Wilma Revised

[FrontRunner]

I question the dollar figures attatched to both Charley and Wilma, after being in those both and Andrew. Charley, too small, no populated areas till Orlando. Wilma, the same, Everglades City, no big deal. As far as impact on the east coast for Wilma, boils down to shoddy construction. There is no way Wilma or Charley's destruction was even close to half of what Andrew inflicted, not even weighing in the LA. landfall of Andy. Witnessed all three firsthandedly, and it does not figure.

The dollar vaules adjusted for inflation are really the ones to be looked at when making comparisons between historical storms. You question Charley and Wilma when comparing them to Andrew. Keep in mind, Andrew was in essence still over twice as costly than Wilma using the inflation adjusted dollar amounts, so he's still in a different leage than her. [/b]

[Opal storm]

Derek is right Wilma was no different than Katrina,the only difference was is that those 2 storms hit areas with different vulnerabilities.Katrina hit a surge prone area,Wilma hit a area more vulnerable to wind.IMO Wilma still would've been a extremely costly and devestating storm no matter where it could have hit.

[MGC]

Take away the surge damage and Katrina would not have cracked the top ten IMO. The wind damage was typical of a Cat-3 here on the Miss coast. BTW, the 81 Billion is insured losses. In Mississippi alone the total damage costs (insured and uninsured) for Katrina have been estimated well over 100 Billion. Throw in the damage in La and Al and we are most likely pushing 200 B......MGC

[CrazyC83]

The 81B is total losses, insured was last estimated around 40.6B. However, I do not think the 2 to 1 rule applies here as there was enormous infrastructure damage and many of the areas affected (especially in New Orleans, i.e. Lower 9th Ward) are poorer areas that many don't have insurance I would assume. Hence, a 3-to-1 ratio seems better with Katrina, or even a 7-to-2 ratio.

With Wilma, on the other hand (like Charley), there was not a great deal of public infrastructure damage and insurance was commonplace among most, since the hardest damage was in more affluent areas. Hence 2 to 1 may be a high estimate.

[Derek Ortt]

2 to 1 surprisingly is about right for S Fla (a lot of poor people and mobile homes were affected)

IMO, the ratio for Katrina should have been 3 to 1 given the lagre amount of flood damage, as was used for Floyd in 1999. A 3 to 1 ratio would have yielded 121.8 billion

[Derek Ortt]

Also, this very high damage figure should convince people that these canes hitting from the south are the most dangerous. STOP LOOKING EAST IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH FLORIDA... MOST CANES COME FROM THE SOUTH.

Not only do most come from the south, but those that do, tend to impact EVERYBODY, not just a portion as was the case in Andrew and Katrina (Miami version)

[Ixolib]

MS endured the brunt of a 30 foot tidal surge

And therein lies the extreme difference. Had Katrina been a wind event only - as with Wilma - she would barely be a speck on the historical window at this time. I can say for sure my life would NOT have been turned completely upside down if Katrina had been a "wind event only"...

(why we have large cities on the hurricane coast is beyond me)

Excellent point!! While I can't attest to the "other" large cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, there is no doubt that the paradise (and attraction) of South Florida DOES come with a price....

[gatorcane]

Also, this very high damage figure should convince people that these canes hitting from the south are the most dangerous. STOP LOOKING EAST IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH FLORIDA... MOST CANES COME FROM THE SOUTH.

Not only do most come from the south, but those that do, tend to impact EVERYBODY, not just a portion as was the case in Andrew and Katrina (Miami version)

Yep couldn't agree with you more. Its a big misconception of the common opinion here in S. Florida that the big ones come in from the East. Not tru at all. In fact that October is South Florida's worst month with many W. Caribbean storms pulling N and E into South Florida (where western Cuba does little to weaken a system unlike Eastern Cuba which is more mountainous) So my guard is certainly way up still until we get into at least into November.

[Downdraft]

Same reason Los Angeles and San Francisco are built on an active earthquake fault, Seattle sits at the base of an active volcano and New Orleans levees are being rebuilt to the same standards as before. People think they are above Mother Nature, it wouldn't be politically correct to call them stupid.

[superfly]

Same reason Los Angeles and San Francisco are built on an active earthquake fault, Seattle sits at the base of an active volcano and New Orleans levees are being rebuilt to the same standards as before. People think they are above Mother Nature, it wouldn't be politically correct to call them stupid.

That's not the reason. The same reasons why they are vulnerable to natural disasters are also the reasons why they are desirable ecomonically. The San Andreas fault line runs more or less parallel to the California coast so where else would you build the ports except near the fault line? New Orleans lies at the mouth of the largest river in North America and was (2nd now) the largest port in the US. As far as protection goes, people in New Orleans have been calling for levee improvement for years now.

[Normandy]

Also, this very high damage figure should convince people that these canes hitting from the south are the most dangerous. STOP LOOKING EAST IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH FLORIDA... MOST CANES COME FROM THE SOUTH.

Not only do most come from the south, but those that do, tend to impact EVERYBODY, not just a portion as was the case in Andrew and Katrina (Miami version)

Again, S Fl's two worst hurricanes intensity wise struck the Peninsula from the East, so I dont agree wiht your "STOP LOOKING EAST" theory. Also, you saying that canes that hit from the south "tend to impact everybody, not just a portion" is wrong also. The size of the hurricane matters, and a variety of hurricanes with a variety of sizes have hit from both the East and the West. S FL was lucky Andrew wasn't large.

[Derek Ortt]

so Andrew and the keys canes hit from the east

2 out of how many? And how many people did they impact?

The answer to both is NOT MANY

You cannot look for the exceptions, have to look where statistically the chances are highest. Even most of the "east" canes, like Cleo and TS Ernesto, actually hit from the south

[jpigott]

so Andrew and the keys canes hit from the east

2 out of how many? And how many people did they impact?

The answer to both is NOT MANY

You cannot look for the exceptions, have to look where statistically the chances are highest. Even most of the "east" canes, like Cleo and TS Ernesto, actually hit from the south

While it is true that "most" of SFL tropical systems come from the S and SW (like Wilma and Ernesto), I have to agree with Normandy about the intensity of the storms being more severe as a whole when from the E and SE. Two hurricanes not mentioned from the east the were really bad (in addition to Andrew and the Labor Day Storm) were the 28' Lake Okeechobee hurricane which killed something like 1800-2500 people, and then there is the 47' hurricane into Broward/Palm Beach County which had 155mph sustained winds at Lighthouse Point

[Opal storm]

Had Katrina been a wind only storm it still would've made the top 5 IMO.Katrina's wind damage was extremely widespread.I went to Hattiesburg just after Katrina and the damage there was unbelievable,especially considering how far inland that is.I would imagine that even if there was no surge the coastal communities would have still been devestated.

[PTPatrick]

Not to flog a dead hourse here...but could scarcely see any wind damage near Pascgoula, because the storm surge obliterated EVERYTHING on the coast that would have delt with the extreme highest winds. Doesnt mean they werent there. I cant compare roof damage for Katrina to Ivan and Georges because, well, after Ivan we got a new metal roof. And tree damage wise, well, George had a lot of down trees, but then he lasted for 24 hours AND, was the first real bad wind in the area in about 12 years when it hit. Ivan also had a good deal of wind damage in the Pascagoula area, but nothing else. I think like my famiy, a lot of new roof went on that area after Ivan. I think Ivan did help to thin out some of the weak trees, thus at least in that area leaving a little less in the way of wind damage.

In any case, i know my folks went through the eye of Katrina in a well built brick house just west of Hattiesburg(Columbia), and said it was like armageddon, windows breaking, rain coming down walls where roof was damaged. They had to cut themselves out of the neighborhood they were staying in with a chainsaw. My mom and dad went through many-a big one, including Frederic's eyewall, RIGHT at the MS/AL state line, less than 2 miles from the gulf and they were quite shocked after the ordeal.
Bottom line, you cant separate the effects of surge and wind, they feed off of each other as well as the individual geography of the area(i.e. Southern MS being heavily pine forested, whilst south FL being heavily cleared of many trees to make way for the many subdivisions and housing developments)

[Blown Away]

SFL gets almost as many storms from the SE (Andrew, Frances, Jeanne, etc.) as it does from the S or SW (Cleo, Wilma, etc.)

[Derek Ortt]

Frances and Jeanne are NOT south Florida hurricanes. Those are central Florida hurricanes.

My statement only applies to Dade and Broward storms, not FL keys or central Florida, where I concede there is a slightly different impact pattern

[AussieMark]

wasn't Miami hurricane of 1926 from the east

altho there are exceptions most seem to come from south

i.e King, Donna, Cleo, Wilma

[jpigott]

Frances and Jeanne are NOT south Florida hurricanes. Those are central Florida hurricanes.

My statement only applies to Dade and Broward storms, not FL keys or central Florida, where I concede there is a slightly different impact pattern

Derek - what's your take on hurricane impacts (E/SE v. S/SW) for Palm Beach County. You say your statement only applies to Dade and Broward storms and that Frances and Jeanne are central Florida storms. How would you classify historically hurricane impacts to Palm Beach County??

[gatorcane]

Frances and Jeanne are NOT south Florida hurricanes. Those are central Florida hurricanes.

My statement only applies to Dade and Broward storms, not FL keys or central Florida, where I concede there is a slightly different impact pattern

Derek - what's your take on hurricane impacts (E/SE v. S/SW) for Palm Beach County. You say your statement only applies to Dade and Broward storms and that Frances and Jeanne are central Florida storms. How would you classify historically hurricane impacts to Palm Beach County??

Derek I agree. Jeanne and Frances hit near Ft. Pierce and Port St Lucie NORTH of Palm Beach County. They are NOT South Florida storms. I don't know how many times i have also told people that. Were there some effects in South Florida? Sure but South Florida is Palm Beach County South along the East Coast of Florida in my book.