, he is now talking SE Gulf action.

The GFS has suggested in the last few runs some precip masses in this area but I don't know enough to discern if it would be any sort of tropical development.

Regardless ... I guess it's worth watching, eh?


What did he say about SE Gulf action? Area coming from, timeline etc>?


I should have clarified ... sorry. Didn't meant to alarm anyone. He is not suggesting any tropical development ... just the ol' "areas to watch" thing.

He says the front in the Gulf will leave a trof in the SE Gulf. Also sees high pressure building in and a trof split, along with wave energy coming in at lower latitudes.
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#7 Postby Johnny » Wed Sep 20, 2006 12:19 pm

It looks like our cluster of storms are still hanging around down there.




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#8 Postby LaBreeze » Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:35 pm

One local met mentioned the fact that something may have to be watched in the western GOM due to those cluster of clouds. He didn't go any further, but for him to mention it sort of surprised me - he is never an alarmist of any sort.
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#9 Postby zaqary » Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:26 pm

Afternoon thunderstorms.
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#10 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:28 pm

could it interact with the "wind shift?" (cold front for yall in the north)
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#11 Postby zaqary » Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:30 pm

I dont think so. Atlantic is quiet besides the tropical wave by the cape verdes. And those 2 recurving cyclones.
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#12 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 01, 2006 2:41 pm

High pressure building in over the gulf again, this would be an area to watch.
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#13 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 03, 2006 7:26 pm

Nice IR shots to glance at even if there is little interest in this area.
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#14 Postby Rainband » Tue Oct 03, 2006 7:34 pm

Our locals mentioned it as something to watch
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:33 pm

I think it should be watched. Current wind shear and tendency does not support rapid development but with the building High I would watch it.
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#16 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:23 pm

Upper level winds are unfavorable for development.
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#17 Postby tailgater » Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:48 am

There's quite a twist to the low level clouds and pressures are lower than yesterday in the extreme southern BOC., upper levels are not favorable and this system seems to be moving westward so I guess it has very little chance of developing.
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#18 Postby teal61 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:57 am

As of noon central, there is still a nice area of convection in the BOC. Might be worth keeping an eye on.
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#19 Postby Cookiely » Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:14 pm

Wish all that nice rain which drift my way. I'm getting tired of watering.
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#20 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:55 pm

It has the look, but 2006 should sap it as it has every single BOC developer this year.
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