Chances that Isaac is the last named Atlantic storm?

GraysonDave · #1 Postby **GraysonDave** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:29 am

I have a "friend" who can get 16-1 odds that Isaac is the last named storm (real money). Seems like a chance to make a good payoff for little money risked. What say you?

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:30 am

Take the bet - you will win. I imagine we will see about 2 more named storms this season.

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:35 am

Too early to say "done." Nevertheless, it will be great to end this way such a wonderful season for the US, little damage and not many casualties. Furthermore, the Gulf coast has been able to have a nice year to recover from 2005, which is great for them. Sometimes I don't understand some people in the forum. No one wants to be hit by a hurricane, but when we have a season when there is no hurricane hitting the US, then it's a boring season. I think some people just want to feel the rush of being in the path of a hurricane, but no one wants the consequences!!!

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 1:23 pm

Chances are pretty low that Isaac will be the last storm. We have 2 months to go. Seems unlikely that we won't at least have 1-2 more storms in October and maybe 1 in November. Even a named STS would count.

#5 Postby **Buck** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 3:58 pm

Slim to none!

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 3:58 pm

My guess for October: 3 named storms - 2 hurricanes (1 major).

Recurve · #7 Postby **Recurve** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:30 pm

Not likely. Named storm in October and November are common even in lower-activity years.
Why would the odds be against climatology? Some bookmaker hasn't read the odds right.

#8 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 4:48 pm

I don't think we will see any more named storms this year. It really has been a good year. No one having a bad hurricane come to see them but Bermuda. And that my friends is a good year to me. It has been a ruff few years. Everyone needed a break. But the west coast got it bad this year. I have always believe that when they have a lot of storms we don't have that many bad ones. In most cases it is true. But not always. It is like the storms pulled the energy form the east. I know it didn't but it sounded good. LOL But just be thankfully we didn't have what we had the last few years. :wink:

gilbert88 · #9 Postby **gilbert88** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 6:42 pm

That's just... too optimistic to be taken seriously. But I liked this season too.

Calasanjy · #10 Postby **Calasanjy** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 6:45 pm

My predictions are that there will be one more tropical storm and a Category 2 hurricane in the Caribbean/Gulf in October, but no activity in November. Also, the December storms that have become common in recent years will not be making a repeat appearance this season.

But the west coast got it bad this year. I have always believe that when they have a lot of storms we don't have that many bad ones. In most cases it is true. But not always. It is like the storms pulled the energy form the east. I know it didn't but it sounded good. LOL But just be thankfully we didn't have what we had the last few years.

Yes, there is a climatological basis for this. For example, a ENSO phase has been developing in recent months, providing fuel for storms in the Eastern Pacific and creating hostile shear throughout the entire Atlantic basin. Also, most of the years since 1995, even in ENSO-neutral years, activity in the Atlantic has been heightened at the expense of Eastern Pacific systems, a phenomenon known as the multidecadal oscillation. If you examine storm data for the EastPac in the years that the Atlantic was lackluster in the 70s, 80s, and early 90s, you'll notice that the activity in the EastPac was greater in those years.

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:27 pm

I think we still have 1-2 storms left

GraysonDave · #12 Postby **GraysonDave** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:51 pm

Recurve wrote:Not likely. Named storm in October and November are common even in lower-activity years.
Why would the odds be against climatology? Some bookmaker hasn't read the odds right.

I probably didn't explain it well, but in this case "the bookie" thinks that Isaac is NOT the last named storm. If "my friend" accepts this bet, he will risk $6 for a possible $100 payout if there are no more named storms. If there is another storm, "my friend" loses the $6.

HurricaneBill · #13 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:52 pm

Except for 1993 and 2002, most El Nino years have seen at least one named storm beyond this point.

In fact, some years have even produced late-season hurricanes in the open Atlantic.

1991: Hurricane Grace
1992: Hurricane Frances
1994: Hurricane Florence

Jim Cantore · #14 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Oct 02, 2006 9:53 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
1991: Hurricane Grace

and look what that turned into.

Deputy Van Halen · #15 Postby **Deputy Van Halen** » Tue Oct 03, 2006 1:13 am

HurricaneBill wrote:

1991: Hurricane Grace

and look what that turned into.

Yeah, a George Clooney movie. God help us! :lol:

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Tue Oct 03, 2006 1:45 am

Deputy Van Halen wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:

1991: Hurricane Grace

and look what that turned into.

Yeah, a George Clooney movie. God help us!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is the funniest post on this board in quite awhile. :lol:

Chances that Isaac is the last named Atlantic storm?

Chances that Isaac is the last named Atlantic storm?

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