New NWPac system: Rumbia

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Chacor
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New NWPac system: Rumbia

#1 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 03, 2006 2:34 am

The JMA has picked up on a new NWPac system (97W) and expect a tropical storm (next name on the list Rumbia) within 24 hours...

WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 20.0N 153.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 21.8N 153.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT =

The JTWC's 02/22Z ABPW called it a FAIR area.

Image

(PS, not sure how exactly threads get started, but I'm assuming this is how. Heheh.)
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:47 am

This is the 998hPa TD they were not forecasting to develop last night.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 20.0N 153.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE LOW CLOUD VORTEX CENTER HAS APPROACHED TO DENSE OVERCAST AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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#3 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:24 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 20.6N 154.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 22.6N 153.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 051200UTC 23.9N 152.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 061200UTC 25.9N 150.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT =

Image
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#4 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:34 am

Wow, that was quick. The JTWC's still only carrying it as a FAIR area (03/06Z), and NRL still calls it 97W.
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#5 Postby bostonseminole » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:02 am

so are these two systems going to collide? maybe right over me?
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#6 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:07 am

Another Fujiwhara? What are the chances of two happening within a relatively short span of one another in almost the same place (Wukong/Sonamu)?
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#7 Postby Coredesat » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:33 am

Looks like they're headed right for each other. If those tracks verify, I think there's a pretty good chance of some kind of interaction.
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#8 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 03, 2006 12:10 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 031700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/031651ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 153.5E TO 24.0N 151.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 153.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.9N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY
550 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030956Z SSMIS
PASS DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A 200MB LOW WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED
BROAD LLCC, LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041700Z.//

No surprise here, they were probably wondering why the hell JMA had called something they didn't even think had a GOOD chance a TS.
Last edited by Chacor on Tue Oct 03, 2006 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 03, 2006 2:41 pm

40kts, 990hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 21.3N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 22.7N 152.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 051800UTC 24.1N 151.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 061800UTC 27.4N 150.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT =
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#10 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:23 pm

WTPQ30 RJTD 040000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

WTPQ20 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 21.9N 152.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 23.1N 151.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 060000UTC 25.2N 150.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 070000UTC 29.7N 149.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT =

STS soon, then.
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#11 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:15 am

Appears to have spit out a naked swirl:

Image

This may be what kept the JTWC from upgrading to 20W.
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#12 Postby RattleMan » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:16 am

04/0233 UTC 21.9N 153.0E ST2.5/2.5 RUMBIA
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 04, 2006 4:32 am

This doesn't looks like a tropical storm.

Image
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#14 Postby WindRunner » Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:27 am

Pressure down another 5hPa, though no increase in the wind speed.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 22.0N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 22.8N 151.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 060600UTC 24.7N 150.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 070600UTC 28.9N 149.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
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#15 Postby RattleMan » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:48 pm

Now TD20W on NRL.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:52 pm

HURAKAN wrote:This doesn't looks like a tropical storm.

Image


Looking much better at the moment.
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#17 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:18 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 22.2N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 24.2N 151.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 061800UTC 30.3N 150.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 071800UTC 35.3N 158.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
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#18 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:35 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 23.2N 152.4E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 250NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 28.3N 151.1E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 070600UTC 36.0N 153.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 080600UTC 36.4N 172.4E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

Image

JTWC is still carrying this as a TD. NWS WFO Guam, on the other hand, is calling it a 50 mph TS (an email to them resulted in Roger Edson replying to me that they don't use JTWC 100% of the time, I wonder why... :lol:)
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#19 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:54 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 23.6N 152.0E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 230NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 30.0N 150.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 071200UTC 36.8N 156.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 081200UTC 37.3N 173.6E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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#20 Postby Chacor » Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:12 am

This one's gone too.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0617 RUMBIA (0617)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 30N 151E
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 994HPA
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